Man With Beard

100% snow now. Must be close to settling, just need a heavy pulse.

And now it's turning to sleety snow in north Portsmouth!

Very short distances will make the difference around here - I'm less than 5 miles from you and I'd say it's 95% rain here. Such a waste, we'd be digging ourselves out if this was snow!

Rain definitely getting sleety, perhaps even a few flakes getting through here in Drayton, Portsmouth

Heavy rain in Portsmouth, how come it's heavy when it rains but only light when it snows??

Yes, here in Drayton the rain has got a little more "icy", wouldn't call it sleet but wouldn't rule out a switch to snow later

Raining steadily in portsmouth, in case you were interested. A long way off being snow I'd have thought. Transition line to snow likely to be quite some way inland.

Light sleet in Cosham, around 1 deg C

Melting here too though still snowing

Everything white in Drayton too - didn't see this on the radar half an hour ago?

Actually, many areas that were 5-10cms at T0 are up to 20-30 cm by T48, quite significant IMO

That's the way to do it! Are you going to do it all over again on Monday ?

Well this is turning into Groundhog day, the GFS wants to send low pressure over the block, the euros want to send it under the block. This is now round 3: rounds 1 (last Monday) and 2 (today) overwhelming victories for euros, in particular the UKMO. Round 3 is next Wednesday. Odds must be firmly on another Euro victory - GFS was so hideously wrong the last two times (and well within T120) that I've lost confidence in it at the moment, I barely even look at it - there just seems something missing in its programming that means it can't cope with this situation. So I'm calling a continuation of cold on that basis alone until at least next weekend. BTW - flicked between BBC West and BBC South tonight - BBC South: "Snow on Sunday for Kent and East Sussex" - Fergie on Points West "Snow almost a given as far west as East Wiltshire". Proves you need to watch these forecasts with a critical eye! (or just watch Points West )

Finally dying down again in Drayton, Portsmouth, looking a bit sleety actually. Up to 5 inches now, I think that will be the max.

Picking up a bit in Drayton again, one last hurrah??

A nice three inches in Drayton, Portsmouth but we're missing the heavy stuff at the moment so not really getting deeper - wondering if that's it for the proper snow today

Been very heavy for last half hour, 3 inches in just one hour I'm guessing.

I saw heavy snow in Plymouth from a similar situation just in Jan 2010. If it can happen on the coast that far west, surely it can happen in Bournemouth?

Something falling from the sky in portsmouth, a kind of white drizzle - shall I call it sleet? Onto tomorrow ... just a reminder, NAE precip totals just a guide, last Saturday I was progged 10mm 24 hours before the event but we ended up with much more, probably nearer 25mm, local flooding even. So tomorrow, heavy snow yes, how much, could be more than progged, if the front stalls...make sure you have a shovel! A line from Southampton to Cardiff looks particularly vulnerable to a big fall.

Just seen full GFS London ensembles (sorry cant post as on phone) - one word, sensational. The mean 850 stays -5 or below for 10 DAYS. And though snow predictions by raw GFS not to be treated as gospel, a high snow chance is given for those 10 days with no let up whatsoever.

Is that the 528 line pushing back from the west? Surely the least cold breakdown ever if so! Snow potential from all directions!

Well I thought 850 temps had been on the wane but UKMO sends it pretty cold by Friday, don't think there'll be any rain if this verifies:

The NAE is a big surprise - Thursday now another snow event for central/western areas - rain into the SW. Has this just come out of nowhere or have a missed something? However, the pressure pattern for Europe hasn't changed too much - a little further east but not much: NAE: UKMO: And still looking good for undercut on Friday/Saturday Edit: just seen note from IF above - well, we shall see!

Yet more weather charts that made me think "Wow" this morning! The Atlantic attack again showing signs of edging south (with GFS being the main exception), and as many undercutting lows have gone further south than predicted recently, I can understand ideas that the cold may never leave for the foreseeable future. However, there is another increasing trend - forecast 850 temps edging up in central-western areas as T0 approaches. The real cold sticking in north sea. This may make Friday's attack marginal for snow for many areas? And weakens the foundation of cold for when / if the Atlantic pushes through?

Not quite happened on UKMO T144 - but there's a little sniff of an HP relocation from Scandi to Greenland ... could it possibly happen? ... and would that bring the whole depression in the Atlantic down under us? Getting a bit ahead of the models for sure but it must be a possibility