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Dave Kightley

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Everything posted by Dave Kightley

  1. Dave Kightley
    Alittle bit further west on the ecmwf with the warm sector then i will get excited
  2. Dave Kightley
    nocaps is that good its getting replaced. Trend setter v the ukmo be like Man utd losing to sprunehorpe.
  3. Dave Kightley
    you would think it would drop hitting that block to our north... strange why it goes e
  4. Dave Kightley
    I think if anyone could make a forecast for next week it will most proberly be wrong by 6pm tonight
  5. Dave Kightley
    Higher height's over Greenland on the ECM and we have a deal. I guess this is what the GFS ens picked up on by bring Atlantic back in. Conflicting signals with milder runs it must be what the ECM is showing? Undercut?
  6. Dave Kightley
    GFS 00z ens Come out around 6 right?
  7. Dave Kightley
    So many ideas flying around the models around the 120h-180h period. No idea what will happen. The prospects for Wintry weather between Saturday and Tuesday look good esp. Come on bring me a dumping!
  8. Dave Kightley
    Just like when the US models are the first when they sniff Zonal! default mode.. Just go through the years of GFS love for it.. ECM isn't handling it right. I hope not!
  9. Dave Kightley
    Wouldn't it make sense that the GFS/ GEM would have a better handle of the jet coming out of the USA and around South of Greenland??? Considering there US models? The Signal is so strong on the models with SSW to.. Just doesn't add up.
  10. Dave Kightley
    I think it's always been an outsider esp since yesterday morning when that Low popped up. As I've said the pattern is generally to far east to produce (I think) but there is a great signal for later next week. The UKMO 144h holds a lot of interest going forward.Temps next week are Cold nonetheless. If we can keep the pattern further west the better
  11. Dave Kightley
    Would you think if the UKMO went out further it turn out the same?
  12. Dave Kightley
    Could do with the pattern further west as usual though.
  13. Dave Kightley
    Rather chilly on the GFS and UKMO next week with marginal Snow events possible. Not at all bad?
  14. Dave Kightley
  15. Dave Kightley
    UKMO is alot better then the GFS at 144. Better Height rise towards Greenland
  16. Dave Kightley
    I can see what it's trying to do but all to far east if you ask me. The synoptic's are not far off what Ian wrote earlier. Further west would be better. Really annoying the models can be.
  17. Dave Kightley
    Upto 180h no where near as good. Poor run if you ask me
  18. Dave Kightley
    Doesn't the ECM have a low cracking into the top of our weak Block! The Jet running our the top of our ridge in the atlantic? Causing problems? Still not sure if the Models still know what to do with the P.V unless are just being less progressive??? No idea
  19. Dave Kightley
    I guess that's the problem with Weak heights to our north! It won't last long. We will see Met office model of some kind. :S
  20. Dave Kightley
    I just remember when ECM, GFS were more interested in an E'ly when Ian posted about MOGREPS s/s.w signal instead.
  21. Dave Kightley
    Oh dear. Reminds me of December all over again! MOGREPS if i remember picked up on the signal before the others..Hopefully GFS is close to the mark..
  22. Dave Kightley
    18z Were a bit better. Not surprising considering all the goings on in the medium term and also that Low in the west must of been the factor of the later GFS output.The GFS has only picked up on this Low i think so i'm not sure the ens know what to do with it or if they do at all. More runs needed
  23. Dave Kightley
    That low in the West could get interesting for some parts if it stays on the model output. Something to watch?
  24. Dave Kightley
    A stunner is. worrying over nothing haha
  25. Dave Kightley
    Dunno what to think of the run so far upto around 180h that low running down the west of the uk seems to having an affect on any Greenland high. See what happens
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