blizzard81

120 hr fax chart is great, no sign of azores high.

The biggest trend today has been the introduction of a possible Scandi High at the end of the coming week. ECM has been toying with this over the last couple of days and I believe the GFS is now entertaining the idea of this. I believe the possibilty of a Scandi High is coming about as a result of some very cold uppers in Scandinavia over the next few days and the models will not get to grips with this until much nearer the time. Put it this way, I would not be suprised to see the 00z models showing a rebust Scandi High by the end of this coming week thus advecting some very cold air our way. This also ties in with Chio's posts with regards to Cohen re Strat warming.

The ECM op is a car crash. One thing I have noticed over the years which seems to corelate with mild weather over the UK is a stubborn high pressure system over north east Canada. This seems to do us no favours at all and is omnipresent throughout the ECM op. I have got a niggling feeling that this is going to be one of those oh so nearly winters where although the patterns look positive for cold, things just do not fall into place at the right time. BFTP mentioned this a few weeks ago. I think he mentioned a previous winter (2002 ?) which was one such example.

Well with a quote like that, could you please not post for another few weeks, lol Only yokin!! The only thing giving me hope at the moment is we still have time for the models to revert back to cold in time for Xmas. However, only another 24 - 48 hours at most.

That explains my query earlier - I thought the analysis you posted earlier was based on the 00z suite.

Yes, sometimes you get the feeling that the models are toying with us and leading us on a constant merry go round!!

Yes Nick, the difference between the ECM operational and control of this morning when compared to yesterdays ECM runs is that yesterday they were keen to send the energy south east into Europe but today they are having none of it and the ECM has clearly moved towards GFS. We are also 24 hours nearer to the eventual outcome so we are running out of time for the ECM to revert back to what it was showing yesterday.

Absolutely. I'm not Meto bashing here but I again get that recurring feeling of the Meto always being 24 hours behind everyone else - behind most people on this forum anyway! If this was yesterday morning, I would understand Meto's analysis (kindly given to us by Fergie which is much appreciated) However, things have really taken a turn for the worse for coldies with the overnight operationals - and now backed up by the 6z.

It may just be the BOM but no one can deny it's consistency these last few days. The question is - consistently correct or consistently wrong?? I don't think we have long to wait for the answer now. I am as confused as the models right now but there is something in the back of my mind that tells me the BOM performed well in the run up to the Nov/Dec 2010 cold spell or was it the 2009/2010 winter or indeed both? It would be great to get an update from GP right now so he can give us his thoughts on which models he thinks are in tune with his thoughts for the next ten days.

The thing I like most about that chart is the total lack of an azores high. Always a good sign to me in terms of cold further down the line.

Hi Stewart, am I correct in saying the 12z ECM operational delivered in terms of split flow in the Atlantic at the back end of it,s run? Or am I reading it wrong?

Is that cross polar ridging I see on the ECM 240 chart? - from the pacific right through to Scandi!

Thank you Ian, much appreciated.

Yes, I tend to take the 12z and 00z far more seriously but like you say, lets hope the 18z is the start of trend by the GFS - For once!!

Are you saying that this missing data is not all that crucial?

CFS 3 and 4 weekly ensembles back up GP's thoughts with regards to blocking signal over southern Greenland/Iceland. This has had a few wobbles over the last couple of days but it has now reverted to what it was consistantly showing a week or so ago. Good news indeed. Sorry, didn't mean this to be a response to Davehsug - hit the wrong quote icon!!

Not a case of not handling the topsy turvy nature of UK winters. Just stating a fact that the ECM 12z ensembles are a big dissapointment for cold fans this evening. If we are to see a trend, the best indicator is the ECM ensemble suite and certainly not the 18z.

Looks like a much sweeter version of the ECM 12z operational run - That cross polar ridging is eerily similar to the ECM 240 chart. Just wish this was the GFS 12z and not the much derided pub run.

Shame it's the pub run and couple this with the ECM seemingly jumping ship for now - just viewed the ECM 12z ensembles.

I have followed these probabilty maps for the last few years and I have always been able to draw a conclusion from them. That is untill this years November update. It screams fudge to me, especially with the precipitation maps. How can you have splodges of blue interspersed in close proximity with deep yellows!! My belief is that the Meto have blinked first. Blinked before the ECM seasonal forecast. These two forecasts were at total odds with each other untill this latest Nov update from the Meto. It suggests to me that there are far more conflicting signals this winter than usual and maybe even the supercomputers are having a headache with it all.

Just looked through that and my word, what an absolutely stonking Christmas that would be - magical.

Well, the met probability charts still show a slightly below average winter temperature wise as the most likely outcome as opposed to average or above. The fact that the pressure ensembles do not marry up to the likely temperature outcomes is, quite frankly, unnacceptable as far as I am concerned. There should be a clear correlation between the two. The fact that they do not simply fudges the seasonal forecast and totally detracts any sense of clarity for any lay person reading the seasonal forecast.

It's a shame that the ECM doesn't go any further than 240 as I believe energy would undercut the high to our east. Also, just look at that cross polar ridging from the pacific right through to Svalbard on the 240 chart - pretty impressive.

Totally agree Nick. As ever, everything seems to be on a knifedge. In subsequent runs, we need to see the block to the east drift west a little quicker and the troughs from the west dig south quicker. It would be great to see this trend but the models do not like to make things easy for us!! I will go 9 Steve

All eyes now on the ECM 12z ensembles. We will be able to see how much support there is for the operational.