Walsall Wood Snow

4.1c I'll go for.

Fantastic spell this was and was actually one of the first instances for me of setting off a craving for cold and snowy Winters (whereas before it was more of a just craving it at Christmas and now and again in the vain hope school would get closed). Even though it was short it was kind of enough at the time and with pretty much a repeat here exactly a year later ( 29th. I mentioned in the Christmas weather historical thread it was the 27th in 2001 but it was in fact 2 days later) I was contented with them for those Winters as they were a decent cold and snowy spell for each Winter that fell almost perfectly in the Christmas holidays. 2002 came without such charm and this set me up as the almost constantly disappointed snow fanatic I remain to this day .

These are the times I recall seeing snow of any amount on the 24th to 26th December. 2001: A few flakes fell briefly on the afternoon of the 25th, so a technical white Christmas here. Wasn't enough for a covering, even a dusting but those few flakes stuck around. (was made up for on the evening of the 27th though) 2004: There were a few flakes blowing around during the day on the 25th and then more substantial snowfall on the evening, giving a modest but complete covering. The best white Christmas I'd ever witnessed to this point. It stuck around for Boxing Day too. 2009: There was a covering of snow on the 24th which had fell on the 23rd. Unfortunately it was slowly thawing throughout the day from some misty mild gunk that had moved in. Come the big day there was nothing left save for the odd residual patch that were few and far between. So I sometimes like to think this one was a sort of white Christmas as there were a couple of tiny bits of snow in my back garden still plus there was a lot more snow around on Christmas Eve, but it's a push to call it so really. 2010: Easily the finest example I've yet witnessed. No snow falling, but a deep snow cover mostly dropped on the 22nd but with snow still there from the 18th before it, which left a nice deep lush blanket to see through the 24th, 25th and 26th. It was like something we in this country only see in the likes of Hollywood Christmas movies set in Chicago and such. What a magical Christmas for the UK that was. 2014: There was some wet snow on the evening of the 26th giving a thin slushy covering. So too late for an actual white Christmas, but still pretty close. Whats amazing though is none of these events were more than than 5 years apart. That's actually pretty good going from a UK perspective for getting snow on or very close to Christmas Day. As a side note 2017 came very close for snow on Boxing Day here. We had a mixture of rain and sleet, but not too far on the other side of Birmingham there was snow on the 26th which gave a covering there. Don't think there's much hope of seeing any amount of snow on those dates this year though, but never say never I guess.

For now I'll try to take comfort in the fact that it's very rare for a single pattern to last an whole season. February is only just under 6 weeks away though, surely things will be different by then. Hopefully in a much more cold and snowy type of way.

Just for context, in astronomical terms Winter has only just started meaning we've got an whole 3 months until it ends. Who knows what the weather will bring in that time.

It shouldn't be overlooked that the post 2013 era has already produced at least one big cold spell, just last year (calendar wise) so it's not really as if we've gone without one for too long by UK standards. Still we'll be coming up to the 2 year period in just over a couple of months time. Hopefully our luck will change before then and we won't come to the point where it'll have to be at least getting towards 3 years. Though we've gone way longer before, I just hope we don't get to that point.

Astronomical Spring doesn't start for over 3 months yet and severe cold and snow has even occurred post then (such as 2013). There's loads of time left for a cracking snow event or more before it becomes impossible again until next Autumn. Stay positive folks .

All talk of the Hadley cell pushing north aside, hasn't December for the most part always been far more Autumnal than Wintry in a UK context anyway. And as for Winters becoming more restricted to January and February, I thought this realistically has always been the case, though to be honest I've often felt it is these two months in recent years that have delivered less anyway rather than December which if anything has been maybe slightly more snowy than either it seems to me, certainly February anyway, though I suppose we've had a couple of March's to make up for it. As for 2010 that was a fairly rare type of December in any era not just now. We don't even have to go back as far as then though for a more likely cold type of December. 2017 was fantastic here in the Midlands, Wales and Scotland too. Even parts of the south east had some snow and it wasn't anywhere near as cold as 2010. Shame it wasn't far more nationwide otherwise it would have been more fondly remembered, but still a good range of UK regions had snow. I don't think anywhere had a white Christmas, though close with snow on Boxing Day in parts of Scotland and the Midlands. This December isn't anywhere near as good so far but with still more than half the month to go, nobody can rule out somewhere in the country (not just high ground) getting a good snow event before the month is out.

