AWD

Living in a dip within a dip so to say, I’m relatively sheltered IMBY so whilst gusty, I’m not expecting too much wind action here. Mendips to the South, Quantocks to the SW, Welsh hills to the NW, Cotswolds to the North, winds tend not to affect my location too much. It does appear those more exposed to the West/South West weather are in for a rough evening/night though, namely Devon, Cornwall, Dorset and Hampshire. No doubt there will be various disruption & damage when we all wake up in the morning and try to commute to work/school etc. I can’t see the railways, for one example, being in a good condition come the morning.

One would have thought it would be great conditions for windsurfing. (Joke obvs)

So, who’s looking forward to the end of the cold spell & more typical SW winter conditions reemerging? Best dig the wellies back out the closet I suppose!

I think you maybe a bit optimistic there. We can but hope, but the current forecast looks more like the below; There’s definitely looking likely to be a stormy finish to the weekend, and quite possibly another (albeit not so stormy for us) bout of wind around Tuesday/Wednesday. Mild definetly, but I do expect a rather lot of cloud cover in between any rainfall, at least until towards the end of the week.

Here is the 12z Arpege wind gusts forecast for Sunday night mate, much easier read here;

Anyone for a bit of night kite flying, Sunday night?

As above, interesting thing about the 15z UKV is that it brings a spell of 60mph+ gusts of winds to pretty much everyone at some point Sunday night. Firstly Ireland, Wales & the SW; Then Wales, into the Midlands and Northern England; Then into Southern Scotland and Northern Ireland, along with the borders; That’s not to say others escape either, the SE and all of Eastern England will see damaging gusts based on this model too. One saving grace which will help mitigate impacts is that it’s happening overnight at least, when many of us are tucked up in our beds or binge watching Netflix with a box of Jaffa Cakes!

Don’t worry if you hate the sun & calm weather, we all have a very disturbed afternoon & evening to look forward to late Sunday; Thats quite lengthy duration of 50mph+ gusts widely. No doubt certain areas prone to W/SW’rly winds will record higher too. Good luck on your commute to work Monday morning, particularly if that’s by rail or ferry!

Latest UKV has wind gusts widely in excess of 50mph for the majority of the UK at some point Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, plenty of areas, inland included forecast 60mph+ gusts; Plenty strong enough to cause transport & structural damage in places. Focus of any notable rainfall is across the northern half of the country, with the south seeing less rainfall here thankfully (IMBY ). Mean winds always strongest through the Irish Sea into the Lancashire & Cumbrian coastline, as well as Dumfries. Isle of Man in a prime location; One positive is that the worst does appear to pass over pretty quickly. As another poster mentioned above, although nothing notable, it’s not exactly a calm start to the new working week either, with gusty winds continuing well into Monday for some; The GFS 12z does similar in continuing some noticeable wind gusts well into Monday across some parts of the UK; I won’t post every chart for every timeframe but the Arpege 12z run is essentially similar to the above. Mean wind speeds peaking at circa 30 - 40mph for many at some point; with gusts widely in excess of 50 - 60mph at some point for many;

Come’on Rovers. Set yourself up for a fourth round match against ‘Pool!

Latest SAT image still shows a lot of cloud cover over Dorset & Hampshire, associated with that channel front earlier; Its all slowly sinking away SE so once you’re under the clearer skies, temperature should start plummeting.

-0.2c here now. Doubt it’ll get above freezing again until lunchtime tomorrow at the earliest.

I reckon Bald Eagle has climbed the tallest structure in Bristol, with a long range pair of Binoculars in the hope they can locate a stray snowflake blowing in the wind 50 miles away!

Looks like Bedminster.

Forecast MAX temperature by 06:00am tomorrow morning; Assuming this cloud cover clears as forecast through this afternoon, then many of us could have a decent/harsh frost tonight, which will make the landscape at least look somewhat wintery come tomorrow morning. Going to be a cold one.

Ahh well, it looks like for those that want snow, you’ll have to join the mid Feb Scandi high chase that’s starting up in the MOD thread. Another cold couple of days coming up (probably the coldest of the week) before things turn milder and stormier for the weekend. The MetO have a very early wind advisory out for Sunday already; UK weather warnings - Met Office WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Back to normal service soon. Make the most of the next couple of days if you have outdoor envisions.

Didn’t you see a couple of flakes last Monday?

That UKV chart that Mapantz posted above does show a blob of snow over you.

I would still go with this. Not much has changed really.

I know you said Dartmouth, just highlighting that nearby Dartmoor was at a higher risk of snow, just in case you were tempted to head up there. Otherwise, whilst cold, should at least see plenty of sunshine after the front & associated cloud has passed through early Wednesday.

Dartmoor quite possibly could. Doubt it’ll be much though, if at all.

Haven’t really looked at it. Just enjoying the dry, cold weather before normal service resumes at the weekend. If it’s still there in 72 hours then I may take notice, especially as I’m travelling down to Devon on Saturday.

Are you joining him on chase number 3?

I think either or both Wednesday night & Thursday night have the potential to record quite low minima locally at least. Tonight there is likely to be quite a bit of cloud around and the colder upper air has only just reached our region so probably just below freezing for many. Tomorrow night will be plagued with cloud cover for most of us as the well documented front traverses somewhere around/through the channel. Wednesday night & Thursday night have the potential to be much clearer and colder.

Latest GFS 12z Det actually brings PPN quite modestly inland for parts of Devon & Dorset tomorrow night; Suspect it would be rain on the coasts and snow just a mile or two inland. Moors of Devon would do quite well here, @festivalking. However, it is isolated currently and an outside chance, but goes to show what a few miles difference can do even when it’s only a matter of hours away.