mikeocarroll

Also a severe flood alert for parts of Newport. High tide in Newport is 07.30am so if you live there in a vulnerable area then it may be worth being prepared tonight and getting up very early tomorrow to check the situation. I feel very fortunate to live in a location that would be more or less impossible to flood.

Gwlyb.

You call that severe... an air frost here, first in several centuries (possibly)... Siberia ain't seen nothing

5.2c please

Well it snowed for about an hour here leaving a slight covering, now it has turned back to sleety rain, despite the temperature continuing to fall (0.9c now). We're right on the snowline so when the sky clears the hills should be beautifully white. If the sky clears that is as the precipitation seems to have got stuck right over us, (if only it would turn back to snow).

Snowing here currently, very wet though, was just hail a few minutes ago. Not settling properly, but there is a slushy/icy deposit on some surfaces. Cheers Santa

Snow affecting travel on the A470 over the Brecons: A470A470 Libanus, both ways between A4215 and A4059 A470 Powys - Hazardous driving conditions on A470 between the A4215 junction in Libanus and the A4059 junction in Nant-ddu, because of snow. Approach with care. Updated 13 minutes ago Hope the weather Gods send a bit this way (and everywhere else too, 'tis the season of goodwill after all)

No snow here this morning, just a bit too warm at 3.7c currently, so icy rain and hail showers.

Yes that chart looks like it would potentially bring snow, so long as the front would get far enough north. Not convinced that it's a likely solution, but we can live in hope. I don't think it's impossible - the ECM in particular seems keen to develop a little feature along the channel which could just induce a bit of wintriness on the northern flank. Heavy showers, evaporative cooling and hefty dose of luck and there might just be a flake - as you say it only takes one to win the bet. Yes same here 969.3 currently, is a record for me.

Today's storm is pretty brutal and could do some damage in west wales, but Friday's is potentially much worse. Mean wind speeds of 60mph in exposed coastal areas, which is very strong indeed, gusts could be considerably more than that.

Yes seemed to be quite a squall in the night about 3.15ish here. Now time to batten down the hatches ahead of strong winds and heavy rain tomorrow.

Welcome to the thread! The answer is that it's very much "up in the air" at the moment, with the type of weather we have at the moment - low pressure systems developing and being pushed across or the north of the UK - it is very difficult to predict exactly when and where the wind and rain will be strongest. According to the GFS weather model, Christmas Eve is windy, perhaps gale force winds, but not really anything out of the ordinary: This chart shows the current predicted windspeeds, as you can see around 40mph in the Swansea area which I think is a gale, but which is unlikley to do much harm. The ECM model has a different track of low pressure, but I think the outcome for wind would be similar. However, with either model, if they have the track of the pressure system wrong, and it is further south than expected, then it could be a severe windstorm. That is unlikely but possible. As for snow, if the GFS model is correct, then there is a chance of some snow on Christmas morning for higher ground in Mid Wales, and it is possible that there may be some sleetiness or wet snow down in Swansea, but it's still too far away to have any confidence about this, and if the ECM model is correct then chances are even slimmer. The GFS snow risk chart for Christmas morning is below: You can view the charts yourself if you go to the Netweather homepage and click on the Chart Viewer. The pressure charts require some interpretation, which you can learn about in the learning section of the forum, but the wind speed, rainfall and snow risk charts are pretty self-explanatory.

Still about 1cm of snow lying here this morning, should be first official snow lying day of the winter for this location. Did get to about 2cm yesterday evening but is slowly but steadily melting away (current temp 1.6c) and I expect will disappear quite rapidly after sunrise. Could be some more brief snow opportunities over the next week or so, as Andy highlights via the GFS snow charts. GFS seems to be more keen than ECM though.

How deep is Monday night's low on the ECM here? I'v often seen the GFS with dartboard lows in deep FI, but the ECM with a such a low in the reliable (ish) timeframe is another matter. About 928 at the centre?

Has been snowing properly here now for about half an hour - for about half an hour prior to that it was oscillating between rain/sleet/snow. We've got a covering now on all surfaces, including roads, not much about 1cm and snowing moderately at the moment, but the main band looks like it is almost past now and then it will just be the odd shower. Temp is 1.2c and dp is -1.5c.

Sleet / wet snow here now - temp 2.8c.

Was a pretty epic 5mins of heavy hail here before turning back to moderate rain. A slight hint of ice or sleet in the rain, temp is down to 3.9c with a dp of 0.6c.

Temp has gone right up to 6.1c here now, will have to be some very heavy precip to see anything wintry, although temp should start to decrease shortly as the sun is past its peak.

Temp has fallen by a degree or so here in the last hour, just 0.5c atm with a dewpoint of -2.2c. Radar suggests perhaps a bit of snow up towards Llangurig and Newtown at the moment. And down to freezing now, despite dawn being about half an hour ago.

I think the lack of ramping is good - it shows that Wales thread posters at least are less willing than previously to be led down the garden path whenever models show a slight hint of snow 10 days down the line (and those same models being reliable for 5 days at best). I agree with Jackone, there is a possibility of a couple of cm of back edge snow on high ground in Wales on Thurs night (I'd expect a bit here) and then some light snow flurries, perhaps a dustiing for coastal areas (maybe a couple of cm for northern coasts) and a few flakes in the air and feeling cold inland on Friday morning. Looking ahead, the outlook remains far from standard zonal (and still remarkably dry), but the unfortunate fact for us coldies is that only a few specific synoptic set-ups bring lasting snow and cold to the UK, whereas a great many set-ups bring either dry or rain. On the plus side this is what keeps things interesting. If snow was guaranteed then it wouldn't be exciting. So here's to another winter of model and (hopefully) lamppost watching.

The calm reason of the Met Office... what a delightful way of saying to the daily express "nope - still swearing off with your nonsense" Haha not fair that the swear filter picks up when you have ***s in it.

5.2c please

Well there's 90 days of winter coming so they're almost right in the first part...

-6.0c here this morning. Brrrr. Still sub-zero now.

GFS ensembles this morning hint at some cold potential in early December: In fact GFS operational FI this morning looks pretty decent with heights across the western side of the pole and the core of the PV squished out towards Siberia. I'm not generally for FI straw-clutching but it's the best there is from a snow-loving perspective at the moment, no prospect of the white stuff in the next 10 days or so for us :-(