December 2017 was actually quite a good one in this part of the country, despite not been all that cold (CET 4.8c) I saw more snow that December than I do most. In fact it was 2 years ago exactly today we had a really good dumping round here which stuck around for about 3 days I think. Also on Boxing Day there was snow the other side of Birmingham (just sleet here that time unfortunately) which I had the good fortune to see on the evening of the 28th when it was still lying. Although not as much as the event on the 10th it was still a full covering which looked really nice and festive with all the Christmas lights still up and such. Easily the second best December of the 2010's after 2010 itself obviously. Still time for December 2019 to challenge it yet though. I almost forgot there was also a cold spell that began on Boxing Day 2014. It snowed here but was very wet and left only a thin slushy covering. There was a brief anticyclonic period immediately following accompanied with frost but this was brief. Apart from that can't think of much else at or near to the festive period, but as you say cold spells aren't overly common at that time of year in this country anyway so having 3 cold spells around then in a decade is probably around average. Not to mention I think 2010 raised our expectations a bit in terms of the perfect but rare type of sypnotics for a December cold spell. I'd take how it was round here December 2017 every year though if it was on offer. Though even better would be the snow falling on Christmas Eve or Day rather than the 10th. Then it would be perfect.

Leading on to a bitterly cold and snowy February I'm sure . Too be fair though we're talking too far in the future to get too despondent. Even GP has had to change his opinions accordingly in the past from time to time. So no real need to be write the first two thirds of Winter off just yet.

If it's any consolation though, Winters 1776/77 and 1783/84 were pretty cold with Jan and Feb 1777 having a CET of 1.9c and 2.3c respectfully . And Dec 1783 was 2.7c along with Jan and Feb 1784 at -0.6c and 1.4c respectfully. Dec 1927 was cold at 2.1c (though Jan and Feb 1928 weren't). And Jan 1945 was a very cold 0.4c.

I know, but at least 2005 was followed by a coldish Winter I think, though it wasn't very snowy round here at least. Good job Winter conditions aren't determined by the November CET figures.

At 6.2c, November 2019 shares the same mean CET with November's: 1734 1761 1776 1783 1927 1930 1944 1989 1998 2005 2013

3.6c for me please.

At 10.0c, October 2019 shares the same mean CET with October's: 1659 1660 1663 1668 1669 1670 1702 1709 1722 1753 Obviously pre 1699 as well as a lot of pre 1723 can't be relied on for accuracy been as many of those months were rounded to the nearest .0 or .5

An early guess for me, but I'll go for 5.8c please.

On the other hand November 1985 was very cold with some early snow I believe, which led on to a pretty mild December only to get cold again at the end and eventually led to the coldest February since 1947. Just saying. Not that I know much about why mind.

I assume you meant the 21st?

Winter 2001/02 has always stood out for me in this regard. It snowed here on the evening of the 29th December giving a fairly good covering and it stuck around right up till the 2nd January I believe, and although there was slight thawing during the daytimes due to the time of year it was minimal at best and the following nights brought freezing fog and hoar frost causing the canal round here to freeze solid enough to walk on. Very similar to the event the year before in late December 2000, although slightly less snow in 2001 and was a couple of days later than that year. Though I think it's fair to say Winter 2000/01 was on average a colder Winter than 2001/02 which was quite mild overall with the exception of around the festive period. I've also learned since that that snowy spell we had in late Dec 01 was actually fairly localised unlike the late Dec 00 event which effected much more of the country. What was interesting about this event in 01 also was the fact it actually briefly snowed on Christmas Day giving my first example of anything that could be termed a white Christmas by any standard. Just a few grains really but it remained cold enough then for these to remain unthawed up to the evening of the 29th when we got the proper dumping. Also of course it still remains to date the only time I recall seeing snow on the ground on New Years Eve and Day.

