I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert but I have been a member for well over 10 years and have seen plenty of model drama at times. The last few times I've seen output this confusing was when what I would class as special cold events was occurring. Don't panic over any perceived down grades this morning as its just the models trying to get to grips with the difficult synoptics and will play out various scenarios until they agree on a result. I would recommend sticking to the fax charts and now casting until after the weekend!.