mikeocarroll

Extremely foggy last night on the A44 back from Aberyswyth. Cold and grey here still, same story as for the last week. A pity so much cloud is trapped under the high, if it was sunshine it would be so much better. Might see the odd break in the cloud today and the weekend looks like it might be a bit clearer.

5.6C. Last March was lovely but it feels like spring will be late to get going this year.

There seems to be an area of light to moderate precipitation developed over NE Wales and staying in situ, hard to say whether it will last or not, could deliver 2-3cm of snow to a few favoured spots.

Agree with most of the above re: this winter. A bit colder than average, but not much, colder, frostier and snowier than last winter. Cold dry spell at the start of Dec followed by a very wet and pretty mild spell end of Dec into the beginning of Jan. A very decent snow event here on 18 Jan and due to snow a few days before this has 12 consecutive days snow lying. Then a cool end of Jan and early Feb, followed by another dry cold spell to finish. A couple of notable absences this winter - 1) no really low surface cold at any point, absolute min of -9.2c isn't particularly low for here; 2) no notable Atlantic storms/gales.

Yes was surprised by heavy frost here too, -6.5c. Expect similar tonight before the cloud arrives near dawn. Just flicked through the models an can't see anything snowy (save perhaps a few flakes later this week), ECM which is the most accurate for the medium range shows a strong antiyclone setting up over us with warm, springlike days and cold, frosty nights. Lovely late winter weather IMO, and nice to get away from the rain. How long do your reckon before the drought warnings start?

Indeed, didn't get above 7.5c here on the east side. Agree a lovely day though, first hint of spring. 2.6c currently so expecting a frost tonight.

A good dispassionate overview as usual Looking forward to spring myself, though sod's law would suggest that we'll get a glut of cold northerlies just when I'm looking forward to some warm sunshine. No doubt followed by greenland high setting up shop and giving us another cool, wet summer

With our regional forum so quiet you'd never think there was a cold spell in the offing next week. Whether it's dry surface cold (GFS), a very cold easterly (UKMO), a snowy complex easterly (ECM) or a Greenland high and epic cold (ECM 0z), there's plenty to get excited about IMO. At worst a return of cold frosty nights, at best a repeat of January's lovely snow. Yey!

Cold horizontal rain this evening, not at all pleasant. ECM/UKMO charts look great for cold from the middle of next week, though it's a long way outn Ian F's comments in the mod thread on MOGREPS not being fully on board should provide an added note of caution. On the positive side the PV is finally modelled to depart Canada and move towards Scandi which gives a better prospect for proper Greenland height rises than we have seen so far this winter.

Light hail I reported this morning turned to snow when the precip intensified, had a fair covering at about 9, 9.30ish (timing made it technically a day of snow lying, reluctant as I am to count it as it was so brief). It stopped settling by about 10 but continued snowing moderately until about 12, 12.30 or so and then turned to rain.

A dusting of snow here in llandod this morning, but has already turned to hail. Temp 0.2c, so would expect it to continue as hail for a while before the rain arrives.

Anyone who tries to forecast with certainty a week or more in advance is asking for egg on their face. The same could be said of many of those who are jubilant about the cold ECM chart this morning. Our chances for cold are better than they were yesterday, but we're talk T-192 for the start of the really good charts, way beyond the reliable timeframe.

If you like brief snowfalls before it turns to rain and melts, then Wednesday is the day!

Overcast here all day with the odd sleety flake in the air. What snow cover there was this morning has all melted, but there's plenty of white on the hills, snowline is about 350m. I always quite like it when there is snow on the hills makes for a pretty picture. Max temp today of 1.8c, not exactly tropical, but not at all out of the ordinary for Feb.

Patchy dusting of snow here this morning, less than 50% cover. Looks like most precip stayed well East - snowing in London right now according to radar, surprised it's not the top news headline Temp here is 0.7c up from a min of 0.4c about an hour ago.

Temperature has been dropping steadily here, now 1.3c, but precipitation has all but disappeared. Heavy precip would be snow I think. Precip seems to be pretty static according to radar, some sweet spots in English midlands and northern home counties could have a fair bit of snow, other places a few miles down the road could have hardly any.

Finally has turned sleety here, temp at 2.0c.

It's a complex picture, different bits of the precipitation over Wales are moving in different directions, as different fronts do their thing, get turned around etc. But in general, following the NMM, NAE, precipitaation should move slightly westwards, perhaps slightly north westwards, as the night goes on. It may sink south towards the continent eventually but by that stage should more or less have died out.

Yep 3.0c here now too, bits of ice/hail mixed in, getting close, dp 1.4c, could do with a bit less humidity.

NMM my favourite model tonight, shows rain turning to snow within a couple of hours here (Brecons/heads of valleys too) and lasting for a good few hours. Then it also shows this of interest for Tuesday morning, a band of precip moving in from the NW which should be snow given the uppers and dewpoints at the time: Not mega precip but if it intensifies (and heads south a bit) then could be good for large parts of Wales (admittedly less so for the south coast of Wales, were most of the population live, but adjustments very possible/probable). Edit: Just checked NAE and GFS and they show this too - happy days!

Temp 4.0c here, down from a max of 5.2c a couple of hours ago. Dp 2.2c, still a long way to go until we're in snow territory, but it is at least falling quite rapidly at the moment, as is the rain!

Not here yet - temperature rising 4.6c now, dp 2.6c, it's going to be a long wait for snow although I expect most of us will at least see a bit eventually. Hoping people in Flintshire, Wrexham etc will post when they have sleet/snow, as then I'll know it's on the way.

Well lots of cold rain here this morning too, if it had all been snow today it would be immense... it will happen again one day though. My rain guage appears to have broken though or maybe it has blown upside down as it is reading zero, whereas the puddles would suggest there has been at least 6-8mm already. However temp reading of 4.4c seems about right, dp 2.9c, long way to go to snow.

The NMM (netweather version, different from the one posted by Brady above) continues the downgrade for tomorrow/Monday, with the depression further north (and more made of the secondary depression that is further north still), keeping snow away from all but the far NE of Wales, and then it is pretty light. Precip and snow risk charts for tomorrow midnight: The only cause for optimism is that this is a complex low / double low system and very difficult for models to get a handle on. Last minute upgrades, whilst unlikely at this range, cannot entirely be ruled out right up to T0. Further ahead the GFS 6z and 12z today both pretty good, but would like ECM to show something similar later before getting too interested.

Agree with that unfortunately; even the most favoured areas of Wales (north-east) are unlikley to get anything like the snow that most parts of Wales got in January, a few cm is the best we can hope for, and we have another 36 hours of cold rain to get through before we get that.