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blizzard81

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Posts posted by blizzard81

    E.N.S.O. Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    I suppose (though I say it through grated winter teeth!!) there is more to winter weather watching than snow hunting. Were we to get a super Nina then watching what unfolds in another near unique climate scenario should be interest enough to keep us happy...even if the result was wall to wall rain, or air drawn from Africa as with @CreweCold and his Glosea musings on the other thread. I'm not sure that "normal" means a huge amount anymore in any case. Whether it is a super Nino (15/16) or an unbelievable vortex shatter (17/18) or an index breaking IOD (19/20) we are seeing record books shredded consistently now. Arctic ice limits may break low all time records this month. Heat has hit summer records in the last couple of years. An extreme Nina would be in keeping with a global climate in a see saw state - and who knows: perhaps it will bring an equally record breaking winter season with it........and if that means we have to endure warm, wet misery again and wait another year for the cold record breaker then so be it.

    Then again - a record Nina might bring record winter cold to Europe. The wild card in an extreme context is always in play.........

    I suppose we could say there is an element of 'the big unknown' with regards to the modern day climate. 

    E.N.S.O. Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    In a word - no. There are none in the modern record. Strong Ninas include the horror seasons of 88/89 and 98/99. However the character of each event is likely to be different, and the Met O forecast concentrates the anomaly in 3.4 and to a lesser extent 3 - so very much another central Nina in the offing. 2010/11 or 2016/17 recently.

    Were it to become a "super" event and crash through and beyond the -2 boundary then we are probably in uncharted waters (no pun intended) - and together with very low ice over the arctic who knows how things may pan out. I'm seeing climate extreme everywhere I look now, and past trends and impacts are possibly becoming less and less relevant. 

    As ever - we shall see soon enough. eQBO and weak/moderate Nina replaced by wQBO and strong Nina wasnt quite what my personal winter script was looking for, however!

    Thank you. I think we need to keep hoping the nina event isn't too strong but I notice your interesting point about a central based one as well as the arctic ice loss. Lots to chew over and digest which is all part of the fun of course. 

    E.N.S.O. Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    image.thumb.png.4a6708f4fe99cd06fef64c37d8985a6a.png

    v

    image.thumb.png.784c32e4f5894da9d464e5b7f5812cbb.png

     

    ie Oct v Sept run for 3.4. It's quite a big shift towards a strong event. Not good news for later winter cold perhaps - unless we get a shattered vortex. All these teleconnections are important....but on their own they mean little. I'd have preferred this indicator to stay at around the -1.5 mark though rather than suggest -2........

    I don't suppose you know of any cold or at least half cold UK winters that coincided with a strong Nina? 

    Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    There is nothing positive about that GLOSEA run...the NDJ anomaly suggests a Sceuro block at best, with the +NAO intensifying further into winter.

    I had hoped for a better run to be honest.

    There is a positive in the sense that it is quite a marked improvement on September's update for early winter. There is also wiggle room for a further improvement on the next update in November. 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Very brief though-

    By month's end the TPV was pumped

    image.thumb.png.eb0c97a2e251314bc2ec8e3d9dca3fee.png

    There was very little forcing from the Siberian side too...

    In contrast, the longer range modelling is pumping out scenarios such as this for month's end-

    image.thumb.png.cbb2c04c011831d4355dcddb463f70ce.png

    This morning's ECM was even more extreme-

    image.thumb.png.7c06b8f536e0d92f556f5c858bae3787.png

    I agree. The medium to longer range modelling seems to be firming up on a more persistent negative AO signal for the rest of October. If this turns out correct then it certainly won't harm our winter prospects. 

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Catacol said:

    The sought after sweet spot I think from a statistical point is weak/moderate Niña and eQBO. There was a good chance of this developing....and then (as per the Masiello “lol”) we have had one half of that combination torn away. Call it bad luck... more likely call it climate change impacts. 
     

    Years of watching for cold winters has taught us all that we get mild and unremarkable about 4 winters out of 5, and that in the ones where cold develops it is usually only a shortish spell. I have reluctantly had to alter my own KPIs for success. Gone is the hope of a 63 or a 47 because I think these sorts of winters are now a part of history. Instead the short sharp cold shot is more realistic and we have seen these over the last 12 years. These will continue to happen, and perhaps climate change will make the freakish kind of Beast from the East vortex reversal more likely from time to time.
     

    For this reason smoothed average pressure anomaly charts over 1 or 3 months are about as much use as a chocolate teapot. We will still see snow from time to time when synoptics align to bring us cold air from north or east combined with a never ending supply of moisture from the west, but perhaps searching for a cold season across multiple weeks is now a hunt for fool’s gold. In that respect seeing the QBO once again pulled off course is unwelcome but not a deal breaker in the rather gloomy context of U.K. winters in a warming world. Just so long as it doesn’t end up being quite as bad as the winter we got after the last QBO disruption....

    Best and most realistic post I have seen for a long while on this forum. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Trough digging down across NE/central Europe and Atlantic ridge building north by day 10 got support from 00z GEFS mean though

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.3b05e179937084b900b7b098eab61eae.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.fa78b480f038b5716c73a620b69bd238.png

    And reasonable support from members in the stamps, though variations between NWly and Nly.

    stamps.thumb.png.d18030edb8592806b90112d841b0759b.png

    Indeed. There is some level of support. Toppler looks like the form horse at the moment but there is time for this one to upgrade somewhat. Getting to that stage in the next day or two when we we need to see gfs and ecm ops consolidate on that amplification at day 9. 

    Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by blizzard81

    55 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Things do indeed look a little grim. We can only comment on the output. However, after 16 years of watching the weather models, I do have a crumb of comfort. Sometimes they all pick up a signal then drop it only to pick it up again. I've seen it many times before. I wouldn't be surprised to see a much more amplified 12z ecm op run in the next hour. 

    Voilà - Never give up hope!

    Screenshot_20200104-185759.png

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Things do indeed look a little grim. We can only comment on the output. However, after 16 years of watching the weather models, I do have a crumb of comfort. Sometimes they all pick up a signal then drop it only to pick it up again. I've seen it many times before. I wouldn't be surprised to see a much more amplified 12z ecm op run in the next hour. 

    • Like 2
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