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blizzard81

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Posts posted by blizzard81

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Interitus said:

    The SD is fine for comparison as long as it's realised the extremes aren't always as great as they at first appear.

    The dates with stronger 10 mb heat flux represent 9 different periods from 8 winters (with minimum u1060 in following 3 weeks) -

    29/12/84 -16.38
    08/01/91 7.97
    10/01/92 8.95
    22/01/08 19.42
    19/01/09 -31.08
    04/01/13 -12.29
    07/02/16 11.53
    05/03/16 -31.43
    11/02/18 -24.24

    5 of 9 had SSW in following 3 weeks (technically 4 of 9 as March 2016 treated as very early FW)

    Interestingly since and including the first reversal on the GFS 10/12 18z of the 20 runs 7 have had SSW but 13 without. Here are the minimum zonal winds for the runs since 09/12 0z -

    1636304182_gfszonalmin.thumb.png.1a13cfc6f7effd918790cb7f86c9599f.png

    And here are those runs in series (coloured by day) -

    1797508650_gfszonalseries.thumb.png.374841e93584028b80d6904ede373d3a.png

     

    I do get the feeling from your posts that you are a little reticent about this possible ssw event? Please correct me if I'm wrong.

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

    Yep! Been banging on about this for last couple of weeks. May be a spoiler for blighty, even if any SSW occurs.

    As many on here say when a HP establishes itself it can be a git to shift. Those heights have been there or thereabouts for a couple of weeks now and are likely to stay in pos for next 2 weeks.

    Yes, we need these heights to get sucked up to mid Atlantic heights rather than meandering over southern Europe. 

    • Like 1

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    The time is Christmas week......make sure you are where you want to be and get plenty of grub and booze in (get that anyway even if doesn't snow)......you know I've been saying it and saying it .  Very short term swing to mild next week before the main game starts   Trough to move s/SSE into Europe bringing very cold air from our north...to start with.

     

    BFTP  

    You have been saying this for a while now. We really need the ECM ops to stop their love ins with those spawning, relentless lows spinning off the us eastern seaboard.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Output is beginning to recognise the significance of the timing of +MT, MJO progression, background Nino and impact of heat transfer onto the vortex. Height rises out west to drive the trough further south, followed by invigoration of that trough via falling momentum phase - and meanwhile Greeny and Scandy height rises begin to link up. It's a near perfect sequence - and once again for all those moaning last night about how we cant predict anything and its all random blah blah - nonsense. There are spanners that regularly get thrown into the works and mess things up...but broadscale prediction is getting ever more possible with better and better tools. And this is one instance where we havent had a sudden uptick in solar activity, or a tropic storm in the wrong place....and the cold pattern will be completed on schedule. You have done well Lord Teleconnect....and now I sense that you wish to continue the search for the split vortex....

    Hehe. Such fun. But to anchor my mid afternoon drivel into something with a graphical solidity about it - how about a GFS ensemble image. Usually EPS gets the bigger coverage, but I think GFS has been handling the extended picture rather better in recent days. By the end of next week we have a very good signal for a cold trough with signs of continental cold being able to back west

    gfs_z500a_nhem_29.thumb.png.75a85a428435d0b90b5d6989ff8f679f.png

    ....and then within a few more days the heights back further west to Greenland and begin to pull in an ever more frigid flow from the E/NE

    gfs_z500a_nhem_37.thumb.png.69dc4feffafbfb38f105a46a4800dab9.png

    Being brutally honest cold rain for many will have to be endured as we progress through this phase - but the end result looks like an increasingly cold and wintry one. 

    Patience my friend. In time the Beast will seek you out, and when he does, you must bring him to me. He has grown strong. Only together with the additional benefit of a downwelling split vortex can we turn him to the Dark Side of The Force.......

    Isn't that the gfs 06z op anomaly? Not the ensemble mean anomaly.

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Not sure what to make of the 00Z runs so far..

    GFS looks cold around christmas so that gets the thumbs up from me..

    UKMO has a better profile to the NE but as mucka said, looks a little flatter in the Atlantic..

    Difficult to know how the 168 would look..

    GEM probably closer to GFS at 144 and goes and to produce a decent day 10 chart..

    I know what I think of them but can't repeat it on here lol. Much flatter runs. The ecm looks dreadful. 

    • Thanks 1

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Happy with the ec46 update - high heights and slp to the northeast edging from scandi to Greenland weeks 3 through 6 with the storm  track into Europe to our south - possibly edging a little too far north for comfort later on but we will take that for a third consecutive good run 

    And that's from this morning's run. The 12z run ramps things up further so these synoptics could come a little sooner maybe. 

    • Like 1
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