[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM too far west on T216.  

On the other hand JMA T192 spectacular, so it is possible!

Remember the stonking jma runs a week or so ago? I'll say no more

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

You trust a 12s 198 hour chart that bears non resemblance to the 06z?

From past experience, the gfs 12z is more reliable than it's 06z sister. I will reserve judgement though until tonight's ecm. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, frosty ground said:

The general pattern of the 12z Runs really isn't that different from previous runs and it's all within the envelope of what is being shown across the board.

 

That may be true but the difference on the ground for the UK is immense. Let's be honest - that's all that really counts. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

We've got no chance from here. That low to the west of Ireland is a true limpet. Seen it so many times before. I wasn't expecting this to be honest. How cruel this game can be. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 12z is trully awfaul.

We should never trust the gfs 06 op and suite when it goes ultra amplified. It never verifies. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Only for high ground, looks like a classic hill snow chart to me, may be wintry showers might be another way to describe that.

ECM once again proving why it is the king of the models, all the models falling in line with it...as I kind of feared...

Yep. The ecm is certainly more king when it comes to spotting less cold solutions unfortunately. The writing is on the wall for this winter. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

12z trends looking ominous. The gfs 12z op is looking very ecm op esq to say the least and I don't like the ukmo 144 chart. My optimism is waning again. Is it just going to be one of those winters I wonder? Had many of those in my life time. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I think most on here are waiting for that grand set of 12z runs that always seem to cement a potent cold spell. Will it be today? 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Para - short for paradise

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, Weathizard said:

It is for some, but without any wedge or block to the north there’s not much chance of any of those lows diving southwards enough to deliver or pull in a sustainable flow.

The problem seems to be at the moment, we only seem to get these proper blocking charts when the models reduce in resolution so they don’t pick up these spoilers that almost always pop up when you get towards high res, I really hope the SSW downwelling can help us as I don’t want to make myself unpopular but I really just can’t see how we escape this pattern at the moment into anything sustainable.

Hard to disagree with anything you said there to be honest. We have been burnt so many times this season and for that matter many previous winters too. I still think we will be rewarded very soon though. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think everyone got burnt by the models one too many times and so have taken up different hobbies like knitting and watching cats playing the piano on youtube

And dancing on ice ha ha ha  

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Ahem! Let's keep the faith for just a little longer Stamina required! 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Unfortunately whilst that sector south of Greenland keeps popping up with little lows and short waves there will be no sustainable blocking, go through this run you’ll lose count of the amount of times the ridge looks like it wants to try and go north and a little spoiler runs over the top of it. Frustrating!

I know what you are saying but that low is a potential snow machine if it dives down towards the UK. I do feel that winter proper is about to start very soon. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

That chart looks absolutely brilliant. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Just take a look at the 96 hour chart from yesterday to todays 72 hour chart from gfs!!cold air still hanging on and no more westerly flow across the uk and we are stuck in a col!!surprised steve murr aint mentioned nothing yet!!

Think even Steve's exhausted this season lol. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Sorry, I forgot to attach the ens to my last post. I have attached it now. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Big push west of scandi high on gfs 06z at just 96 hours!!

Indeed. With regards to the ecm debilt ens, just look at that for just 4 days out. A high degree of uncertainty. Minus 7 to plus 8 at ground level - at just t96! Must be some easterlies in there. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

8 minutes ago, booferking said:

I would follow the ICON been doing rather well this spell.

I agree. The icon was having none of it with regards to the easterly. Look at what it shows now at only 5 days out. Look at those uppers to our north east. I am a big believer in things balancing themselves out. Coldies have suffered immensely this season so far. I have a feeling things are going to tip the other way quite rapidly now. Fun times in the near future for the coldies. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Either the ec46 is late or.....I'll say no more

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

If only this stupid little bit of energy wasn’t splitting off from that low towards southern greenland, stops any attempt at a ridge 

Incredibly frustrating. Many times I have looked at the Jan 47 archives and wondered how the same thing didn't happen then as the high built north.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, 78/79 said:

The way it going , probably a knackered out old one with half of its teeth missing, and blunt claws  

What I would give right now for half of what winter 78/79 gave

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I think (hope) it's ballsed up the progression between 192 and 216. It just seems wrong.

But the 192 chart hardly looks promising. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Well what an awful ecm that was. This winter really is turning into a shocker. All the positive we seem to have had and looks like heading for a total bust. Ec46 has been garbage this winter. First it was a pattern change after Christmas. Then the big change was around the 10th January. If I’d got a pound for a 10 day chart this winter I’d be a very rich man. Just feels this winter just isn’t going to happen for the majority of the U.K. at least looks like some helpful rain in next few weeks if ecm verifies.

The ec46 did exactly the same two or three years ago. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh dear oh dear oh dear the runs are getting worse as the days go on . Bet my house the extended eps are even worse tonight . It’s going one way the wrong way . 

Yep. I think all those of a cold persuasion should receive a medal for incredible patience this winter. It's been tortuous. 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

This is a very encouraging sign. The updated fax chart for Tuesday is more amplified in the Atlantic than the previous two charts for the same day. Far sharper with the US low.