blizzard81
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Posts posted by blizzard81
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9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
No comment on GFS 18z - not surprised it shows the high sinking very quickly south, despite it shown to ridge north and north east - it seems to split the trough to the east of it - all rather odd.. creating shortwave activity to ride over it, whilst also building heights to the NW out from the Pole. In my view its an odd evolution.
It is an upgrade in the 4 to 6 day timeframe and that's all that counts. The GFS 18z doesn't have a clue post day 7 at the best of times and believe me, these are not the best of times for weather models
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See the upgrades? Compare and contrast. There are so many examples I could use today. Trying my best to get the message across for all you cold lovers
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24 minutes ago, lorenzo said:
I thought it was the 12z from tonight, apologies.
Anyway on wards to Berlin in the morning !
See my reply to ArHu3
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33 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:
Ventrice is looking at the old EC run from yesterday
You need to click the play button in the centre. It then plays the animation of each run from the 26th Dec up to the 12z run of today which looks really peachy
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This morning's ecm control was an undercut. Tonight's gfs para was an undercut. Mmmm!
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Interesting spreads on the eps ........ the heights into scandi are likely to be stronger than the mean shows and there is a cluster that has a wedge to the north with an associated nor’easter into the ne of the uk ....... it looks messy .........clearly many ways around the circle but only one will be correct.!
Wedge to the north sounds interesting. Maybe like gfs para run. Would be nice to see some convergence between ecm and the para.
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The trends have been great today. Yesterday's ecm day 10 mean compared to today's day 9. Very nice upgrade.
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10 minutes ago, LRD said:
ECM 240 looks ok. Can definitely see a route to a cold pattern for the UK from that
Yes, day 10 looks good. However as ever, I'm not too fussed about day 10 charts. This really is one of those situations where the upgrades could really stack up in the 4 to 6 day timeframe over the next 48 hours.
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And the ecm goes confused.com at day 9. No worries from me though. Don't go beyond day 5 at the moment. Anyone who can't see the short term upgrades today need to go to specsavers. Most of the best cold spells are born out of upgrades at very short notice.
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Time for the gfs para to prove itself - and what better way to do that with a chart like this at 168hrs. I am hoping to see similar on tonight's ecm
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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
The one thing that hasn’t changed is the lobe of death piece of vortex, doesn’t really matter what happens on no model is that ridge going to do anything significant for us unfortunately.
Frigid easterlies nearly always have those angry lobes to our north west. Have a look in the archives at previous classic easterlies and you will see what I mean.
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To all those sceptical of how much things can change for the better in the 6 day timeframe, look at yesterday's 156hr gfs para and compare to this evening's 132hr chart
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Right. It would be fair to suggest the ukmo to be a rogue run as the icon and gfs have upgraded. A crucial ecm tonight.
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A downgrade from ukmo unfortunately.
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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
So close to what? There’s too much energy coming out of that lobe of death and the ridge is doing nothing really it’s not going north it’s just slowly collapsing pushing the cold into Southern Europe.
Its more amplified but it’s simply not enough, we would require significant upgrades within that time frame which I’m not convinced by.
See my post at the top of this page. Now just imagine if the amplification upgraded to a similar extent by tomorrow's 12z run. It would be game on imo.
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We just need that little extra push of amplification north eastwards. The ecm and ukmo are leading the way here. Tonight's runs will be fascinating!
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
ICON significantly more amplified at T165
Decent run.
Indeed. So close now
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This is how far we have come in the last 24 hours on the icon.
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Just now, tight isobar said:
Certainly some interesting 12z suites await..given current by standings.......
Here's hoping sir
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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:
EC Ensembles
Cold D6/7/8 then uncertainty sets in big time!
Uncertainty is a good sign in situations like this.
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:
TBH if i had a quid for everytime i have heard' the control looks good ' over the years i would be a millionaire..
12zs soon be out, will GFS back down i wonder..
Cmon northwest. Keep holding that nerve! A broken clock - remember?
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
Just seen up to day 11 ... ongoing - the control undercuts
Wow! Now that is interesting Wasn't sure if it was just cold anticyclonic. Let's keep the faith. Much needed good news for us cold chasers.
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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Maybe even the ICON model is going to adjust west? That would be good. It would be very, very good!
It certainly would. Not long to find out now
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
Can’t - weatherbell hasn’t updated .... wasn’t a leading question ....
Ah, ok lol. Well, I can look at debilt which everyone has access to.I'm sure you have seen them. Control looks like it could be interesting.
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The burning question is why more Nina than Nino? I wonder if anybody has any theories on this?