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Nick123

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    Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, NickR said:

    I can't see this getting going for us today. The models always had more convincing convection further south for this period and that is what has happened/is happening.

    Yee of little faith. The radar is slowly getting better for us. I expect the showers to get heavier and more widespread later this pm.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    In the end when we reach Wednesday then the coldest air is over us, so the quicker the the progress of retrograding core heights to Greenland and dropping low heights into Scandinavia the better in keeping that low near the Azores further south as it moves into Europe.

    GFS/UKMO/GEM at day 5

    gfs-0-120.png?12   UW120-21.GIF?24-17   gem-0-120.png?12

    Once low heights move towards the NE, this will reinvigorate the Euro trough and parent low to our south will tend to move on a more easterly vector rather than towards the UK to bring milder air. We don't want the heights moving too far west of course as this is a classic west based -NAO which will allow pressure to rise over parts of Europe, a cold north easterly could become a very wet south westerly if the jet gets too far north.

    I know snow is our main excitement but has anyone noticed the winds?? 

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

    not at all!......It's nice to have a chat with someone on here about something topical without it getting heated :)......( and yes, I'm excited for this coming week, it can't come soon enough!!)

    Yeah it's nice. I have been a long time lurker on this forum and recently I have started to comment a bit more. I am still learning so really don't want to offend anyone!

    • Like 5

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

    You're right......IMHO talk of a breakdown is premature, but it's still valid to discuss if a model shows it...................just for info for members, for the here and now, there is the 'Short term model output thread' which is criminally underused, pop in and help Knocker and a couple others man the fort! 

     

    Thank you. I hope i didn't come across with any malice. I am just so excited and talking about a breakdown seems pointless with the amazing potential

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

    This is the model output discussion thread, and if any model output shows a breakdown, snowmageddon, spanish plumes, the day after tomorrow or hurricances whether it's T0 or T384 then this is the valid place to discuss it surely?.....IMHO if anyone's mind is boggled then it's best to go to another  thread so one doesn't have to see any 'breakdown' talk :)

    I get your point but surely talking about a breakdown when the cold spell hasn't even started is like talking about what the lottery numbers will be next Saturday. Why can't we just talk about the here and now. This is an amazing spell of weather coming up, especially for our tiny island it's so rare to get such amazing synoptics. By the time it's here people will be so busy worrying about a breakdown they won't actually enjoy it.

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, IDO said:

    ...and let's not forget the GEM who also has a similar low spoiler next week and the GEM brings in a breakdown:

    gem-1-240.thumb.png.2e4fb2484b12142b801d7447b4b664c1.png

    My opinion is that the low moving north will drag a milder flow in the UK quadrant and could scupper chances of cold further down the line. I suspect if we are to get a long-term significant cold spell we need ECM to verify. 

    Even so there would be mass snow potential (mass disruption) especially for those up north. Not bad even if it's just for one day. People are never happy even tho we would have sold our grandmother for a cold spell like this in November.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Right. I am taking a break from here. If for nothing else other than my sanity. (Watch the models now flip to snowmageddon) I love this forum and I am in awe of some of the people in here with their vast knowledge of the weather and some of the posts this season have just been amazing. Thanks for the ride, everyone! See you all soon

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    PM incursion lasted about 12 hours lol.

    Lets hope for a nice EC, although as mucka posted above, its been way to optimistic with the blocking signal-

    still it was nice to have a bit of interest for a few days- the wife will be glad its gone pete tong tho - :D

    At least I can get back on with my life now. This is the problem with model watching. It takes up a good part of your life and then you realise it's all been for nothing!! One of these days we will get lucky.... I hope!!!

    • Like 4
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