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pipsta

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Posts posted by pipsta

  1. This front is going to stall over EA it's got a lot of energy so will push our block out into the North Sea and will stop over the top! What we don't want to happen is for it to pass through us as we will be left with a thaw after as the warm air behind sets up shop. Hopefully after the front has emptied it's sack the block will fill its space and the cold (real cold) will re-establish its self and prolong our beloved snoo.

  2. Snowm4n it's better to keep the cold round rather than loose it and get rain. I'm sure we will all get a pasting tomorrow. The front has hit the west coast alot earlier than expected meaning it has more energy than antisipated and should get over to us no trouble may even stall over us as the block will be pushes slightly eastwards as the front moves in. Downside is if it does make it over it means the Atlantic is getting stronger vs the block. Ideal scenario is for the block to retreat for us to get the front and then reclaim its ground after to keep the cold and snow with us.

  3. Pipsta, have a look through the Technical thread the failed easterly has been on the Netweather CSI operating table.

    More intrigue on this run from GFS, that bleeding high continues to throw out teasing pulses of cold air, to use another football analogy it has the 492-528 dam Ball, but is very fussy about who gets to play with it. Fortunately for those further North on this run a more solid looking chance of some decent uppers this time round.

    May thanks lorenzo i'll go take a look see

  4. After the recent failed "beast from the east" and over almost overnight turn around from the models to the "pest from the west" why does nobody go back and look for the reason the models decided to change so quickly. All you guys talk about is whats going to happen i know its a "forecast" but surely by discussing why the models got it wrong will help us all spot us when this might happend next time, might even help reduce the pain of when it does all go wrong at the last minute.

  5. If we looked back on the models from a "what verified" pov From my own imby experience over in the east (EA) the current weather seems to have gone in two week cycles of late. Every other week there has been a two or three day cold snap proceeded by a "mild ish" week and a half. Each cold spell has gotten progressively sharper. This started on december 1st with a light dusting in Norwich. Can somebody who knows how to read the models look back over the models from the last fortnight to see if this cycle I have observed is on to something because I bet my bottom dollar we will see other cold few days hit around 28th 29th December if this continues. If you put out of your mind what the models have been showing but instead look at what has verified. I think our weather is currently in a two week cycle which is increasing by a couple of days every other week and each subsequent cold spell lasting slightly longer and harder than the last. Based on this I'm saying 28th onwards for our next shot.

  6. Hi guys, im not a regular poster on here and certainly not in the models thread so here goes with a quick question which im sure most of you can answer. Alot of you mention convection over the sea/rivers caused buy the cold uppers, will the saturation of the land be taken into consideration from the models from a PPN point of view? There alot of swollen rivers and flooded land at the moment surely this will enhance convection amounts as the cold uppers pass over our island. Do the models look for this?

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