Kentish Snowman in Yorks
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Posts posted by Kentish Snowman in Yorks
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4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:
Day 8
Beasterly commeth
Likely to be the coldest operational I have ever seen, this is pretty much the holy grail run.
Choo Choo!
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8 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
Not sure where the disappointment is coming from?
Heavy snow hasnt ever been forecasy for today guys just light scattered showers
If anything the showers look more widespread than expected and beefier.
If your looking at 850s and thats it maybe thats whats causing confusion...
Its the heights at hpa that arent low enough.
Lower the dam larger the cloudtops bigger the showera etc
Look at the difference in the blue colours over the uk
We can see through today and tomorrow this gets darker which means more and more instability with less capping in the atmosphere
I hope this helps people understand the lack of heavy snowfall
Calm. We will get hit hard tomorrow. Atm more so southyorkshire but north and west will still have generous amounts
Look at the dark blue colours of the heights on the last chart.
So a combination of both low heights and low 850s create a snow machine over the north sea
Yes I wasn't quite sure where the concern was coming from as it has only ever been tonight onwards when the real fun starts with anything before being a bonus?
Thoughts on thundersnow tomorrow Scott In view of your post? I suspect those under the streamer and closest to the coast have the best chance?
Experienced it a couple of times before but would love to again (greedy I know!)
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Met Office App now showing 60 consecutive hours of snow or snow showers from midnight tonight until midday Wednesday. Please be right!
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3 minutes ago, Liam Taylor said:
Is that good or bad for Doncaster
Not sure about today but I would say Doncaster is very well placed for tomorrow's streamer (assuming it materialises)
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Anyone a bit cleverer than me know what the situation is tomorrow regarding instability etc? I have seen talk of convergence zones and I wondered what the chances are of sferics etc? Or is it not going to be that type of setup?
That fax chart for tomorrow certainly looks promising for South and West Yorkshire etc ?
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Is it me or do the showers coming in from the North Sea appear to be intensifying and dying out much less as they push inland now? I don't know whether that is me being hopeful or not?!
The odd small flakes still blowing about in the wind here....
I should also say I still have the tiniest most forlorn looking patch of snow in the garden from the kids snowman earlier in the week so anything that falls is just topping me up really! ?
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4 minutes ago, bazookabob said:
Slow thaw now the snow has stopped. Need the sub-zero dew points to arrive ASAP to stop my covering going away! Anyone know when they are due to arrive (outside of the heavy precip?)
The colder air and lower dew points are not expected to filter in until the early hours I believe. 6am onwards looks to be when the -10 850s arrive ❄
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3.2c here and the odd snowflake in the rain ❄
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Just now, rotherhamsnowman said:
Calm down folks, the cold isn't due to arrive here properly until tonight, rain will turn to snow later on. Keep the faith guys!!
Yes I never expected to see any wintriness at my elevation until 6pm or 7pm this evening. I hope not too as I have things to do before (snow) lockdown begins!
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I moved up in the Summer of 2010 and within 6 months I had seen 40cms of snow and regular -10c temperatures! I thought that was how every winters were in Yorkshire!
Still I have done well since and have high hopes for this spell. Fingers crossed guys! ❄❄❄
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That model thread is so depressing you would think we weren't staring down the barrel of a bitterly cold week with snow for many!
So many whingers its dry here its all breaking down blah blah blah even from posters in areas which I think will do extremely well from this setup!
If you're not happy with 4/5 ice days and the potential for some snow and your based in the UK you may as well give up as you will never be happy!
Just going to stick with this thread I think. Proper weather talk in straightforward language from proper Yorkshire folk!
Anyway enough of that T-24 and counting for the start of the fun and games! ❄?
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Just now, LeeSnowFan said:
nearly chocked on my dinner lol in a good way , I'm 125asl but was only expecting 10-15cm ..... double would be nice
Yeah 10-15cms would do but I think we can beat that! South Yorkshire seem to do well from this setup but it would be great if the whole region gets a tonking!
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A little over 48 hours to go until the fun and games start!
I'm plumping for somewhere in our region below 200m getting 30-40cms before this spell is over and I would not be surprised to see somewhere on high ground getting 60cms plus......
Sounds outrageous but feasible given the set up I reckon ❄❄❄
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3 hours ago, Just Before Dawn said:
Can't really fault the overnight output or ECM this morning - all staying pretty rock solid so far when it comes to the weekend and next week.
