Man With Beard

Sounds like the NE has really missed out. Complete contrast here, we've reached 22C on most days and even 24/25C on some. I haven't been monitoring my local CET too closely but I would have thought it was between 16-17C for the month - so a really good start to the month on the south coast (Though pouring with rain right now ) Roger, I agree, looking good for your estimate of 16C at the moment, perhaps a smidge lower?

It's not quite ready to call a heatwave yet, in spite of these blistering runs from ECM/GFS tonight, but I'm very, very optimistic, because I'm sensing the models are in a cycle where they are over-estimating the Atlantic, not under-estimating. Consider these: Which actually turned out as And Which now looks like So I'm thinking this Could end up more like this In fact, I'm beginning to expect it to turn out that way. But as only 8 out of 22 GEFS members currently have a hot and sunny scenario at this stage, still not ready to call it.

No the trend is absolutely towards fine, settled weather from Saturday onwards, too soon to call it "nailed" but it's going that way, just look at the GEFS members between T200 & T300 ( sorry can't post at the moment). BBC output - IMO - is often one step behind rather than ahead... but that's for another thread of course;)

Ditto to all the above - the models are snatching out a nice two/three day drier spell next weekend, when a few days ago it didn't seem likely. Once again, the models have improved for us between T240 and T168. A good trend to have. Not going to be a heatwave though - maxes around 16C-21C probably. Decent enough for a barbie if you can keep out of the wind! And this is a very nice mean chart at T192. At least a couple of good days to follow if this verifies

A few days ago I was thinking the June CET might end up low 14s but looking at forecast temps for the Midlands next week, they aren't as bad as some models might look at a first glance. CET unlikely to be below 15C by 20th in my opinion - so any punts between 14.5C and even 16C could consider themselves to have a chance at this stage - all IMO of course!!

Ensemble agreement at T240 - a good thing for confidence: The vast majority of GEFS members have a similar shape at the same timeframe - though not the op. So possibility of an "OK" weekend for 18/19 June - may be a weak front in there but mostly dry and of course warm, being mid-June

That's two runs in a row from ECM that move the low pressure away from us by the end of next week. Perhaps not such a long washout after all? Rather different to the GFS, though: Between T200 ans about T250, GEFS members are rather split between these two options - some keep low pressures coming in from the Atlantic, others build heights to our west. At least there are some lights at the end of the tunnel - though they may not yet be daylight.

Hmmm... http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 20 ensemble members + control run + op run, and not one settled picture between them at T240. Best not plan any BBQs for the weekend 18/19 June just yet. CET for June likely to plummet next week, and little sign of an improvement beyond that. The best hope is a ridge building to our west, which would be good for western areas but still not that great for eastern ones.

Yes not a great summery pattern after this weekend - small chance of a ridge breaking through by the end of next week but even the great GFS isn't keen so likely that there would be a few more changeable/unsettled days after that too.

What's really odd is the GFS/ECM ensembles are equally at odds: The latest GFS continues to give good weather throughout next weekend: though interestingly it managed to import some colder air from the NE, so back to the low 20s at best:

GFS has done well (it would seem!) with events for the end of next week - at T144, the trough in the Atlantic is as far away as ever. Remember, just three days ago some other models had the Atlantic trough on top of us at this time!

ECM fairly inline with its own ensembles and its 00Z run. The Atlantic trough is held up a little by another low out of the Canada that, in merging with it, holds it back:

The GFS extends the warmth even further now, into the weekend of 11/12 June. The trend seems to be to weaken the trough as it comes up against the mini-block over the UK, and even split it slightly - it has been showing signs of doing so for about 36 hours. I mentioned earlier this week about this situation perhaps being a test case for the summer - I accept that may be overstating things somewhat, but it is extremely good news to see the models possibly overplaying the Atlantic in the mid-term rather than the other way (if you like hot/sunny weather). Still 48 hours or so for the changes to be confirmed, but I'm increasingly confident that any breakdown around the 10th June will be the inconclusive, thundery type, rather than a full transition back to Atlantic frontal dominance, and that any genuine breakdown may not reach us until at least the 12th/13th.

A small move from ECM towards GFS this morning as we head towards next weekend. Encouraging, though the dangers of relying on one run of course A very warm next week looks banked now

Very nice 06Z from GFS. A reasonable mean too: The outside horse, but never discount the GFS!!

Yes really quite substantial differences between GFS and ECM means, which mean confidence cannot be too high. I think it can be agreed that Monday to Thursday next week will be settled and increasingly warm: By Saturday, the ECM is fairly autumnal, whilst the GFS is more of a NW/SE split: It must be said there are still a number of GEFS members that keep the heat into the weekend, including this little beauty:

Oh dear, I was going to alter my June CET punt last night but forgot, and now I really wish I had. A definite move towards trough domination this morning. By D8 (yesterday's D9), heights just about holding on, but by D9 the trough has broken through Whereas yesterday's 06Z ens only had a few with a UK trough at this timeframe, today 16 out of 21 see the UK under some sort of trough influence. Still some way off though, but mid-June isn't particular promising at the moment..