Glad there's a little more positivity coming back into this thread tonight. With regards to my post earlier, it was just a little tongue in cheek really as I just get a little fed up sometimes of hearing too much pessimism, especially this early on. I really like looking forward to Winter in Autumn and even if it doesn't deliver in the end it's easier if the disappointment is delayed until well into Winter rather than thinking our hopes are already dashed long before it's even started. That's the problem though these days with the internet and long range forecasts available to us all long in advance. It just kills off any hope and wonder (unless it's telling us what we want to hear, not that it even always works out then, such as last year) and at this time of year I like to dream that the potential is there even if not finally realised in the end. It's a bit like following your favourite football team and been constantly told that they're going to get thrashed before every match. Just better to see how the game plays out first before making sweeping judgements. Depends who they're up against I suppose as well as their recent performance. Maybe not the best analogy I know but just an example. Anyway nice to finally see a bit more balance back in here as well as some caution given by some of the more experienced members in regards to putting too much faith into the long range models whatever they might show for now.

I'll put it like this. If even the seasonal models are correct (which they may not be) will it even matter if say next Winter is the coldest Winter in 1000 years. Not saying for a moment it will be, but if such circumstances did actually occur in 14 to 16 months time who would care that the Winter to come wasn't cold at all. In fact even if it was very cold and snowy and the following Winter wasn't whatsoever come the time we still wouldn't be satisfied despite that. I sometimes think it's not worth caring too much about been as one Winter could be very different to the next anyway. Even if we had a decade worth of very cold and snowy Winters in solid succession we know full well with our position and tiny speck of land on the globe we'd have to expect a mild and almost snowless Winter sooner rather than later at some point anyway. The only way we could avoid that is the coming of the next ice age which would either bring mass migration or mass extinction anyway. So in other words either except our climate for what it is, a cool at best maritime climate with the Atlantic been the dominant factor as it has been since the last ice age ended with at best temporary deviations from that climatic norm such as the MWP or the LIA or move to somewhere more conducive to your climatic preference if you can. In the mean time we're just going to have to put up with crap Winters and crap Summers popping up quite regularly I'm afraid. We just happen to live on the wrong spot of the planet at the wrong time to hope for more than the occasional classic major seasonal variability unfortunately.

The thing I don't look forward to about Winter is more the run up to it, such as now when on this forum you already have some members on here declaring it's over long before it's even begun. I get that it's only their personal opinion and that they could actually end up being right, but come on it's only been October for a week with the bulk of the month and then the whole of November to get through before even meteorological Winter begins, never mind astronomical Winter. It could be argued that some may have vague ideas on how it might start but who's willing to stake claim on how it will end. After all I don't think anybody could confidently predict what we should expect weather wise in late January, February or even the start of March for example. There's a tendency I think to forget also that with the exception of the very rare more famous Winters like your 1963's or 1979's that most Winters that we look back on as cold snowy ones were more often than not only a week or two affairs of classic Winter fayre with the rest of the season been much less memorable and sometimes even consisting of periods where the opposite type of weather (quite mild) had its time also. So been as the weather can often change at the drop of a hat and that we're talking of a 3 to nearly 4 month period that doesn't even begin for nearly another 2 months and could be argued doesn't end until closer to 6 months that there's no reason really to feel despondent about our prospects for seeing whatever we'd like at this stage. And if we don't better to save our disappointment until the time rather than declaring it over long before it's even begun.

We actually had a bit of snowfall here in October last year. Didn't settle though and was quite brief from what I remember. Nothing after that until a couple of times in January, with the only settling snow then occurring on the afternoon/evening of the 22nd, but was only a thin covering and was all but gone on the 24th. I remember the dates as we moved house on the 23rd, on which the snow stuck around for the day. So it was nice to have a bit of snow cover around for the transition from the old house to the new, even if there wasn't loads of it. We missed out on the heavy snows which briefly affected the south of the country just over a week later though unfortunately. Hope we get something good this coming Winter though but as always only time will tell.

At 14.3c, September 2019 shares the same mean CET with September's: 1775 1828 1868 1956 1973 2003

I'll go for 9.9c please