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Man With Beard

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Everything posted by Man With Beard

  1. Man With Beard
    One model continuing to go for substantial heavy snow in the east of the region is the NMM. These are their snow accumulation charts. Compare now: With tomorrow 10am
  2. Man With Beard
    Snow getting heavier all the time and sky looking darker. Must be getting on for an inch on surfaces (apart from roads which are still clear, but if this keeps up I would expect them to go white before too long). Can't believe there's no amber warning, looking at the radar this could go on a while.
  3. Man With Beard
    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Latest NAE a big upgrade for South Hants and IOW - 14mm (ie 10-15cm snow) for Isle of Wight by tomorrow morning
  4. Man With Beard
    Still snowing, not all light either, if this keeps on all day we'll easily get above 5cms on surfaces prone to settling. Still expecting a heavier period this afternoon.
  5. Man With Beard
    Continues to snow lightly, probably 1cm now but still not sticking to the roads
  6. Man With Beard
    Snow getting a little heavier and starting to win the battle with the road outside
  7. Man With Beard
    Like a massive attack of dandruff here in Portsmouth. A nice covering on cars, roofs and grass but it will need something heavier to settle on roads. Checking all the models this morning, I'm still expecting a heavier batch this afternoon. Check out the NNM precip totals on Meteociel, there will be a massive event here this evening if they are right!
  8. Man With Beard
    I wonder if the IOW might be upgraded to an Amber warning soon? Even the NAE goes for 10mm of snow by Shanklin over the next 36 hours. And the whole lot is still perilously close to the south coast, NAE being consistent in keeping the main batch 10-20 miles off shore though. Still, it got the rain in Devon over 40 miles wrong today!
  9. Man With Beard
    Out of the six charts I've seen, this is what I see for Dorset/Hants coastline for tomorrow (sorry about Cornwall/Devon, just too much info to get my head round!). Just highlights how hard a forecast it is to make: NAE: Occasional light snow UKMO: Light to moderate snow GFS: Light to moderate snow HIRLAM: Heavy snow around middle of the day WRF: Light snow by midday, becoming moderate by evening ECM: Light to moderate snow, becoming heavy by evening Take your pick! Or ditch them and watch the radar / look out of the window tomorrow
  10. Man With Beard
    I would say there's quite a difference in intensity though - I would have thought GFS and UKMO signify far higher snow totals on the coast.
  11. Man With Beard
    Been studying NAE's forecasts of today's rain/snow event in Devon. At 24, 18 and 12 hours out, they had the rain either over south or mid Devon. Looking at the radar right now, the heaviest precipitation is over North Devon - between 40 and 70 miles north. So the NAE can be that wrong even at incredibly short range. (...Am I taking this a bit too far? )
  12. Man With Beard
    Heavier snow back into the south on GFS 06Z
  13. Man With Beard
    Great post by Ian Ferguson on MOD just now urging caution with any conclusions snowy or non-snowy (sorry can't copy and paste on my phone). This scenario has very little history in model output within T24 - just think of the variables, the front has not even developed yet, extreme cold uppers, genuine low pressure. Unless the models push the whole thing 50 miles south, this will be a radar watching exercise for anywhere within 30 miles of the south coast. Taking just the NAE, nothing will happen. But taking all model output, you could guess at 5mm precip near the coast (maybe 10mm on S. Devon, IOW or Sussex coast), up to 2mm slighty inland (maybe Salisbury, Winchester, Petersfield, etc), other than that, prayer is needed! But this is just model output - all subject to change for better or worse.
  14. Man With Beard
    ECM latest precip totals on south coast back up to 18mm+ for Monday/Tuesday www.yr.no/sted/Storbritannia/England/Portsmouth/langtidsvarsel.html No experience with how accurate they are but it's the ECM apparently so let's see.
  15. Man With Beard
    GFS T42...The heavy stuff still mighty, mighty close
  16. Man With Beard
    Precipitation charts come out first
  17. Man With Beard
    NAE 18Z still keeps precipitation mainly in the channel. Bit closer though. A little more for SW.
  18. Man With Beard
    Latest ECM still has 6-12mm precipitation for Pompey on Monday/Tuesday ... by the way, replace the word Portsmouth with your town for your area www.yr.no/sted/Storbritannia/England/Portsmouth/langtidsvarsel.html
  19. Man With Beard
    Virtually the whole country under -12C uppers - a collector's item
  20. Man With Beard
    If you study the charts for T36 and T42, though, the heavier snow is clearly heading north; you would expect snow over much of the south at T54
  21. Man With Beard
    I'm going to stick up for Roger a little bit here. Of course we are used to last minute downgrades in the UK but if we look at what the models are actually saying right now (and this is T48, of course, not T144), 20mm precipitation plus somewhere close to the south coast does not seem out of the question (and Roger quite rightly said "could" in his post). Yes, these precipitation charts are often wrong but I recall a situation in January where 10mm was forecast for me by NAE at T12 but we ended up with far more than that and local flooding - so totals can go up as well as down. Regarding warm ground temperatures, I remember early April 1989 I think it was, there were first 3 days of 18C+ in bright sunshine, four days later and there was 3 inches of snow on the ground where I was in a far more marginal situation than this. The only thing that's risky to do atm is to provide a localised forecast. There must be high confidence that someone will see 20mm of precipitation falling as snow on Monday, but whether that's Exeter, Jersey or Oxford, too early to say.
  22. Man With Beard
    Great summary AMD up there, thanks! Still looking particularly good for Cornwall and South Devon. For the immediate south coast, still ok but a close call. For everyone else, gonna need a bit of luck (unless you don't like snow!). Extreme cold nailed on now though. Edit: just checked ECM precip charts for my area, seems like an upgrade for Monday, between 20mm and 30mm (!) and all snow! http://www.yr.no/sted/Storbritannia/England/Portsmouth/langtidsvarsel.html
  23. Man With Beard
    All main models keep the shortwave more north-west at T144 this morning, resulting in varying degrees of warmer weather by T144. In the nearer timeframe, Monday's front doesn't move as far inland and moves away quicker on Monday night. The SW and perhaps southern coastal towns still see decent snow though.
  24. Man With Beard
    I've seen a lot on 'last minute shifts south'. In my experience, this either happens when a shortwave goes under a block, or when a low pressure system is forecast too deep. This is not a shortwave, and overcooked low pressures normally get sorted out by the models by T48. So I think we're fairly close to ruling out the automatic 'south shift' parameter. I also recall many frontal systems moving in from the south-west ending up much further north. All to play for. Here's my guess for the south coast: no snow - 20%, a little snow 0 to 5 cm - 30%, a decent snowfall 5cm+ - 40%, and even rain - 10%.
  25. Man With Beard
    And admittedly it could be there. But at least we're in the game!
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