Gustywind

That’s the posh bit of Stoke !

Ended up with about 3-4 cms in the end, biggest fall since March 2018!

Decent covering here now & still coming down hard.

It’s an anti Worcestershire conspiracy!

That’s outrageous you’re only just up the road from me!

Edit - 90% snow now & settling already which I’m surprised to see, DP must be below zero?

Just sleet here, not heavy enough to fully transition & stick.

Snow here now also, very rapid changeover & temp drop. Not sure we’ll get much more than a bit of a covering at best though as heaviest stuff looks to be moving away east now. Lighter stuff to come.

Still throwing it down with rain here but if it’s starting to turn in Harborne (8 miles away) hopefully should start turning soon here.

Very heavy rain here just south of Birmingham. Reports of heavy snow in places like Stoke.

Looks like the trough to the NE of U.K. is less deep than previous?

The Jan 1940 chart is much better, far stronger GHP exerting its influence south of Iceland even, supported perfectly by the Arctic High working with it. This years chart has a far weaker GHP, struggling to exert much of a pressure rise on Iceland & the Arctic High less supportive - pointing towards Siberia.

Happy personally that the 0z runs are better than yesterday’s horror show! Still think ECM is blowing up the low too much in the mid range. Hopefully the 12s will show an improvement on yesterday also. Still a lot of uncertainty though over strength of Greenie ridge & exactly where it’s placed, think it was the GEM today that built it too far west & we ended up with a W neg NAO.

Think it’s perfectly feasible though that as we get closer we see the pattern edge further south, and systems slightly weaker. This then brings snow more into play for parts of the U.K. next week (North always favoured). The models may have overreacted to the new signal they’ve picked up on.

East Midlands yes.

Not sure I’d use the word dominated, a few areas have done well but my area (which is in the West Mids) has only had a couple of thin coverings so far.

Trouble is once downgrades begin they usually go from strength to strength. In truth it began before this morning, with the much deeper cold from the NE being replaced yesterday with a more tepid/marginal affair, good still for the North, not so good further south. Now we’ve seen even this downgrade. Those elusive Greenie highs remain elusive.

True, I still remember plenty of moaning back in Dec 2010!

We need something like the JMA chart posted earlier with the pattern further east & the northerlies taking a more direct route to U.K., net result is the lower 850s further south. Hopefully we’ll get something close to that pattern come day 7/8.

Still got to get past the so far insurmountable obstacle of converting a FI Greenland high scenario into reality, we’ve seen so many of these in the +200 hour range, only to see it quickly fall apart as small features around S Greenland get picked up in the more reliable range & prevent ridging. Will this time be any different? Not confident it will be.

Rarely post but have lurked for over a decade, so thought I’d add my thoughts for once! Strikes me that we have a recurring issue, the alluring promise of GHP in +200 hour charts on the GFS, but which never come to fruition. Once we get down into the more reliable range the models pick up on disturbances in the GIN corridor, particularly the S Greenland area, this then prevents the Greenie High & the U.K. gets left with a toppling high or stuck with a trough on or around the U.K. Im yet to see anything in the models today to suggest this issue is going away. What’s causing it I’ll leave to the experts - SST’s, global warming ?? Perhaps models struggle with energy distribution until nearer the time? If we can overcome this then something like the GFS (P) has shown today is quite possible, big IF though sadly!

That big blob of snow over the Cotswolds across to Bristol is incredible, just keeps on re-energising itself and has barely moved for hours, must have dumped incredible amounts over that area by now.

Snow on edge of Worcester & Stratford now, cmon snow keep pushing north!

Snow closing in on a line from Hereford to Gloucester currently.

South Wales looks the sweet spot to me, Brecons should do well.