[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

With -counter (due respect(..

Its a stagnant phase atm..and 2 be fully expected!.

So quotation/Analysis will likely mirror, the likes ALREADY informed.

And scrutinisation, of run 2 run synop- is invariable...and pointless..

Xmas comes nxt week..and many a children await with exitment...but its NAILED..as a date in non-change/transfer...

But our meteorolgical xmas...

Is there...only father xmas is not yet sure when 2 land on the roof!!!!

But the sleigh...is circling...!!

I always respect your posts sir! Here's hoping

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

20 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

My own view, is won't have to wait that long - a couple of weeks tops.

We do live in a very impatient world (more so than ever). I'm sure most would agree. Even I have the odd wobble from time to time

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Yes you can...

Although once a warming takes place and starts the flux..any 2ndary warm will be of almost imediate-..response...left hook..then upper cut 2 the chin!..

Stradling through 'vatious'..i said id post an- Analysis...

Though i'll wait until tmoz...

Tonights..can be very decent..

Although tmoz..will likely be mind blowing!!!...

The shelves are there ...honestly!!!

With all due respect, you have been saying this for quite a while now lol.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

There really isnt anything interesting to post at the moment bar the stratosphere situation!!infact if it wasnt for the ssw you be thinking we are heading for one of those 90s style winters block over southern europe and energy going over!!it really is that boring over the next 10 days lol!!

Just beat me to it. The model output is mind numbingly boring and that's why it is quiet in here. We may have to wait another month before anything exciting happens on the ground so to speak.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

The positive vibe has increased markedly as the day has progressed on here today and justifiably so imo. Much better news model wise (both strat and trop) as the day has gone on.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Looks like a very exciting couple of weeks model viewing coming up. Just in time for the holidays

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

3 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

How is NWP meant to cope with this when even 4 models across the strat cannot agree... Peak Eddy Heat Flux anomalies inbound within the next 24-48 hrs.

Simply put - not a chance any output has a ghost of a chance on reconciling on the NWP basis.

The most we can hope for is some kind of continuity in the strat vis a vis the technical reversal - as for the trop - it's a crap shoot.

I believe the phrase FergieWeather coined was Shannon Entropy - this more than any other phrase is redolent now.

 

 

Or on the other hand, does anybody really know how good or bad the NWP is? I know the point about the strat forecasts being more reliable than the trop forecasts but the fact remains that all the ensembles across the various models today are c**p. One would expect some degree of volatility in the ensembles by now but scant signs of this.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Icelandic site not updated yet!

Yep. Almost predictable now. Always happens (not just ec46) when anticipation is at it's greatest. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Just now, weirpig said:

To compare  240hrs  0z 6z   

Yep. That would be a start. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well the Para  is better  Cold in Europe much further west  cold a frosty nights as we approach the new year   quite a difference in the profile at such a range. 

Much better run for our neck of the woods. Need to see this built upon on the 12z runs. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

All this anti-negative tosh really does my head in to be honest. 'stop being negative' 'the negative nellie's are back' etc, etc. People are just posting what they see - just let them be and allow them to express themselves, even if it isn't what you want to hear. By all means offer counter arguments if you disagree but just responding with the 'negative' insults is just down right silly and immature imo. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

On a more positive note, the gfs para is an improvement at quite short range. Time for this model to start proving itself now though. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Even the comments in the strat thread are a bit more downbeat this morning. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Happy New Year! Deary me. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Quite a lot of odd posts on here this morning - in the famous words of mr b fawlty. - ‘what did you expect to see from a Torquay hotel window’ ............

no one has been touting the ‘hanging gardens of Babylon’ so why some are expecting to see them is quite odd

what is currently showing is that the ecm spreads can often be a better tool than the ecm clusters in the 7/10 day period - the upper ridge looks to be a little more suppressed than was showing a few days ago with the jet running across to our north 

Your last paragraph sums up why people on here are despondent this morning. Very flat output today. 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Here's a little fact for you all:

"How the MetO forecast is worded varies markedly depending on who is on the Medium range shift!"

some are reading way to much into this!

Heard from reliable sources that Darren Bett was covering this shift today!

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Here we go aka jan 47  or maybe not! 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Until you notice the CFS stamp on it

Fair point but on the other hand that week 4 chart seems to agree with the glosea and ecm pressure anomalies for winter. It therefore has good backing from the more respected models. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Interesting! 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Taking a leaf out of John Holmes's book. Compare yesterday's gfs 06z with this morning's for the same time. I know which one I prefer

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters. Christmas day : as suspected, the FV3 12Z held the middle ground now than the ECM op 12Z, which is an outsider 

Now onto the new year : UK ridge looks popular 

Best clusters I have seen so far this winter.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Lol the silence speaks volumes about where the 18z is going....

The pub run is decidedly sober tonight more like cold turkey!

Much better than last night's run up to day 8. A day of upgrades today which will hopefully build further on the 00z runs.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

A great positive vibe on this forum tonight. Quite a significant strat warming in the making, Xmas weather still up in the air - Willets (legend) giving great hope for Xmas like she did back in 2005 (and proved correct), GP posting in the strat thread. So much to look forward to. It really doesn't get much better than this Oh! And shaky is singing on TV - Merry Christmas everyone!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

My advice to anybody who is feeling dispondent this morning is to look at these two charts for next Saturday morning. The first is the recently updated gfs 06z and the second is from yesterday morning's run for the same time. Massive improvement imo. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 00z eps offer a route forward but it’s a slow burner ......mid lat ridging nw Europe and eastern Atlantic which exerts itself slowly nw towards se Greenland (NOT A GREENY HIGH).  at the same time an Atlantic trough dropping just west of the Azores and a developing scrussian trough could lead to an undercut of this ridge 

note that Europe cools as we reach the end of week 2 which makes me think the trough to our east will be advecting some colder air  around the ridge 

Yes, I am very encouraged by the ecm this morning. The op and ens are an improvement going forward compared to the last couple of runs. It seems to be a slow burner like you say. However, I think there is every chance things could be brought forward a few days as the ramifications of the strat warming sink into the model psyche.