[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

What an upgrade from 24 hours ago. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

41 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs loses the plot day 12 ..... even more JFF than usual past this point ......

I have noted that at this point, this is the second consecutive op to dispense with the W Russian ridge as week 2 progressss 

However, that does seem to tie in with the latest extended from Exeter. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

A very intruiging battle seems to have commenced. We have some very positive (from a cold perspective) developments in the short to mid term. However, the long term seasonal models are seemingly digging their heels in with their positive nao outlook. I feel a mix of tension and excitement! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well ec46 weeks 4 to 6 haven’t proved particularly reliable for ages .... when was the last time that the meto 30 dayer didn’t mention ‘uncertain’ in the first sentence! ( or a phrase to that effect) 

Plus, doesn't it only go to the middle of December? 

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

Just to illustrate how the tpv over north east Canada was over estimated. The ecm day 10 chart from the Friday 12z for 11th November compared to today's day 7 chart for the same date. 

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

Ecm control run for debilt goes cold (and possibly snowy?) towards the end 

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

1 minute ago, Don said:

As nice as these charts are to view, I fear we will be looking at somewhat different looking charts in two months time.......

The negative tilting trough is always a promising sign for developments down the line imo. 

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

A healthy looking 10 day mean from ecm for those of a cold persuasion. 

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

Much better from ecm. 

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

Liking the way the low stalls in our vicinity with the high getting sucked back into the Atlantic instead of meandering into Iberia. Reminds me of of early Nov 2009 and 1962.

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

Three of the most severe winter spells of the last century. Moral of the story? The PV doesn't have to be obliterated to kingdom come. 

[Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition]

We are certainly due a decent December cold spell. I wouldn't be surprised to see one this year. Just basing this on the law of averages, nothing scientific at all. 

 

[Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition]

Does anyone know what phase sun cycle we were in from 1988 to 1990? Were we in solar max or solar min? 

[Will we get another 2008-2013 run of colder winters again?]

3 hours ago, Yarmy said:

September's NAO came in (marginally) negative at -0.16

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/

For what it's worth, that's 5 months in a row of -NAO, in contrast to just 2 of the previous 19.  October looks like it could be negative too, although still early and I've probably just jinxed it. 

We had 16 (count 'em) months in a row of -NAO around the 2009/2010 period. Solar signal or just a stochastic process? 

That's very interesting. Thank you for that info. I for one am a big believer in solar minimum affecting our winter weather - in a nice cold, snowy way :)

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

Ecm looking very similar to early October 1981. I'll say no more :) 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I am throwing in the towel now. It's just not going to happen this winter. Let's hope our fortunes are better next winter. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I think the yanks have crashed the GFS - salivating over those brutal cold uppers whilst we sweat it out over a possible wet snow puddle

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Good continuity from the GFS. It can be like a dog with a bone though.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

I had one of those it turns out you just unplug it

Shame we can't unplug the PV.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

That PV over Canada is like a fridge freezer that is impossible to defrost.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Incredible frigid cold seeping down into the US. This extreme is happening every winter now, no matter what the enso state is - it's ridiculous. Terrible for us as it always heads into the north Atlantic creating rapid cyclogenesis. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Model watching is akin to pulling teeth this winter. Ecm only seems to be wrong when forecasting winter nirvana. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

There have been downgrades in the very short term. These seem to have gone under the radar on here. One of the best examples is the updated 72hr fax chart for Saturday. Compare it the 96hr for the same day from yesterday. The new update is much flatter and much less inspiring for cold further down the line. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Another c**p ecm op that ends with the promise of a relatively mild easterly

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Oh no....ECM 216 shows MILD how will we cope. 

 

We are numb to it now lol.