Dave Kightley

So James Madden must be thinking either an 1987 or 1962/1963 or he has completely missed the plot that 1962/1963 were one of the coldest winters on record

Also 25 years is 1987 which is the year of the great Easterly spell... Just seemed odd why 100 years, when so much great cold happened afterwards...

Lots of snow potential in FI is well. Lows trying to break through is always a good thing for frontal snowfall across the south as long we stay on the right side of it of course.

Great Charts this morning! Look's all go from next weekend but wouldn't be surprised on a late upgrade with the Northerly Wednesday either

The big freeze will last until mid-December???? EVEN if you divide that by 2 is weeks away or so? Round about where the models go up to??? I might be wrong but anyhow

I have noticed a trend with the express with it's 100 years talk... 100 winds, 100 years cold spell -15 temperatures... If you divide it all by 50% you get 50 mile per hour winds which is likely. 50 year temperature =1962/1963 and -7.5 up north tuesday night maybe??????

Don't expect the end of the flooding after this weekend.. Standing water will freeze next week and on top of that 1 foot of snow during December.. Not looking good

Everyone will have to buy ice skates not sledges this time next week lol

Around 200h WE see a low moving up from the south... Interesting not on this run but if it did happen then i'm sure it would be modeled much further south due to the block so lots of snow for the south! Seen this happen a few times when the models underestimate the blocking

Nice to see the -5 uppers over our part of the world near fl... Will make a great restpite after all this rain this week... More rain later this week too... Ice Skating next week then hahaha

Christ! Thankfully the rains finally cleared

Extremely heavy too. It helped with the time of day also. What makes me think that with -4 uppers overnight would produce at least marginal snow?

Looks like we are in for a wild night Warnings - Met Office.htm

With the negativity within in the Model discussion around uppers.. I thought id share a clip from 1962. A program from BBC four a while back i think? I wasn't born to remember the Shadows btw

Is the -5 upper profile really that important for snow.. I swear we had had snow the other week under -1/-2 although it had to quite heavy. The cold-ish uppers do flirt with Scotland for a while

Did someone say charts like this are the start of a C.W?

mmm this maybe why???? ... Were on the 18z too

lol yh! looks like pressure rises in USA and shifts the P.V in the most simple explanation i could think of. What i get out of this run is maybe the growing trend for pressure to be higher closer to the UK at first.. Maybe an expert can explain it better lol

The GFS run was ok until it hit fl...... I'm happy with whats up to 144h however the p.v just grows again and so pressure stays high around the UK. Looked like a nice split up to that point

Sounds like a good week or so of below average temps at least

SATURDAY, 17 NOVEMBER 2012 <a href="http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/potential-for-some-of-coldest-and.html" style="color: rgb(170, 221, 153); text-decoration: initial; display: block; font-weight: bold;">Potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES... There is also the potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES to be recorded in the December to January period of the upcoming winter. The January period is also slightly more favorable to experience the worst of the winter conditions in terms of snowfall and temperatures. Snippet from snow risk dates and temperature forecast available (Produced and made available on 9th November 2012) @http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

I have my faith in this happening this Winter

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121115/18/312/h850t850eu.png The uppers are getting cold to... Looking east in fI

A link on youtube to a video taken from just outside Wincanton on the 4th November