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snowblind

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    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

     TEITS I remember sometime in 2000s in our region the forecast was for 15cms of snow. Greater Anglia cancelled all their trains and the BBC had reporters outside all across the region reporting on the snow except there wasn't any and all the reporters were just standing in the rain. I think they may have found half a cm of slush in Norfolk somewhere but that was it.

    There was also an occasion in the mid 90s where the forecast was for 15cms of snow to fall pushing up from the south. I remember listening to the local BBC forecaster on the radio every hour who kept insisting the snow was coming despite nothing falling from the sky. All morning this happened until eventually early afternoon they said rest of the day mainly dry just bits and pieces of rain or drizzle. Didn't even mention the snow they forecast that didn't materialise. Almost as if they never forecast it in the first place.

    • Like 2

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

     throwoff yes despite all the promising background signals, teleconnections, battered vortex, tealeaves, seaweed, uncle Tom Cobley 'n all. Something somewhere has overridden all that, confounded all the predictions and delivered us another rubbish 'winter'. Probably a butterfly farting in the Amazon rainforest or something.

    So the much predicted weather change is coming. For us just looks like going from mild and windy to average and wet. Still at least we will lose the hideous warm nights.

    Sorry for the rant but I've picked up that hideous virus that's been doing the rounds and am currently confined to bed. Not covid I feel much worse than when I did have covid. The models and the actual weather are doing nothing to aid my recovery.

    • Like 7

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

     ChillyJuju Don't swap the duvet anymore 4 tog all year round for us. Was just too hot under a 10 tog. Always have the window open as well. Last time we had a thicker duvet on was 2021 but that was because the heating was busted. Before that was during the 2018 BFTE. Maybe it's just a getting older thing. Used to swap every Autumn and back in the late spring but find in just too warm at night now.

    • Like 1

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ok, so I was pretty bored yesterday and I was thinking about how we seem to be having much warmer nights in winter than we used to so thought I'd do a bit of research.

    I used this excellent site which has records for Epping, it's about 30 miles from here closer to London but gives a good idea of the weather in Essex. It has daily records going back to 1979 but stopped adding data in 2013. After this I used my own, less accurate and comprehensive, records.

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Epping Weather Site

    WWW.SWANSTONWEATHER.CO.UK
    Weather Station information and weather records for Epping, Essex, UK, daily weather records from January 1979, links to other weather sites, weather diary., epping photograph, pictures of...

    What I thought I'd do, in a not very scientific way, is check the first month in the year when the minimum temperature failed to fall below 10. Don't know why I picked 10 just sounded like a pretty mild night time minimum for winter.

    So between 1980 and 1999 this occurred in

    April 8 times

    May 5 times

    March 4 times

    January twice

    February once

    But between 1990 and 2019 it occurred in

    April twice

    May twice

    March twice

    January 10 times

    February 4 times

    What immediately stands out is the January figure. The most common month for a minimum temperature of 10 degrees or above to occur has switched from April to January. 

    Since 2020 this has already occurred in January twice. It won't happen this year but it was close, I recorded a minimum of 9 on the 23rd Jan.

    Not sure what this proves except I need a more interesting job or perhaps that more mild air is making it to our shores in winter. I found it quite interesting though.

    • Like 5

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

      @Sparky68 yes very mild here as well 8.7 currently but was 10.2 at 3 o'clock this morning! 

    Still people in the model thread hanging their hats on all the things that have been very poor indicators of the actual weather this winter, teleconnections, the MJO, EC46, the long range met office outlook etc. Apparently they all indicate a wintry second half of February. I remain completely sceptical. But time will tell.

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    My verdict on the models currently can be summed up in one word - uninspiring.

    Some of the GFS ensembles look quite interesting after about 10 days but when don't they?

    Looking at the means seems to indicate a slow drift down to average temperatures by the second week of February. Which is something I guess. Meanwhile we are stuck in the weather equivalent of purgatory. Mildish, cloudy nothingness 😴

    Currently 10.2 degrees and, you guessed it, cloudy.

    • Like 1
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