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Fingers

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    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, ReindeerMarmalade said:

    I'm starting to think my 5yo daughter's generation will grow up to become adults who hark back to their childhood winters with "remember when temperatures got as low as the teens and you could even have days with just drizzle?! Very festive. Sometimes we gathered around the family iPad to Google photos of snow."

     

    The stuff of nightmares.

    Don't worry, Gleissberg minimum, cold AMO, east based La Niña's, -QBO, -PDO, mini Ice ages, volcanic eruptions.. .. and some of that next year! 

    There's always stuff to dream about, the next generation may come out better than us! 

    Clem

    • Like 1

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Fingers

    Looking at the 3 month means for the NAO attached, it appears that once locked in to a strong positive or negative NAO pattern of around +2/-2 (as we are currently in) they can be dominant for quite a period of time..... Sadly! 

    It's only a mean but this leans towards a much more mobile pattern with limited chance of sustained cold likely with limited blocking over Greenland and the pole. 

    Need that current last red spike to be as thin as possible and not fat bottomed! Looking at previous cycles, there's not too many periods of short lived 2+ NAO rapidly leading to a super negative NAO. 78/79 looks like our closest comparison. 

    Interesting to also see the set up around the 1997 Nino with a negative NAO but not a cold winter and what we'd give for a 2010 set up!

    Clem

    image.png

    HO-PI Winter Index 2015/16

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Solar sunpots have been on the rise recently and today are up to 145 from an average around 60 for the last 2 months. We are running very close to solar cycle 12 and that had one last hoorah before entering solar minimum. Could this peak be just at the wrong time as we enter our winter??!! Hope not!

    HO-PI Winter Index 2015/16

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    60% cold is my prediction with the cooler Atlantic, more southerly jet and reducing sunspot activity leading us to be -0.5'c to -1'c below average.

    Fear the south may just get cold and wet, especially early winter, whilst the north have the better of it with a more northerly influences. Potentially a colder end to the winter with the Nino effect at least giving us something to get excited about down south.

    Would be great if this is the first of a cluster of colder than average winters if we get La Niña conditions following this winter, the Atlantic entering it's cooler phase, solar minimum (following the path of cycle 12) and a cooler North Pacific, you never know we may see The Beast making a reappearance and be able to wax up those sledges!!!

    • Like 4

    Early winter hopes and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Fingers

    I would not count on sunspot activity working in our favour. Current: attachicon.gifmdi_sunspots.jpg

    A recent headline: http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/9831/20141024/nasa-notices-largest-sunspot-decades.htm

    Last year's washout will not happen this year, well at least not for the same reasons, but there are very few positive signals from the LR models, so its a case of fingers crossed.

    Agree. Certainly has been an upward tick at the mo. Need it quieten like it did 13/14.

    post-12839-0-50260200-1414328059_thumb.j

    Early winter hopes and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    After watching Gavs 2nd winter model update it's only the Jamstec that has anything remotely wintry for us and the the whole of mainland Europe. With the OPI looking at being between -2.0/-2.5 this, without exception from the sample data we have, will deliver some colder than average months to Europe even if we are unlucky and miss out with the bulk of the cold plunging SW through Europe and in to France. As Steve said with the potential for one super AO and at least 2 junior AO's, a strong negative QBO, a developing although weak El Niño, fairly low sunspot activity and great advance of snow build up through Siberia I am quietly optimistic we will see something very good through the winter period although maybe towards the mid/latter end.

    Clem

    OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Fingers

    After watching Gavs 2nd winter model update it's only the Jamstec that has anything remotely wintry for us and the the whole of mainland Europe. With the OPI looking at being between -2.0/-2.5 this, without exception from the sample data we have, will deliver some colder than average months to Europe even if we are unlucky and miss out with the bulk of the cold plunging SW through Europe and in to France. As Steve said with the potential for one super AO and at least 2 junior AO's, a strong negative QBO, a developing although weak El Niño, fairly low sunspot activity and great advance of snow build up through Siberia I am quietly optimistic we will see something very good through the winter period although maybe towards the mid/latter end.

    Clem

    • Like 1

    OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    We shouldn't forget that we only have solid data for half of the month plus a semi reliable forecast for the next week and uncertain for the last three days which drive the current OPI number.

    From my perspective, a decently negative OPI will not carry much weight if we end the month with a raging p/v. That would seem unlikely but is certainly not discountable.

    I still remain confused as to whether the daily opi number trends towards the final figure on the daily graph or whether it has to be derived once all the 31 days numbers are available?

    Slightly controversial. That's the problem, we haven't got solid data due to the forecast element of the opi figure as it reads. Ideally you need a published daily month to date rolling figure (the trend) + a 10 day forecast figure. From this mornings 00z we could, emphasise could, have a positive opi for the month so far with the forecast 10 day period bringing it back to a negative -0.76 figure. Very unlikely but until we get very close to month end we can only go by our observations and hope the vortex remains subdued and delivers -1.5 as the trend appears to be negative.

    OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Fingers

    Update of -0.76 from the 00z. 5 days time until we can see the month end prediction with, hopefully, less swings and fluctuations through the final 10 days as actual data overrides forecasts. Let's hope for the usual drop by the 18z!

    One quick question. We obviously don't take the data from the 18z pub run with the daily figure polling from 12z and the figure (generally, but not always) does trend lower through the day. Am I right in assuming that the 12z is considered the most accurate GFS run as the 00z is too progressive etc?

    Clem

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