METO update siding with cold, with caveats, but siding with cold. For those who haven't seen it:
Days 6-15:
UK Outlook for Monday 30 Jan 2012 to Wednesday 8 Feb 2012:
At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.
Updated: 1225 on Wed 25 Jan 2012
Days 16-30:
UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Feb 2012 to Thursday 23 Feb 2012:
The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain.However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.
Updated: 1225 on Wed 25 Jan 2012
http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html