snowblind
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Posts posted by snowblind
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4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
You must be unlucky, someone in the model thread mentioned snow in col
I think the radar was showing something but not sure anything was making it to the ground.
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11 minutes ago, MAF said:
Bitterly cold this morning in SE London and even Westminster. And yet it just about sums this winter period up that no matter how cold it was overnight, there is hardly a frost to be seen here. Can't even get a cold northerly blast to give us something that 'looks' like winter, Doh!
As mentioned earlier this morning, the air is too dry for frost. Even my breath is not showing as i walked along to work this morning. Still, i made up for that by having a fag and blowing the smoke out
I think it's because the air is so dry at the moment so little visible frost even when well below freezing.
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12 minutes ago, Kentspur said:
Anyone got any flakes falling shame I'm not in Gravesend atm in London?
I am under those pink blobs to the west of Colchester but nothing is falling from the sky.
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A bit too much cloud around for a really cold night here. Only down to -3.1 in the end.
Obviously the cloud isn't thick enough to produce any snow just thick enough to stop the temperature falling too far.
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26 minutes ago, throwoff said:
It’s a much better picture this evening. Wait for the 00z
The ECM looks similar to GFS and GEM I think. Pivoting the system up across Kent then pulling something across East Anglia as it moves away.
Not sure it will amount to much but you never know. I think we need one of those the weather ignores the models and does it's own thing situation to help us out.
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Briefly made it up to 1.5 this afternoon. Already down to -1.3.
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2 minutes ago, throwoff said:
The 12z GFS is a huge upgrade for Kent and the south over the 06, we had no chance this morning and suddenly it’s back in play
I'm looking on wetterzentral and it doesn't look as good as the charts posted above and it doesn't show any accumulation either. These look like the best 2 frames 3 hours apart.
But it's a start. Let's see if ECM can improve on it.
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GEM seems to be the keenest on something across our region on Wednesday. Again pivoting the system into Kent and dragging something in across East Anglia.
The others are pretty much the same as previous runs, GFS just clipping into Kent. Icon and UKMO, a bit further south.
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Temperature bang on freezing after a low of -1.9. Lovely and sunny
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Just to keep a bit of interest going the GEM pivots Wednesday's low up across Kent.
And ECM moves if further north running along southern coastal counties.
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13 minutes ago, festivalking said:
GFS 18z makes landfall in the far south west on Wednesday. A small shift north.
Looks pretty similar to the previous run to me.
Almost exactly and rather implausible hugging the exact contours of the south coast all the way along and not really making landfall.
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Just got a notification from my weather station that the temperature is below 3 degrees. It's starting everyone.
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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:
I made it 18 out of 51 ensemble members on the ECM 12Z that would likely lead to a covering of snow for the southern most counties (I didn't include the op or control as they generally returned less than 1cm). That's the most members for a couple of days. And yes, as you mention, there's the outside chance of a significant fall.
Would be interesting to know how many were showing the snow heading into France when the ops were keen on disruptive snow getting up as far as the midlands.
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Still 4 degrees here. When's this cold air supposed to arrive?
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The further further outlook hasn't changed for days but means nothing really it can change to a milder outlook in the blink of an eye.
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Ok getting desperate now but GEM has something getting pulled into Kent and East Anglia north of the main system on Wednesday. No accumulation of snow shown so probably nothing to get excited about.
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24 minutes ago, Gowon said:
Boring cold week for us, then.
Onto the next chase.
Yeah, looking like February after reading the met office latest long range outlook.
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40 minutes ago, Gowon said:
ICON is further south with the low..
GFS as well. Think it's a bust now.
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Not a great update.
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21 minutes ago, Kentspur said:
Happened prior to "global boiling" in 91 across the pond...
Just watched Marco.Petagna on Skynews he said some models still showing it over southern regions but most likely will stay over the continent in France etc so still a small chance
A few days ago the most unlikely scenario was that is was going to miss us and head into France. How things change. Only the GFS currently really interested in sending it north enough to affect our region.
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Met office mention the possibility of light snow in the south on Wednesday. See if that changes later on.
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10 minutes ago, SnowBorder said:
Couple of this mornings Models showing there ‘might’ be snow on Wednesday. Fingers crossed.
The ICON and GFS show the best chance with the snow running along southern coastal counties then pivoting a bit in the east and pushing up across Essex.
GEM and ECM take it further south just clipping up into Kent. The UKMO isn't interested keeping it across northern France.
Still not resolved, we live in hope.
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38 minutes ago, snowblind said:
The trend has been to move the snow risk north today. See if continues tomorrow or moves back south.
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SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by snowblind
GEM and JMA just about manage it. The others are doing their improbable following the contours of the coastline act. A very very slim chance this will amount to anything for anywhere in our region now.