Man With Beard

That is true, although sometimes the Op run can act as a 'leader' of the pack and a few cold/mild solutions end up being right with the rest being wrong. I think the lack of agreement in the ensembles merely indicates the volatility of the situation, as indeed it still does - a few 06Z ensembles still going for something colder late next week, a sign that the Atlantic isn't going to win this one without a fight.

Hi all, I watch these models and forums on and off and this season's events have drawn me right in, brilliant model watching! Nothing quite like a battle between the Arctic and our normal weather and this is a classic! On topic: I think there's more mileage left in this weekend's events that some seem to think. Similar previous events have taught me two things. First, even when dryish conditions are forecast, localised snow events always seem to crop up somewhere at T24-T48. Second, when a breakdown low does not come predominantly from the south, the low often splits or stalls at the last minute - positioning can often alter 500 miles even from T72 charts. So although the models may have got it right, there are enough precedents for the UK to end up in the freezer at T120 / T144 based on what they currently show. I wouldn't call it till at least T72 personally.