[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Ukmo 120hr fax chart to agree with the JMA tonight? - No chance!

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, ghoneym said:

Verification stats chart shows the JMA should not be ignored. In third behind the ECM and just behind the UKMO. Just thought I would clear that up. 

Now is it's perfect chance to shine then

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

4 minutes ago, snowbob said:

I think the ecm might be the first model trying to get a handle on this @96

something has clearly made all models wobble in high res

this ain’t over yet

just my opinion put your weapons down

I never had a weapon but I do so hope you are correct

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, next weeks E'ly seemed too soon, view models now, hope no downgrades for 28th

Too soon? We've been waiting since the last third of December lol. 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

JMA 192 (Am I on everybodies ignore?) 

No, JMA is on everybody's ignore list, like the GEM. 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

As long as the ukmo remains rock solid, I will remain optimistic. Still time for the ecm to revert back later today. Bring on the 12z runs. 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

You have to have a bit of humor even when you have that awful feeling in the back of your mind..

Indeed. We have been here many times. Most of us want something extreme. I am 50/50 after the ecm op but still strangely optimistic lol. The debilt ext ens were much better than I expected

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

All sorts incoming from the east, holy shmoley, pub runT174:

The pub run has never been wrong at that timeframe

 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Do you think we are still in business Ed? -  Darren Bett thinks not - i need something to give me confidence - the only thing that will make me feel better is a good EPS ./ ECM overnight early doors.

We need two things. Firstly, we need a damned good ecm 00z op in the morning. Secondly, we need to stop listening to what Darren Bett says. 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Just want to add this thought to the mix. It was mentioned on here a few years ago that although the ecm was regarded as the best model in general, this was based on it's medium to long term performance. Up to day 4 it was not the most reliable and we should look more towards the ukmo at this timeframe. Something to ponder after that ecm 12z op. 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS a step more amplified through 78 & the jet profiles mean more of a Pressure rise east of Greenland...

Indeed. Don't normally trust the pub run but at 78hrs out - surely

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles 12Z... London mean 850s stay between minus 5C and minus 6C right out to February 1st. 

That's good news. Thanks for keeping us updated on those. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just now, Matthew. said:

5 models with the ECM the odd one out, all the rest looking colder/snowier/north-easterly feed

The ecm has the dreaded hump of doom over the north sea. This stops the cold uppers in their tracks to our east. This has happened so many times in the last 15 years. Why? 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

We have to hope here that the ecm has gone into one of it's attention seeking moods. This does happen lol. Let's face it, most of us will be glued (through gaps in fingers) to the 00z run in the morning. Your attention seeking has worked already ecm. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Very nervy 00z ecm in the morning. Doesn't really matter what the 12z ens say as the op more often than not leads the way. Just going on past experience. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

remember you need easterlies at t96 before you can they they will verify ,see it go wrong so many times before.Horrible run from ECM,compared to previous runs.We always get this when we have a big chance of an easterly.Always ys one model flips ,let’s hope it flips back to much colder next run

I agree. West based you know what at the end just to add salt to the wounds. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

This happens 9 times out of 10 when we rely on an Arctic high. It is the biggest weather tease of all time. It looks to be doing all the right things until the 3 to 4 day timeframe - then it just giggles and slinks away. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I had a feeling the ecm would throw out a shocker tonight. Seen this scenario so many times before. The other models come into line but the one that was originally going hell for leather drops the baton at the last minute. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Will tomorrow morning bring consolidation of the easterly and dare I say maybe even upgrades, or GFS reverting back to it's earlier output and ECM watering down on it's present output? Brave person to call it.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

GFS 18z gets all kinky at 180hrs

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

GFS joins the ECM party

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

The niggling feeling I have is that all our cold eggs are in one basket - the ecm basket. Tomorrow will be very revealing as the ukmo will come into view of the critical 5 to 6 day timeframe. We need this model on board before we half open the prosecco

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

A lesson I have learnt over the years is that if the ecm op is the only model showing a high degree of amplification to our north west, only trust this if it ticks down to the 4 day mark. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Reminds me of a couple of years ago, maybe 3 when the ec46 relentlessly promised winter wonderland that never materialised. This could be ecm's worst hour. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

GFS definitely more amplified towards Greenland.