Midlands Ice Age

Totally undecided this month, so have gone midstream. Last year I went v low, and I have been struggling ever since to catch up again. So, as I would hate to miss a cold month entirely I will plump for 4.8C, just below average. Rainfall that's easier!!, with the south based jet i go for 105mms, allowing for some dryness later on, MIA

My maximum today was also 3,8C. My monthly rainfall is 65.4mms , assuming no more falls between now and morning. Over to the CET thread to input my Dec values.... One of the most difficult IMO MIA

Ended up with a minimum of -4.4C here (coldest this winter) Cloudy now and temp risen to 0C. MIA

In my frost hollow garden I'm at -3.4C already. (20.15) I think it will be very cold tomorrow morning. MIA

Snow takes out Germany in one day! MIA

Following Aleman's post, ............ suddenly the Baltic bursts into life - with 10fold increase in one day. https://cdn.fmi.fi/marine-observations/products/ice-charts/latest-full-color-ice-chart.pdf More generally there was a big move on the NSIDC snow charts towards Europe Today the ice lurches forward after 5 days of stagnation with a gain of 224k Km2....whilst the temperature increases slightly. MIA

Temp dropped to 3.7C here as the rain eased this pm ... Thought I saw one or two 'blobs' on the windscreen. After finding out it was blobby further North it could have been valid MIA

The only way that could happen is if the Azores High moved rapIdly NE into Scandy... Oh wait a minute its starting to happen MIA

Forget the above post.. - There is a link embeded in your post to the pdf I used last year. Thanks MIA

Thanks Aleman for the above... My link for Baltic Sea ice says that they are having technical difficulties and that they will sort it asap!!!! So I looked around a bit and found this page http://baltice.org/wms?SERVICE=WMS&REQUEST=GetMap&FORMAT=image/png&TRANSPARENT=TRUE&STYLES=&VERSION=1.3.0&LAYERS=fmi:ice:icechart_iceareas&WIDTH=3712&HEIGHT=1515&CRS=EPSG:3857&BBOX=152248.9715395704,8502645.397185039,4691996.955451551,10355478.962817218 Unfortunately it will not allow me to copy in here. (as its not https).. Can you see it by linking to it.? It shows accurate ice depths and I think is the one that I used to use, but the old one was a pdf and more easy to view. You have saved my posting the details, and that I was checking out. It is a bit strange, as you say, that the very cold weather has made little difference to some evaluations of the sea ice. MIA

Not done an update for 3 or 4 days... Mainly because the sea ice has been so variable (on the whole negative) , and the snow is only slowly moving into Europe. I have also been busy looking after young Grandkids all weekend. NIce, but not good at 80 years old. However I believe 'things they are a changing'. (especially written here for me and Meth and some ol'timers).... Very apt really (see below) - Firstly, NH snow situation - Today Friday A slow steady haphazard movement westwards into Europe, rather than a dramatic blizzard - probably best describes it. We could see the blizzard happen to Europe later this week as the low drives into central European areas . I can also see a few pixels into Scottish Highlands today. However on the US side - no real changes. Meanwhile sea ice has stagnated for 4 or 5 days now - and is no longer in the top 2 positions. Losses of -56K, +43k, +58k, and yesterday -12K have left the extent unchanged, and slipping down the league table to 5 -7th lowest in the last 18 years according to Jaxa - (ASIF). not by any means disastrous, but after 6 days with little change it doesn't look as strong. So why might this have happened.? My thoughts are that 3 things have impacted this. 1) the central Arctic basin is now just about full, and the chart above shows that normally in early December the ice extents seem to merge somewhat, before outer areas are cold enough to freeze 2) We have had a very rapid refreeze this year and most of the 'available; ocean is now frozen. 3) In the last 5 days the weather over the Polar regions has changed, What were easterlies have become westerlies, This has stopped the ice progress in the Barents, but it is still to affect the Bering Sea because it was blocked by the Aleutian low pressure. The outer areas are also 'in limbo'. The most striking of the events this year has been the cold pool developing in Scandinavia. This has not shown in the Baltic sea ice graphs yet, but it is probable that ice increase will occur this week. Also, the early Scandy cold has not been seen for a decade or two really, Apart from 2010 - but that was remarkable in its cause. It used to occur fairly regularly back in 'my day'. Lets hope that it is omen for this winter in the UK, as easterly winds in the UK always (or so it seemed) brought snowfall. All for now MIA

