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Walsall Wood Snow

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    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Except that in September, the first three weeks are on the summer side of the equinox, whilst in March they are on the winter side -- March sees fewer hours of sunlight and at a lower angle.

    The sun strength in March would correspond to the same strength it is from around 13th September to 13th October I'd imagine just the other way around.

    In September it would be the same but heading the other way from around 14th March to  12th April.

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, reef said:

    It seems to be a challenge just to record an air frost this winter, never mind snow. We've had 6 so far in the winter quarter and none this month. They weren't exactly hard frosts either:

    11th Dec: -0.3C
    17th Dec: -0.1C
    5th Jan: -0.8C
    6th Jan: -2.5C
    18th Jan: -0.6C
    21st Jan: -1.4C

    We actually managed -1.1C on 2nd May last year (after 14 air frosts in April), so to only go below -1C twice so far in the actual winter is very poor.

    Did it ever go below that 27th/28th Nov I wonder?

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

    As night follows day, spring will follow winter but as the weather never progressed beyond November we could miss a whole season!

    This Winter was pretty much just the last weekend of November (it's been the only stage thus far we've had a decent covering of snow). There was a slight dusting on the 2nd Dec as well and at that stage I thought we were having a pretty good start to Winter especially as at the time there was fairly high confidence of further cold down the line.

    Oh well at least we had that, which to be fair was the first decent November snowfall here since 2010. 

    The likes of 2013/14 to 2016/17 as well as 2018/19 and 2019/20 never gave such consolation.

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

    When was the last time it flipped then?

    After having a bit of a quick look it seems it went positive around 1997 and going by previous trends it could go negative again any time from 2027 to 2037, or even later for all I know. It was negative from say 1967 to 1997 and positive before that from say 1927 to 1967. So basically it might go negative again in anything from 5 to 20 years I guess?

    • Like 1

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Fingers crossed for a 3 month Arctic freeze starting in November

    TBH I think we might waiting for the AMO to flip before we can dream of such long freezes in Winter.

    The more I read about the AMO the more convinced I am that it's a big player Kevin .

     

    I saw you bring this up a few days ago. When can we expect that to happen then, or is it anyone's guess?

    • Like 1

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, sundog said:

    I think we can  safely say at this stage that last winter was NOT a teaser winter.  Last winter was our bloody winter i think lol.

    I was also hoping that last winter was a teaser Winter. Then again I thought at the time Winter 17/18 was going to be a teaser Winter only for it to be followed by two pretty rubbish ones. 

    So I think I've learned one colder and snowier winter doesn't mean a new trend. 

    I think it goes back to Winter 08/09 which really was a teaser Winter as it was followed by two even colder and more snowy winters (3 if you count 12/13 despite there being one milder winter in between) but it seems that any single colder winter that comes up could just as easily, or even more likely be just a one off. 

    Then again we had 4 mild winters between 12/13 and 17/18 and 2 between 17/18 and 20/21 so maybe we'll only have this one between 20/21 and 22/23 . We can but hope I suppose.

    • Like 1

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Does anybody think the recent volcanic eruption in Tonga might have an effect on the atmosphere going forward?

    It's certainly something that no weather model would have foreseen or accounted for. 

    I'm just wondering going forward it might shake things up a bit. Not sure if it will have any effect on the rest of our winter weather though but maybe it'll cause something to happen that wouldn't have happened if it were not for it?

    Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Are people here seriously suggesting that any hope of a decent spell of winter weather isn't possible for the next couple of months? 

    Surely there's got to be a chance for January to become colder and and more snowy than the mood in here anticipates at present. 

    As for February, it's over a month away so who really knows. We'd have to know how January turned out first at least, which we don't yet.

    Theres been too much writing off of the next two months based on one failed cold spell. 

    All this negativity will soon dissipate once the next modelled cold spell pops up, which it no doubt will sooner or later, whether it transpires to a real life cold spell or not.

     

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