[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

5 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Consistent as shown below - Greenland high will be way forward as oppose to Scandi high going by weeklies.

 

Cracking! We must also remember that this is from this morning's run which was slightly less favourable for cold in the extended.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I was just going to type i feel GFS 18Z is looking better ..

Yep, it is looking slightly less flat by t156.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

We really need a similarly wintry ecm 00z suite in the morning to settle nerves.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

We are still getting those Ensembles So what has changed?

The difference is those charts are for this coming Sunday. I don't think many of the ensembles are showing those sort of charts for Sunday now. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

No they are not- the ECM / UKMO are both as good as they have ever been in terms of cold 120-144- circa -7c filtering south, 

You are allowing the ECM day 9/10 & maybe a bit of the GFS to skew your view..

I do hope the ecm op is struggling Steve. If not, then??? 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Day 10 would amplify from there. Clue is in the HP up the E coast of USA/Canada, allied with Atlantic HP and trough digging S stateside. 

I can see what you mean but the problem we have is the models are downgrading at an earlier timeframe. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just now, wafjin said:

Really? have always taken everything 10 days out as gospel?

For someone called blizzard you sure don't like the idea of snow.

I love snow more than anyone but I am also a realist who says it as it is. All I am seeing is delay after delay. Most of the proper cold spells are actually brought forward in time, not put back. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

The WAA starting to head north new Newfoundland willsplit that PV in two, a big chunk will then drop down like the GFSP

I hope you are right lol. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

We're constantly weeing against the wind. Once again, at day 10 ECM shows some promise going forward...but the elephant in the room is that Canadian vortex lobe. Until that either backs off or splits we're on a ride to nowhere.

Day 10? Are you still viewing the 00z run?. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

As last year taught me, good things come to those that wait! 

Not hard to see a cold outbreak following that 240 chart  

Sorry but I couldn't disagree more. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I would suggest that you ask yourselves just one question today. How confident do you feel today about a significant cold spell starting in about 10 days time compared to how confident you felt 24 to 48 hours ago? Be honest. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

8 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Oh dear! The mean is now only at - 2 850s at 324+ compared to - 6 two days ago at the same time 

I will be more concerned if that trend continues on the 12z run. Never rated the 06z or it's ensembles. I personally think it should be scrapped altogether along with the 18z and we just have the 00z and 12z. This would help alleviate so much stress. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

What's happened to the wedge and subsequent slider? 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Look at its last four runs .... it can’t be leading the way in a different direction every 12 hours !

To be fair, every op run no matter which model we are referring to varies run to run. The last few ecm op runs have toyed with heights to our north/north east towards the end of the runs as opposed to heights to our north west. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

And for those just dismissing the ecm op out of hand, do so at their own peril. It very often leads the way when the other models still have their blinkers on. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Good gosh where has all the blocking gone on the 06z!!this is a serious worry man!!looks completely different to the last few out puts!!its close to pure zonality!!!i dont care if people bang on bout its the 06z its still a reliable run!!

There is something flattening the upstream pattern in the 5 to 7 day timeframe this winter. Not sure what it is but it's been happening all winter. So when days 8 to 10 work down to days 5 to 7, things don't look anywhere near as good as they did. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Much flatter in the Atlantic at day 5 compared to yesterday's run. Not good. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Is anyone expecting much next week?

21st onwards is the focus. 10/11 days away yet. 

I do hope we are not saying the same thing come Monday lol.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

GFS 18z ens are great. Look in tandem with the ecm ens which is always a good sign

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Drat it stopped at the best chart!!

Doing that a lot lately. Getting boring now! Yawn

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Going west based neg nao before the cold spell gets going. Getting silly now!

Then redeems itself. Like everything else at the moment - crazy times!

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18Z Para shaping up very nicely at 198..

Going west based neg nao before the cold spell gets going. Getting silly now!

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

This is happening - no doubt.

Absolutely. Too many getting hung up on the GFS 18z op. Has the pub run EVER verified ? Been model watching for 15 years now and I know what I think of the pub run - not repeatable on here lol Having said that, even the drunkard gets there in the end tonight

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Not necessarily.try telling that to those in the southwest or near the south coast like me. There will be a marginal zone somewhere and no matter what anyone thinks on here, no one will be able to predict where it is until very close to the time. Mind you if I was sitting on a Scottish hill, I would be a lot more confident! How many times have we looked at the M4 corridor as a dividing line.

Of course. However, I think this time round with very slack, stagnant conditions in the immediate run up, coupled with deep mid winter timing, most have a chance, even down there

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

11 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It wouldn’t take much for that little uk high to be further north atT+192 then we would be looking at a synoptic nirvana chart....

A little like the ecm op day 10.