Great news TM.. (?) sorry for the miserable weather of course... but it does mean that the colder air is filtering south. Similar news from here where the light rain continues, but the news is that the temp is now down to 4.6C (from 8.6C at 08:00). So that is quite a drop for the time of day. MIA

That's more like it.. As we reach December we see 'white' over large areas of Siberia for the 850's in the above charts. This means we have got below -30C for the first time this season. It also probably means that the strat Canadian warming is having an effect. Look at how relatively warm they are in NE Canada. MIA

Yes grotty day here also yesterday. Started dryish but light rain moved in from midday with the temp around 5C. Early evening turned a bit foggy., but cleared a bit as the evening progressed and rain set in. Temperatures rose slowly overnight to a maximum of 8.6C this morning at 07:00. Rainfall 5.2mms, giving me a lowish, compared to most, (thankfully) 64mms of rainfall this month so far. Now rain has set in again, as the wind veers from WNW to NNE., since when the temperatures are now falling again - currently 7.1, - and forecast to fall further to 4C by 2PM. Of interest is that 30 - 40 miles further north Polar Continental reports temperatures have not risen above 5C, for the last 24hrs, so Bham was just about the northern most that the milder air encroached before moving back south again. Hopefully a few snowflakes later this week for most of us, to start the winter season going. MIA

Welcome back BFTV...... You will be very welcome on here. MIA

BIg leap forward of the snow cover into Europe. An even bigger one in 3 days time. Sea ice has stopped increasing for the last 2 days, and total Arctic ice has fallen to just below 2021 and 2022, again. Expect some large increases next week. Continued 'stasis' whilst the temp is still low, Beginning to look like its the new normal. as I noticed it last year also. Very odd.! MIA

John.. Thanks for the post... I was wondering weather to reply or not. (outside scope of thread and we do not want CC introduced into here as well ) I am also interested (rather than worrying) into what has happened and I have done some research into the situation , rather than just accepting info reported on the media//internet. Yesterday, whilst looking into this, I had TV on the BBC2 climate change documentary progs on the Arctic ice decline. They, in all their interest of their serious 'science' are still using Prof Wadham's remarks about the total elimination of the Arctic by 2013i , as being extremely likely, if not probable. So it made me do even more evaluation of your statements. Firstly from the ASIF I have looked back at the charts for the last 24 months. (that covers when the Huna Tonga erupted by the way 20 months ago), as before that the Antartic had been reasonably stable, (in its variations governed by the ENSO (?)).. Also - it is almost exactly 12 months since the Antarctic ice pack first showed the major drop in its sea ice. I attach graphs showing actual details - So it was around (below) average until Nov 22 and then dropped to bottom place for quite a while ... then step forward to today - It now appears to be recovering. So the 'drop' lasted almost 18 months starting in May/June 22 (quickie), but not really affecting things until Nov 22. This is exactly the time when any effects from Hunga Tongs would be expected to show up.... (6 months to 18 months - as forecast for a huge increase (25%) in H2O in the stratosphere in the southern hemisphere - according to climate change..... Furthermore the tropospheric short term could account for the earlier 'blip'. But that would have soon got washed out.! So, provided if it is a temporary phenomena it fits in the CC pattern very well!! I did go into more detail looking at the areas in more detail, which showed huge swings, with the 'Pacific' sector worst affected , but felt the overall view showed things quite well. No more from me ... happy to go to another thread. MIA

