thebigyin

More showers hitting as others have already said, and I'd not noticed. Always a good sign while on lamppost duty to see snow falling up. Very gusty winds in showers and some drifting down the street...must be getting some good drifting in the sticks

Looks like it'll just keep coming with you hopefully some inbound here shortly too..some finally tracking just on/North of the A96. Is the A96 our version of the M4 the mad place berate ?!

Just missed that streamer to West...with current direction looking to stay that way for a wee while yet by the looks of upstream. Plenty of time and just needs one good 'un! Everything sticking now at least but just a wee skiff so far

More like it now, flakes are fluffy and sticking better. Apologies for technical terms.

Temp still bouncy but note comments on deeper cold inbound. Also seems to be showers are getting more intense to the north...? Temp cover in my part of town, a proper cover building atcthe golf course so my bats are retired for thecweek. In heavy bursts sone light drifting starting...love it, and all the other reports! Nae a bad volley from the daughter 20240114_111553.mp4

A wee skiff it seems and looks like a bit more organised stuff inbound (as long as @Mair Snaw does not steel it all).

Good to see @Halfamilefromnowhere 🌨 Not too much activity here yet I don't think..dark and just woke up... . Temps still dropping slowly and bouncing about a bit now 1c and similar dp. Spotted a post by @doctormog on the other side highlighting lp off Norway making way down. Lots action on satellite up north filtering down...hopefully see some white stuff today

Colder dps creeping in to the north. 3.6c/3c here, temps now falling 1.5c/hrs presently. Ooh, @Halfamilefromnowhere just posted Edit - oh, thought might be first snow report

Interesting options later next week...stop it big yin, here and now... Still felt cold this morning and not as taps aff as i expected, slightly milder feel early afternoon. Now temp 5c, td 3c here, temp dropping 0.5c/hrs. Light breeze swinging more NNW. Ground still clinging on to a bit of frost. Birds fed.

Yes, much bickering, told you so's etc in there today. It was an interesting build up though and i thought models did well to get us to where we are consistently, but i can see why they are disappointed...options of prolonged outbreak (??), easterly (???), etc but looks unlikely now. To my eye though this is prolonged in "UK" terms...its often just 1-3 day events. Beyond next week then probs wetter/milder/windy but lots of interst in long range still to my eye...but I'll do my best to live in the here and now.... So, here we go!!! Taps aff today and looks a good day to get some jobs done , then who is going to report the first snow in here And when... ? 🌨 A full week pretty much of some potential for pretty much everyone. And some thoroughly fresh air to enjoy even if you don't . I love weather

Who knows how much, but Sunday Monday met suggestions fae twatter. I'll buy you a beer if we don't see any

"pull" with winds and if you follow pressure contours the pull is obvs dragging south but also east First Weather warnings out

And yes, it is so complex ! It was mentioned somewhere (maybe here, maybe TWO, maybe MAD place), that in reality if you look at say projections now for say 5 days time, it is incredible the accuracy across the models really. Often I see a MAD house post that says "look how big the differences are from one run to next, or from reality at day 0 to projection 5 days previous)" and I look at i and it often seems to me to be so minor the details and differences really. But as you say, for us, those minor differences tend to make all the differences!! s

@Ravelin @Hairy Celt - yeah, absolutely For context then my interest in weather is exactly that...I love all weather and developments, but unfortunately I have spent a bit of a my early career in the maths/fluid dynamics world, so this is quite unfortunate for my condition/addiction as I think everything can be solvable. These models and some experts on various forums though are many many leagues above me in any knowledge! But yeah, as you both say, we will have to wait and see and for next week ~I am happy some (or all !!) of us will see snow - maybe a lot here and there, and also maybe a brief milder incursion and drier incursions etc. I tend to look to week ahead, as that is what interests me (as it is so complex and changing), so just trying to understand that a bit better

Unfortunately think I'm well passed the cusp and in to the "decades" now addiction! Any thoughts around contined deviation of GFS "vs." The rest and notably the euros? Is it linked to the jet split, or more complex than that? I guess my fear today is a) over these decades I've seen GFS do really well when it seems unflavoured...not necessarily bringing cold spells, but sometimes. Seen opposite too of course. But jet split is way way west of us obvs, so b) is GFS better at modelling that theoretically given its origins? the 12z will be all changes again of course!

South of the M4?? - apparently all rain! Otherwise, I'd be optimistic for anywhere in Scotland, but we'll have to wait a bit more to seeas each run is still chopping and changing details but great viewing...I'm up to 30 Internet tabs open, most of which are weather related. I probably need some sort of counselling.

Well, GFS...Maybe all is forgiven Still all a bit up in the air so to speak, but not hard to find multiple interesting scenarios!! But my understanding it seems to have (possibly...time will tell) got some cut off features correct but backtracked a bit and better profiles way north. Interesting and unstable airflow with wee lows (polar?) Wrapped up in it. Something for everyone there!

@lorenzo wow! Thanks for taking the time to reply in such detail

With the GFS op "different", and many of its ensembles bouncing about, and generally being warmer than ideal later in run, reading above then if op gets something different (maybe wrong, hopefully!) Is same difference/error across all ensembles to an extent? Or if we see another (I.e like a few years back where ECM was right and GFS stayed stubbornly different until just a few dsys until coldbreak occurred) correction towards other models do fundamentals in all ensembles change too.? Very messy questions, apologies if makes no sense or daft!

Nerves definitely calmed a bit. Woukd have been interesting to see a few more time stamps from here...central belt burried!

Mad house bingo - "vital ECM coming up..."! The GFS is annoying in its wobbles...ringing in my ears is if something can go wrong, it will re the models and our country, but even then GFS is not exactly a disaster. I'll take a chill pill!

I prefer this frame

Over in Kenmore this week and getting a bit snowy here too will enjoy before sleety rainy mess descends. Been a fair bit more since photo

Yep @Norrance, older bro reporting a few inches fallen in last hour or so and still going.

I second this. Have same weather station and in to 3rd or 4th year now. Other than possibly change batteries, it has behaved well and the app gives you lots of info, history, etc.