blizzard81
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Posts posted by blizzard81
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Oh my word! The pub run is about to shower us in lager and bourbon
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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
Step in the Right direction at day 7
We even manage to scrape some sort of easterly out of it.
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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Control looks good
But is the control run ever going to verify lol.
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Not much joy to behold in the ecm ext ens. Apart from that one straggler.
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As long as the eps remain flatter, we should all still be wary about any possible cold spell. The ecm ext ens need to start smelling the coffee soon.
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Ecm and gfs determined to make the return to work even more painful!
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13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
Game over at 168 #BitDramatic
Your opportunity to mention the lobe of death just for a change.
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Doesn’t look like the pub run is in the mood .....
The pub run is only ever in the mood when it's wrong so thank goodness for that.
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1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:
Happy New Year....Have a large gin on me
Bless the gfs 18z pub run.
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:
EC46 is about as useful as a condom in a nunnery. If we were to believe its prediction from a few weeks back, we'd be seeing snow next week.
They actually cum in much more good use than what you would think in such places! Lol
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Not as good as previous. Difficult to tell but maybe be the dreaded west based neg nao showing it's hand.
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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
EC46 in line with my thoughts, cool / cold zonality week 3 with some plunges possible transitioning into more blocked week 4.
It isn't all that special actually, i dont like that Atlantic trough potential, could that be because the SSW spit wasn't far and wide enough.
Haven't seen the charts (don't know why you don't post them?) but that omni present Atlantic trough has been a pain in the back side since the early promise of late November cold. It has served to keep pressure high over Iberia and France. A real winter killer. Apart from the gfs ext ensembles things don't look too good to me tonight.
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18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
The modelling is generally drifting towards the solution offered in the extended Meto forecasts .........
Nah! Ecm control would surely disagree?
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7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Another failed attempt at much colder weather unless the high has been modeled wrong, needs to be 500 miles further n and w. What a frustrating country UK is for cold, should all just visit Canada in January, save all the frustration in here every single winter
We really could be in a much more dismal position as we enter a new year. In fact I can't remember entering a New Year on such a cold, anticyclonic note.
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Latest fax chart for next weds - first day back to work for many, including me.The cold, seasonal feel with frost all day and possible freezing fog will make the return to work more bearable for me Also an impressive surge of cold into mainland Europe. We will be very grateful for this a week or so down the line.
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12 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
I’m watching it roll out right now, and whilst it’s more interesting than some of the other dross being modelled at the moment it’s still not going to lead anywhere significant.
Call me a glass half empty but even with these significant upgrades as you suggest, there’s really nothing THAT significant showing up, until that lobe of the vortex moves or is impacted by the SSW it’s going to be a serious struggle in my opinion, I also think a GH is radically more likely than a scandi one.
Just my personal opinion but I’m looking longer term.
I respect your opinions just like I respect everyone else's opinions on this forum. Time will tell as always. Onto the 00z runs. I for one will be looking for further amplification upgrades that we have seen throughout the course of today.
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Great continuity between the GFS Para 12z run and 18z run. Not identical by any means but the trend is the same.
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6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
Upgrading what? There’s not a plausible way the chart leads to anything noteworthy, the lobe of death and pressure to our south being the biggest problems, the only possible way is the undercut and that won’t happen because the high has nowhere to go so just keeps building. Upgrades if you live in Greece maybe.
Are you saying you don't see any potential in this chart at all? Are you not seeing any upgrades today at all? Seriously?
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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
Upgrading what? There’s not a plausible way the chart leads to anything noteworthy, the lobe of death and pressure to our south being the biggest problems, the only possible way is the undercut and that won’t happen because the high has nowhere to go so just keeps building. Upgrades if you live in Greece maybe.
Did you not view the GFS 12z Para or for that matter the ongoing 18z para?
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Really liking the look of the GFS 18z para. That low over Finland looks like it will sink naturally under rising pressure on it's north west flank - our possible scandi high
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Another upgrade alert! So many it's untrue
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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:
It’s on the move now
Hallelujah! Lol. Cheers
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And the fax charts are late - quelle surprise!
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How did I know this was coming? GFS para stuck on 96hrs!
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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The model output is at best mediocre, at worst a bit of a bore. What has struck me over the last couple of days is the complete absence of any freezing cold flat liners in any ensemble suite.