Following on, as promised, a simplified view of the N Hemispheric Arctic weather!!! I think we have all been watching the probable development of a cold spell in Europe, according to the gospel of St GFS !!! It still hasn't happened but it looks as if it has got the N hemispheric profile more correct than most at the moment. Certainly since my last update 8 days ago, it has been pretty good over the Arctic circle. So, very tentatively, I will attempt an evaluation of this complicated change in the northern atmospheric profile, and give the GFS view as to where it is leading. Firstly as already posted in my previous post, the temperature has fallen to its historic low (for time of year) average. This has come about as a result of a fairly slack Arctic profile allowing temperatures to drop in the still cold nights. (was accurately predicted). Typically there are temps of below -40C from N Canada to central Siberia. (at min) , to -20C maximums. The current GFS charts are below (day 1-3)- - Characterised by a slack relatively high pressure central portion, and protected by 4 major depressions. One over the Aleutians - blocking off the Pacific, one off eastern Greenland (filling) pushing WAA up into the Arctic as it traverses into Scandinavia, one over northern Canada supplying WAA up through Greenland, and one connecting to the Scandy trough, from central southern Asia. The major overall effect is to cool Europe into the already cold Scandinavian high pressure, and to spread more cold air into China also to start to move colder air into most of North America. Still no real signs of the southern-most jet really firing up, in the USA (or Atlantic via downstream mechanisms). Move forward 5 days - As can be seen the 4 depressions are now down to just one, out over the Bering Sea which is starting to warm up the eastern Arctic. However elsewhere we have lost all momentum with slack high and low pressure areas close together, allowing the Arctic to keep its colder air over the pole whilst pushing cold air masses into Europe, China and North America, and all this time, Greenland continues to overheat!! There is still no sign of the southern jet-stream anywhere near our latitudes. The only one into Europe is very impressive in that it is a reverse jet stream stretching back to China marked by a line of snowfall. - A long shot, IMO Onto first week of December (day 10) - Changes are small over the Artic, but further south we are seeing substantial differences, with high pressure dominating in the main. So, nothing has changed too much for the Arctic, but the low over Bering has filled somewhat and has moved westwards to allow colder air to be pulled out of the Arctic, and into the Pacific based countries. The major change for the Atlantic basin is the appearance of high pressure from Iceland via Scandy to Central Asia, This has the effect of re-enforcing the afore-mentioned reverse jet stream into Europe, with an increased band of precipitation along its length. Colder air persists in Europe and central Asia. and the anomalies show warm/heat. red- hot in Northern Russia,- remember it will still be below -25C average temperature there. In N America we see a central warmer area surrounded by cold in both the north, west and east. - Pretty average overall, and with no severe outbreaks of colder weather, just yet. High pressure is generally in the ascendency. These charts represent major changes to the 'normal' winter weather patterns as seen over the last 30 years. The normal atmospheric profiles (including the polar vortex) look completely discarded. Lets see what happens - it could still be very wrong. MIA

Back to snow and ice in the NH after a 5 day break.... I will be doing a separate post on the weather outlook later, in a further note.... The last update 5 days ago, seems to have been the last of the larger increase of extent for just now as most of the inner areas are pretty well full, We now seem to be entering the 'stasis' until serious ice starts to freeze in the outer areas. (Early December is the normal time, but we seem a bit earlier this year). Total increases of +58K, +64K, +59K. +30K and today -30K have left us still top of the last 5 years during this time. Jaxa has kept us between 11th and 16th during its 18 years review. |(ie 3rd to 8th highest) The slow down has happened despite another large drop in temperature in the last 5days. DMI above 80 degrees now show we are at 'normal' for the last 50 years. This is for the inner Arctic circle. This average temperature is now at -25C. Ice production carried on for three days in the normal way (for this year) in Barents, Bering Chukchi and Kara due to persistent N Easterlies, and was lower in the N American sea areas. However a change seems to have happened in the last 2 days. Strong SW are now sweeping into the North Atlantic arctic sea areas as a vigorous depression forms to the east of Greenland and this seems to be pushing the ice back east again, over the Central Arctic., Speaking of the Central Arctic it would seem as though the Central Arctic sea basin (CAB) (above 80 degrees) has nearly hit the 'maximum' at the earliest for many years. The small area to the NW of Svalbard is the last area to freeze out. It is always the most difficult. Possibly of interest to some is that the temperatures are looking to drop further (possibly due to the slack areas of pressure over the rest of the Arctic).. Snow is now expected to sweep into Europe and into America (below 48) in the next few days, to put the snow anomalies back to normal, and possibly to severely impact the northern Hemisphere above 60 degrees north. . Yesterday - As can be seen the snow is already moving towards Europe, and more extension both westwards and southwards seem likely. A second burst of cold air is predicted for North America, commencing over the weekend. All for now MIA

