Fingers
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Posts posted by Fingers
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Loving the ukmo at t144!!
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Looks that way. High over Iceland and 2nd coldpool advancing westwards at t180. Lets see what the gfs can do!
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Yep, colder air in quicker on this run, high slightly further north.
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Sunspots on the decline again and will soon decay away and leave our view on the solar disc. Let’s hope for a quiet period and a period of spotless days. I was expecting more heights to our north and a bleeding/easing out of the purples over Greenland 10 days after the wind reversal but keeping the faith!
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Better heights across the pole at t120 but that vortex over Greenland looks too strong.
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Improvements again to our north/northeast at 150. Could we be heading in the right direction?!
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Model watching is tough going at the mo, especially since we haven’t seen lying snow on the south coast for 5 years!
I still believe that we could be on to something special. The models haven’t had a lot of SSW occurrences to be getting these 5-15 day forecasts right and with a record -40m/s reversal (not predicted until the 15th) and a favourable mjo i’m not sure we’ll get a decent handle on this until midweek..... at the earliest. Yes we can look for trends but I believe it’s time to keep the faith!
Half term this week, may travel north Tuesday so my 5 year old can experience snow for the first time. ?
Clem
Snow starved southerner!
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Cold air definitely getting further west quicker on this run, -10 encroaching in to Wales T84 rather than London.
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Heights higher over Greenland pushing the low on a more southerly trajectory again. Correction south again???
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Looks like the low is going to head further to the southwest and dive towards Biscay
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@ 60h, 18z just that little bit sharper with heights slightly higher towards Iceland.
Let's keep it going!
Clem
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@120 ecm still going up, but everything looks a tad further east. Can we get the wrap around and still pull in the easterly?!?!
Large variations at 48 hours, FI is 72 hours!
clem
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Complete change this run, everything collapsing away southeast and flattening with no height rises anywhere. No idea where we are heading!
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Is that a much better re-load going up at 204Hr?
Kerching!!! Yes it is, great run!
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Evening all,
Just reviewed the charts for the winter of 62/63..... I'm not entirely sure if I could have controlled myself during that!
It looks so easy. Cold high pressure wandering around with frost and fog at the start of december, brief milder spell as the high drifts southwards and then heaven as the Azores high builds in across to Scandinavia before retrogressing slowly north west in to Greenland. Purples and blues frequently maintained to the north, enso neutral on La Niña side, low sunspots, cold in Asia.
I'm hoping we'll see some very cold charts for the last week of December arriving in the extended range in around the 10th and you never know, this could be a VERY special Christmas!
Never give up, never surrender!
Clem
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Can't post charts on phone. Looks like height rises going in to Greenland @ 144 hours on the the Ecm. Will our high retrogress and put us in a northerly! Looking forward to the next few frames!
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A question to ask. I know it's only one run but the jet stream charts below show the stronger reds over us from t120 to t144 and increasing further so we are on the wrong side of the jet and the boundary between the cold and warm. Surely we need the jet dig a lot further down towards Africa to be in the true grip of cold weather?
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-8 uppers slide across the country on the Ecm around t144 then potential for a cold high to set up over the country, at least it would be dry. Maybe cold surface temperatures under that high. Still plenty of time for upgrades!
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PV looks a bit more organised @174 with slightly lower heights over the pole. Less yellow too heading to the left side of the tip of Greenland on this run.
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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:
Just been out for a walk - birds are really lively and numerous bees on plants!...have to say this is nothing short of ridiculous. I wonder if we (in the south east) can get through the whole month without a frost?
We had a frost on the 9th December around Winchester, it got down to a mind blowing -0.5'c! Other than that no sub +5'c overnight temperatures.
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Still hoping to buried for the next 2 months! There's a link between NAO in July being repeated through the winter. It was highly negative, think it was 2nd or 3rd most negative recorded, so always hope!! Pesky Nino!
Clem
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With the temp anomalies currently at 4.3'c above average and forecast to rise further over the coming period, we are going to require some exceptional cold in the remaining 2 months for this winter period DJF to come out anything other than significantly warmer than average. We'll need to be 2-2.5'c cooler than average in Jan and Feb, which is exceptional in itself, to get back to just average for the tri-monthly period!!
I'm not writing off winter as plenty to play for in Jan and Feb but need this pattern flip. Fingers crossed the current potential signs come to fruition and the PV weakens accordingly.
Clem
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We may only be 6 days in but the running CET is 10.1'c, 4.9'c above average so almost double the long term average with no real cold forecast down south in the reliable time frame. The start of winter is certainly not normal but hope to get SSW showing in the <240 hour timeframe and get that currently +2 NAO tanking negative.
We don't get much sustained cold here in the uk but frosts would be a good start!
Not sure 275mm of rain in one day is that normal either!
Clem
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24 minutes ago, Catacol said:
Ha - I love your optimism! I'll share it until the day I die.... but right now this winter is awful, on the back of an awful one for the south last year. If we dont get the substantial wave 1 shunt to the vortex in the 3 - 6 week time bracket then this winter will end up a disaster throughout. I'm trying not to have a bad feeling overall, but with constant wind and rain it is difficult. And it is so damned warm too. Where are my winter heating bills? I miss them... :-(
Optimism is all you have on the south coast! Been starved of snow for years now, even March 2013 was just very cold with no action.
At least you're saving money on the heating bills. You can put it towards a snow machine purchase, the bad news you'll have to pick one of the three days we have a frost this winter to use it and be up very early!
Clem
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Poor from the Gfs, the high drifting too far east at t186. No cold uppers whatsoever.