Indeed Frosty, if the ECM holds back the Atlantic for one more day (until beyond D10) it may even be the first shot of the year at the magical 90F mark - a feat achieved on a couple of GEFS members tonight. Most output, however, seems keen to bring the Atlantic in quickly between D9 and D11. Too far out to call yet but, as I said last night, what happens in the models over the next couple of days may give us some clues for the coming summer - which has the upper hand, the Atlantic jet or Azores ridging?

An interesting turn-up in the GEFS 06Z. The mean is fairly reflective: By D9, the trough is now showing as another staller, allowing warm/hot weather to become established from the south. 15 out of 21 members are variants on this theme. The trough does make some headway on the mean by D11, but again, 15 members still do not have a trough over the UK by this time and the flatter pattern on the mean chart simply reflects the multitude of options, including troughing splitting and going south. I'm really scratching my head over my June CET punt now, hopefully the 12Zs will be more conclusive!

This could be a telling 10 day period. Of course the models seem confident in bringing in an Atlantic trough eventually. Will it be one of those situations where the Azores High throws up a ridge nearer the reliable, like December 2015? Or, on the other hand, will we get into a pattern where weak euro heights in FI are shifted East nearer the time? It seems we are either on the cusp of a good June or a poor June - the pattern up to T192 allows for both, what with the angle of the flow strongly from the SW with potentially a big warm/cool divide close by. My eggs are a little in the more unsettled bag I'm afraid, like you BA.

15.3 sounds good. Clearly well above average in the first week. Possible westerly incursions by mid-month ... though as a high pressure dominated scenario is now pretty well established, perhaps it will take a little longer to break down?

Anyone else thinking we might as well suspend this thread for a day or two? Or rename it the "Model Confusion Discussion"? Such is my level of confidence in the model output this morning. The lack of Atlantic activity together with weaknesses in Euro heights results in a cocktail of small, unstructured and unguided disturbances floating around Western Europe by the end of the week. Placement differences of just a couple of hundred miles will mean vastly different localised ground-level conditions. Taking the UKMO/GFS/EURO for Sunday morning: This, the UKMO, is probably the simplest, and that's not very simple. Probably an easterly for the south (which might be very good for S/W coasts and Wales) and variable winds further north. Possibilities of fronts both to the south and north, but could also stay dry. Warm continental air knocking on the door of the south. Not really sure what comes next - probably high pressure building in from the west but there could also be various splits/convergences of troughs, so low confidence On to the GFS, and the problems really set in. On the one hand, heights are building to the north and seem to be heading west. There's the tiniest hint that heights are also trying to build mid-Atlantic, which may cut-off the low next to Iberia completely and lead to a NEly shortly after. Heights are building north from Italy and might combine with heights north of Scotland or from Russia, depending on how the disturbances over S England and Norway develop - disturbances so small that anything could happen really (this is born out in GEFS ensembles which by T216 have heights all over the place). The likeliest scenario from this chart is that two areas of heights with establish, one north and one south of the UK, with a trough sandwich through the middle and the UK eventually affected by it - so an unstable Bank Holiday Monday, though still with some lucky places seeing sunshine and low 20s, maybe even mid 20s Finally the ECM at T144 - this is more of an abstract work of art than model output, so many curves and kinks and highs and lows ... so I'm not even going to start trying to assess where it would go next as I haven't got a clue. And be honest - neither have you.

The Bank Holiday conundrum goes on. The models have done very well in pinpointing the upper trough to our west (increasingly to our SW). But how close will it get? Touch and go, still. On the one hand, we have charts like this - tasty! and a few like this - dodgy! This will go on a while, I imagine

So in summary, a similar pattern emerging to the warm spell of earlier in this month ... a real knife-edge between warmish rain and a heatwave ... the heatwave was just about the winner last time, but no guarantee that will happen this time, that trough is very close... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

I started looking at the potential for Bank Holiday warmth a few days ago, here's where we are up to: Agreement on an Atlantic low to the west of Ireland stick fairly solid - if anything, the low has moved south in the last couple of days, which gives even more potential for continental air. ECM/GFS now in agreement on positioning. Also agreement at T240/T252 as far as could be expected - the influence of the low lessening even more, so perhaps even greater chances of warm weather moving up from the south as the weekend progresses. Clearly, though, the low is not far enough away to be confident of a dry weekend. Five or six members look like this: though even this member sees the low move away quickly: So currently about 60/40 split in favour of a warm and mostly sunny (or thundery) bank holiday, with the ratio less favorable the further west you are.