Stravaiger.. My comment related to the last 2 months performance only - Which has bounced back strongly - as shown by the chart above... I too am interested in the total sea ice, but it can not be in this thread. (which for a reminder - is N H snow and ice). Why not (re)/open a thread and discuss it there? MIA

I think it desrved 20 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MIA

Following on from the above posts about ANTARCTIC ice and there not be a similar thread I will supply the correct info... Thanks to the ASIF Extent and Area - 2 to 3 months ago we were running at lows but there has been a recovery (against anomalies) recently . So 'doomster' reporters are somewhat out of date. I strongly 'suspect' that this drop in the Antarctic ice is caused by the H20 put out by Hunga Tonga. (time will tell). It is being researched right now. Perhaps what is of more significance is the overall sea ice totals - which have been performing strongly recently due to the Arctic sea ice performance (see late today for details.). MIA

Thanks Cambrian.. Was about to think about a similar post for the N H snow and ice thread this for this pm... This Scandy cold is getting more entrenched. Lets see what happens with the afternoons runs. MIA

thanks Metwatch, I notice someone (Dorsetbred?) posted on the Nordic thread that the temp at 1200m was -22C today at 14:00 in Finland. Today was a fairly average day for sea ice extent (+60K Km2), and snow actually spread unevenly into Poland and Ukraine so the expected westward push has started. Sea ice although a normal increase consolidated in the right areas. This included Chukchi and Bering (where the ice has filled bays on both the Alaskan and Siberian side) , as well as in the SOO. It also showed up on the Eastern shore of the southern portion of Hudson Bay.. So all looking very strong at the moment. MIA

Well I have had my 3 days of hibernation , and although it started quietly the Arctic has suddenly burst into life, possibly more quickly than forecast. To start off with the Arctic temp map (and a comparison to last year - shows a similar profile so far (with the one exaggerated increase this year), but we have now reached a stasis at more or less the same as last year. at the same point. Despite this slowdown in the last couple of days sea ice extent seems to have gone crazy... Ice has leapt into action with Jaxa (ASIF based with thanks) showing gains of 164K Km2 and (178K Km2) in the last 2 days to move this year up by no less than 6 places (from 10th lowest to 15th in the last 18years) in just 2 days. Masie is showing similar gains - of 228K Km2 yesterday, - and although todays data is not yet in, I expect a gain of at least 250)k KM2 - It is clear that a very large increase has occurred today as ice extent total has leapt to 10.3K KM2. . In its own right yesterday's data was notable as it hit the 10,000K Km2 (was 9.97K Km2) - and this at the same date as the previous 2 years., also this year it means we have frozen an extra 3 - 500K Km2 - because of the lower start figure. I am unaware that this sort of date 'stability' in the sea ice extent figures has occurred previously. It must mean something , but not sure what. Although in about 3 weeks time (early Dec) , there is a long term trend that all the yearly figures merge together.... probably when most of the 'easy' internal to the basin ice has frozen out., and before the outer ice gets going. In addition ........ I have managed a sneak preview of the weather charts to see how well the GFS predictions are turning out. So far they are almost spot on, with the USA still undergoing a snow retraction up to the 48th parallel, whilst Russia despite having a lesser amount compared to last year (see below) has suddenly, today, expanded southwards in the central and western areas (compared to previous day (and also the last year). Heavy snowfall is indeed occurring in Siberia and Scandy, as predicted. Last year However - Scandinavia is much more advanced this year. This is a picture provided by Carinthian (from his sister in Stockholm) who had just seen her first snowfall of the winter (last year) on Nov 20th!!! Whereas we have had most of Scandy covered for about 3 weeks now!!!. The colder air has just started to appear in Northern Russia and it is forecast to really get cold their in the latest 10 day charts from GFS with temps down below -50c minimum and wide areas of Europe falling below freezing. (PS... this is today's 06Z run which turned cold even in the UK.)... The latest GFS run also sees colder air crossing into the US again, as a vigorous depression forms just to the east of Hudson Bay. We will see..... MIA