Gustywind

Monday certainly looks to have upgraded, along with Thurs/Fri also in terms of snow. Tonight though seems to have downgraded for my location, only showing an hour of snow now & turning later than forecast this morning. Think a covering at best now.

GEM looking good for region on Monday also, especially north & east.

Interesting over on Twitter, Matt Hugo saying models definitely underestimating level of showers/streamer activity forecasted to come off the N Sea over next few days.

Agreed, although I’m very much on the Worcs/Bham/Warks border so Bham is probably a closer fit for my area than Worcs, not that this makes much difference to the amount of snow I’m likely to see. Tonight looks like we may see a cm or two if we’re lucky, bit more further east & North perhaps. Just need the rain to switch over ideally a bit quicker than currently indicated if we’re to avoid a thin, slushy covering that quickly melts. Then it’s pot luck to an extent on whether a streamer sets up & whether it hits your area or leaves you in an infuriating gap!

You can only go by what the models are suggesting though, anything else has no evidence to back it up, of course the models could change & throw up a surprise or two, and personally I think that’s quite possible, but equally you can’t ignore the fact that aside from Sat night, there’s little showing currently. As for experience, I’ve lived through plenty of easterlies & plenty have been cold but dry, I remember the Feb 86 one in particular & how irritating it was day after day, hearing about snow showers in the East, while in the Midlands we stayed frosty but very dry!

Yes looking pretty bone dry but freezing for most of us sadly, really annoying seeing no precipitation on the charts for the Mids, while north, south, east & west of us get plenty! Hopefully something will crop up during the week, as the breakdown looks a lame duck also in terms of snow!

GEM much better than GFS or UKMO with front aligned NW/SE as opposed to pointing NE & dragging up SW’s ahead of it. Need the former 2 to move to this scenario if we’re to get a decent battleground event.

Where could this still all go wrong Nick? Looks pretty much cast iron guaranteed up till Thursday, just the possible breakdown after that which is uncertain. Is that how you see it or is there still doubt over the initial Easterly?

Well maybe, but then we live in times when extreme weather events seem to be becoming increasingly common. The BFTE from March 2018 was remarkable from a cold perspective, today’s runs equally incredible, more from a snow perspective. Personally I thought the 12z’s yesterday were being far too progressive removing northern blocking & reinstalling the Atlantic in charge. Too abrupt a change for me, this mornings runs look far more realistic to me, with blocking still evident & fronts held up at the end of next week. Things could downgrade though the pattern looks fairly set to me till the middle of next week at least, it’s just the end of the week that needs resolving, but I’d not be surprised if it ends up similar to this mornings runs. EDIT - Most likely way we’ll see a downgrade I reckon is for the front at end of next week to be weaker & go through France instead, so blizzard misses to the south. We’d obviously stay cold in such scenario though with snow showers likely!

We’ve certainly seen an improvement this morning, after yesterday’s runs we looked cold but mainly dry, only areas in N&E of region looked likely to see material levels of snow (upwards of 5cms). Today looks much better though & if correct, most of us should see some decent amounts of snow, albeit not as much as those living North of the M62! Hopefully that channel low on the ECM will hit as for the biggest depths we need a proper front here.

North of Hinckley

It’s not really surprising, if the ECM is right you’d see areas north of the Midlands turn into Narnia, while Midlands/South are cold but mostly green.

GFS is clueless, it’s proved that via its backtracking earlier in the run, stick with the UKMO, absolutely rock solid & unlikely to be wrong at T96

Only really on the GFS, the UKMO has always been Saturday as has the ECM.

Will this become ‘That GFS’ run?

It’s not great for the South & SE, for rest of U.K. it’s fine, providing it doesn’t move further to ECM tomorrow.

Was it Jan 2013 when the UKMO was rock solid for a wedge & subsequent snow event, while the ECM refused to come on board with the rest? Think it went down to literally T+72 before it finally caved in. Just my opinion but the ECM seems to have been all over the place recently, so not as concerned it’s right this time as I would be normally. If UKMO & ECM end up meeting in the middle is that pretty much the GFS solution?

Like the sound of that just need to get the blasted DP’s below zero now!

Much heavier here now also but still struggling to settle.

Agreed.

Back more to sleet:rain also here, must be in a milder pocket. Wind has got up a bit more also. Still fairly light though, can’t see this are getting much (if anything) from this. Bit too mild still, precipitation too light, the wrong time of day & saturated ground.

150m here & turning increasingly to snow here, but not particularly heavy so far so can’t see anything settling for now.

We thought that last Sunday though & you were pretty much in the sweet spot in the end! Think this could surprise again but worried not quite cold enough for a repeat of last week,

Midlands Today saying rain moving up from SW, risk of a little wintriness over Shropshire Hills only?

Met Office app has downgraded Saturday also, was heavy snow for South Brum 6am - 12 at lunchtime, now sleet. Let’s hope things upgrade tomorrow, still time.