19jacobob93

Is this not the same as yesterday's picture? haha Anyway, would you say the current snow and ice extent is compared to the average? It looks to me like there's a bit more than there was this time last year, but I don't know how that is compared to the average.

Yep! Queensbury is the highest parish in England, as well as having the highest school in the UK which is located near mountain. Princetown in Devon is also near the 400m mark! And Halifax isn't that low, I think the lowest point is around 120m, plus it's surrounded with hills topping out at between 200-300m, it's an amazing sight from the town when there's nothing in Halifax and the surrounding hills are topped with snow! Brighouse is probably the most disappointing place in the world when it comes to snow! It's a mere 67m asl and gets nobbut sleet when the surrounding towns (between 150m and 400m) have a fairly decent covering!

Silly me! And about Leeds getting that snow, I can imagine because it snows absolutely everywhere but Brighouse!

I'd put it at about 120m since my parents house at 99m in Brighouse got only a bit of slush, yet just up the road it settled nicely!

The centre of leeds varies between 10 and 70m asl which is rather low! Yep! Queensbury is part of Bradford and my house is at 327m, at the top of my road is Mountain which tops out at a whopping 406m! We received a fair few inches (about 3) on the 19th of Feb, I ended up building a sledge in my garage, which turned out to be too heavy and ended up plowing up the fields so it's hung from a Christmas tree in a forest where I deserted it! But it was the same with us, other lower towns received slush and sleet!

It's always a good idea to stay away from city centres as well if you're looking for snow as they can be up to 4°C warmer than the outskirts and almost 7°C warmer than rural areas! the centre of Leeds is only a mere 10m asl too so it won't fare too well during marginal conditions!

I have family who live basically at the end of the runway of Leeds Bradford who seem to get a lot of snow and I can imagine since it's the highest airport in England! And about marginal snow; in early December in 2008 I remember we had a good 2 or 3 inches of snow, yet Hipperholme 5 minutes away, had just a slight dusting on the grass and by the time we were in Brighouse there was no sign of snow what so ever! I read that the snow margin for England was on average between 140m and 160m asl for the winter months, so if you live above that (which we both do!) then we should do well! I can back this claim up as well because Brighouse at 99m asl always gets wet snow that hardly sticks, yet Wyke which is literally a 2 minute drive or a 10 minute walk away is at 155m and does very well with snow and can have inches when Brighouse has none!

It depends on where you live, and snow around Christmas time is extremely marginal! I remember in 2004 when we had blizzard conditions and a few inches of lying snow, and I could see that at the bottom of our hill there was barely anything, and there was no snow what so ever in the town 5 minutes away! We normally do extremely well though, our most recent white Christmases were 2004, a slight dusting in 2005, a bit of lying snow from a few weeks prior in 2008, 2009 and 2010!

Yeah, Leeds is less than half an hour away from us, but because it's further east, there's been many of times when showers have blown in and given Leeds a dusting, and died out before reaching us!

Well I hope so since things are yet again looking to be on the cold side this winter! We normally do well no matter what the outcome anyway (not to brag )

Both Christmases 2009 and 2010 had both laying and falling snow here, and in 2008 the snow melted a few days before Christmas from about 2 weeks prior. Could this year be the third year in a row with a white Christmas, and the fourth in a row with a significant snow fall before Christmas?

Inland areas of the south east are nearly always much colder in winter than north west Scotland thanks to the gulf stream! Low lying areas also do extremely well when it comes to cold winter nights even though they get less snow - last December there was over a foot of snow at our house (at 327m asl) and the temperature was -9°C, and as we drove to my parents (15 minutes away at just 99m asl) the temperature plummeted to -14.5°C and there was only a few inches of patchy snow! I think the cold just sinks down the hills into the valleys!

From November onwards, that's identical pretty much to last year! And I always thought the number was the percentage of the probability of the anomaly - e.g. +55 = 55% chance of being above normal, and -55 = 55% chance of being below, but i could be wrong!

To be honest I would be happy with a repeat of last year! It would have been special if it happened in say January or February, but because it happened from Novemeber, it made it unbelievable! Prior to it I would never have dreamt something like that this side of New Year! The rest of the winter was quite boring though, but we did get a few inches in late Feb, and then again in March.

I agree, but there are lag times to low solar activity, it started in 2007 but we didn't feel the effects until 2009 for example. Also the Sun isn't as simple as that; it doesn't just follow uniform cycles every so often. Although activity is starting to pick up (although barely), it is the magnetic field in the Sun (which is still falling) and the absence of the 'rush to the poles' we normally see leading up to the maximum of a 'normal' cycle that are worrying. If this continues at the same rate, the field will drop below 1500 gauss by around 2013 (when the maximum is supposed to be), and the Sun's magnetic field will no longer be strong enough for the Sun to produce sunspots. This 'rush to the poles' isn't happening this cycle (probably because of the magnetic field is too weak) and this has never been witnessed before, but it is likely the same happened just before the Maunder Minimum. If this happens, it's likely that solar cycle 25 will never happen.

Hopefully we will see warm weather with high pressure dominating next week! But I predict that September will turn out quite cool and wet. I say this mainly because the past few years (2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 is turning out the same) have all followed a pretty much identical pattern! Which is: Cold and quite dry early in the year with snowy spells in early January and then mid February. Late snowfalls around late March - early April. Spring and early summer start very warm and very dry with drought watches often issued. Moving into August we start seeing more showery weather and things cool down closer to September and it becomes rather wet and miserable (you might think this is obvious but I remember in earlier years late Augusts and early Septembers were hot, hazy and muggy but dry). Autumns are cool and wet at first but turn dry and cold with frequent frosts from mid to late September, with winter setting in early (first snow around mid to late November - it was in October in 2008!) and long blocking patterns throughout most of December leading to a white Christmas. Blocking patterns breaking down Christmas day or Boxing day (every year without fail!!!) So far 2011 is following this same pattern so far so I'm also predicting another cold winter, which should set in early - mid December. Without doubt this is caused by the continuation of a quiet (yet trying to perk up!) Sun causing changes in pressure patterns and causing blocking in winter.

I predicted a few months back on the extended outlook thread that September would be terrible! I said this because the past few years (2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 is turning out the same) have all followed a pretty much identical pattern! Which is: Cold and quite dry Januaries and then a brief snowy spell in February. Late snowfalls around late March - early April. Spring and early summer start very hot and very dry with drought watches often issued. Moving into August we start seeing more showery weather and things cool down closer to September and it becomes rather wet and miserable (you might think this is obvious but I remember in earlier years late Augusts and early Septembers were hot, hazy and muggy). Autumns are cold with frequent frosts from September, with winter setting in early (first snow around mid - late November and as early as October in 2008!) and long blocking patterns leading to a white Christmas. So far 2011 is following this same pattern so I'm also predicting a cold winter, which should set in early December.

Witnessed 2 or 3 small thunderstorms yesterday (with a strike every 3 minutes or so) merge into one huge supercell type storm with almost constant thunder! Was pretty interesting!

Pfft. The MO can't predict the weather back here on Earth more than a day in advance. NASA have actually been monitoring Mars' temperature since the '70s. Just found this which kind of explains some of it. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1720024.ece