mikeocarroll

Lol snefug, same story here really, we had a couple of flurries this morning but it's all melted away now as the temp has reached a balmy 4.2c. Let's hope we get plenty more this winter - bring back Bing!

A light sprinkling of snowflakes on the ground here this morning - less than 50% cover though. Current temp -0.2c and rising quite rapidly (as you would expect shortly after sunrise).

0.1c here currently, under clear skies. Will warm up a bit if the tail end of any of the showers reaches here, but would probably be a few flakes of snow or sleet. Not enough prospect for me to spend the night lampost watching though. Not too enthusiastic about the next few days, the possibility of wintry showers on Wednesday night remains but uppers not predicted so low now as they were initially predicted.

The possible streamer on Monday night into Tuesday has IMO a good chance of bringing some snow showers to northern mountains and hills, and perhaps to the Cambrians. The flow seems fairly slack though so not sure how far inland those showers will penetrate. Fear is that by the time any reach here they would be reduced to just a few flakes in the air.

Starting to wish I had stuck with 4.8 instead of bottling it and going closer to average....

Certainly not any snow in my part of the world, was up over 600m today and no sign of any snow (not that I was looking for or expecting any). Did finally get my first air frost last night though, -1.5c, was a thick layer of ice on everything this morning following yesterday's heavy rain.

Yes very autumnal again this evening, sideways rain, lots of leaves and twigs and the odd branch blowing around. Better staying indoors. Come on Arsenal!

Doh!

It did get down to 0.0c at 7.53 this morning. Possibly be the brief-ist air frost in history as it warmed up 2 minutes later, but they all count!

0.1c here currently. Will it get the last .1 to get me an air frost? I don't think so it's fully light now so should warm up soon.

Quite a few trees down by the sound of things: [*]A48 St Nicholas, both ways between Duffryn Lane and Grant's Field A48 The Vale Of Glamorgan - A48 in St Nicholas closed and queueing traffic in both directions between the Duffryn Lane junction and the Grant's Field junction, because of a fallen tree. Police directing traffic. Updated 15 minutes ago[*]Traffic IncidentsA473A473 Park Street Bridgend, both ways at Glan-Y-Parc A473 Bridgend - A473 Park Street blocked in both directions near the Glan-Y-Parc junction, because of a fallen tree. Updated 19 minutes ago[*]Traffic IncidentsA476A476 Felinfoel Road Llanelli, both ways at Cross Road A476 Carmarthenshire - A476 Felinfoel Road in Llanelli blocked near the Cross Road junction, because of a fallen tree. Updated 20 minutes ago[*]Traffic IncidentsA477A477 Cleddau Bridge Pembroke Dock, both ways between Waterloo Road and Trinity Terrace A477 Pembrokeshire - A477 Cleddau Bridge closed in both directions between Pembroke Dock and Neyland, because of strong winds. Updated 19 minutes ago[*]Traffic IncidentsA4139A4139 Bush Hill Pembroke, both ways at Whitehall Avenue A4139 Pembrokeshire - A4139 Bush Hill in Pembroke blocked near the Whitehall Avenue junction, because of a fallen tree. It's been windy here all day but not exceptional, we're in a pretty sheltered location. There haven't been any power blips yet like we often get in high winds.

Yes windy this afternoon/evening, and then very wet (again) tomorrow evening That will be feeling pretty cold as well, generally horrible. May be some wintriness on the tops of the Brecons especially in the heavier downpours, there often seems to be in "channel low" type setups, even if upper temps arent that cold. GFS shows a very slight risk

OK, maybe I'm not gonna go wild - 4.8 seems frankly impossible given the forecast for the start of the month. Can I change my mind to 6.8c please?

Was 1.3C here last night, coldest night since June, but it looks like it will be a frost-free October. Looks like pretty standard zonal autumn weather to start November too. Would be nice to have a few frosts but we'll just have to be patient.

As expected very little wind here overnight, pressure dropped to 980.7 at 3am, now rising rapidly. So either low wasn't that deep or we were north of the eye here.

Yes windy out today and lots of heavy showers. There seem to have been a few fallen trees reported, for example bbc travel shows the A485 is currently closed between Llanilar and Llendrod due to a fallen tree. This isn't related to the much-hyped storm forecast for tonight, which may or may not affect parts of Wales badly depending on the final track. Pressure here is steady at the moment, but I don't think it is forecast to drop until close to midnight.

Not sure it will for Wales, looks like worst of winds will be along the south coast of England. For Wales, southern coasts and especially towards Bristol channel would be worst on current track, plus the west of Pembrokeshire as the winds veer NWerly. Assuming current track which takes over Mid Wales (strongest winds therefore 100-150miles south of that) , then I'm not expecting too high wind speeds here, but possibly some unusually low barometer readings. The lowest I've recorded in the last two years was 974.9mb on 18 April 2012 so that should be under threat.

Amber warning for Monday now covers southern half of Wales too: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=wl&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400

Good luck snefnug; never trust the council! There's been some moderately heavy rain down here but no thunder yet.

ECM also seems to support UKMO track, centre of low moves across Wales, Midlands, Humber:

Might be a possibility for some air frosts on Monday night or Tuesday night after the low clears, as pressure builds from the azores and upper temps remain lowish. Depends how much cloud is dragged in, but wouldn't be surprised to see a frost especially in the usual frost hollows. Wouldn't be surprised if min temps in rural areas are a few degrees lower than predicted by the gfs chart above.

Met office warnings issued for Monday for Wales - for wind in the south and rain in the north: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400&regionName=wl Confidence is low (it's still 3 days away and track/intensity of low is very uncertain) but potential impact would be high if most extreme scenario occurred.

I'm gonna go wild and go for 4.8c, I've got bored of going for figures close to the mean.

Does anybody know what this week's lottery numbers will be because if they do I would be really grateful if they would share?

Looks like a very wet period of weather coming up for Wales this week - annoyingly my rain gauge isn't working but I'd expect some hefty totals over the next 7-10 days. We've had quite a bit of rain here the last couple of days, nothing exceptional but a change after the last few months which have been so dry.