Particularly interested in Sunday evening - this has been consistent for three days worth of runs now. I've been in three meteorologically defined blizzards in my life - one walking up Glen Clova in 1991, one in South Dakota in 1998 and the third driving, then stopping the side of the road for four hours between Varangerbotn in Norway and Ivalo in Finland in 2017. Sunday night *could* be number 4. Further inland - S Yorks and bits of W Yorks, North Notts, who will already have had snow on the Saturday could see some pretty impressive drifting as those showers penetrate well inland. The 2010 event, great though it was, never had winds gusting to 40mph, at least not down here.
1 hour ago, LeeSnowFan said:from mad thread
The snow computer flags up the greatest risk of snowfall Sunday going into Monday being over Southern Northern England ( maybe from North Sea trough alignment focused in that location). Elsewhere snow convective cells widely north of The Wash and up to Scotland on the eastern side. Tuesday flags up some snow potential for Southern England on Tuesday but as yet does not provide a accuracy percentage rate. The team think the deepest cold air will arrive early on Tuesday.
Just flagging up these two posts as Sunday evening and overnight does look like it has the potential to give our region the first big "dump" of this spell.
Could really be some impressive snow totals by the end of next week to rival the 2010 spell? ❄
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Two points regarding the posters commenting on the breakdown shown at the end of the ECM run.
1) Between Sunday and Wednesday we are almost certainly looking at a stonking Easterly with bitter winds and more than likely copious amounts of snow in many areas so many of us wouldn't complain about a bit of milder weather after a spell like that?
2) Anybody hoping for that milder weather towards the end of next week is likely to be disappointed! It is often the case that model runs underestimate the strength of the colder air once in place and it is often harder to shift than modelled. All the while the Met Office is calling for fronts from the West struggling to make headway across the UK I would treat any swift breakdown shown on the models with caution. Some breakdowns get very messy (snowy) and then the milder air just admits defeat and dives South.
All in all much to be positive (excited) about if your a coldie so let's strap ourselves in and enjoy the ride!
❄?❄?❄?
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1.2c here this morning. Really surprised how cold it is still here with plenty of snow cover.
I am sure we were forecast 5c by this morning only yesterday on the met office app? Signs of the cold air hanging on longer than expected?
Models look great this morning for cold and snow for our region from Sunday onwards with no real end in sight ❄❄
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1 minute ago, That ECM said:
Go on, have a little look.
-14 air into Kent for my Garden of England brethren. Nice!
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1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:
So that 5 out of 6 models bringing cold/snow. But hey some of us just to want concentrate on the one that doesn't because that must be right eh.
TBF that is normally what happens in the UK! The good thing is the odd one out is the GFS and not the ECM or what would be most worrying the UKMO!
Fingers crossed the GFS 0z suite is all a distant memory come 11am!
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So its GFS vs the rest this morning. UKMO looks great and if anything the ECM is doubling down on our Easterly prospects this morning. The 144 chart looks fantastic! ❄
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This band of precipitation seems to be moving at quite a rate. Is it supposed to stall or pivot across Yorkshire? I can't see 6 hours falling snow otherwise?
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1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:The ECMWF is a bit of wet sloppy let down. This is all slipping away I feel.
1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:ECM says
Who wants some snow ❄❄❄
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All this talk of snow on Tuesday and next weekend but its actually snowing here right now. The lightest snow ever but snow nonetheless!
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2 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:
This looks to be a middle ground between 6z Arpege and the 0z ECM. As you say, still time for an adjustment South to bring those of us in S. Yorks into the game.
Fingers crossed for South Yorkshire
As it stands the higher parts of Leeds and Bradford could be buried! ?
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Weather warning out for Thursday into Friday now which includes some parts of our region (not over my head unfortunately but time for change!)
Several centimetres on low ground and 15-30cms over higher ground!
Issued: 11:00 (UTC) on Tue 26 Jan 2021
A band of snowfall will likely push northeast into this region during the early hours of Thursday and become slow-moving. Snow may fall to lower elevations for a time with some locations seeing several cm by morning, however above 200 m elevation significant and prolonged snowfall is possible throughout Thursday, with the potential for 15-30cm to accumulate which may lead to transport disruption. Overnight into Friday snowfall will turn lighter and more patchy, and likely become restricted to elevations above 300-400 M, but may see a further 5-10 cm.
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Yorkshire and E England regional discussion
in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion
Posted
Cheers for that.
Interesting you talk about longevity. Its easy to see how if one area is under a streamer for any length of time those totals could really rack up.
I still think somebody somewhere on low ground in our region will hit the jackpot and receive 30cms - 40cms by the end of Wednesday. Not beyond the realms of possibility in my opinion.