Man With Beard

This is where my money is. Look at the GEFS ensembles, and you'll see heights very strong to our west / south west, and very few heights into Europe. It's setting up for a push of heights north in the Atlantic once the low pressure train hits a problem. So I'm predicting a cold phase at some point between D10 and D20.

So, is there any hope for cold this winter? Actually, today's ECM ensembles don't completely kill the dream. Between D10 and D15, I see that the main cluster brings an air frost in a few times: Rainfall charts not particularly flat either What does this mean? Possibly more temporary Atlantic ridging? I do have this feeling that an Atlantic ridge is trying to form, and it is simply waiting for a break in the low pressure train coming out of the states (ironically, fuelled by the breakout of cold there aided by the SSW, I believe). So last part of February could be time for this pattern change to hit - or 1st March, just to run it in??

Oh Ian, I am so disappointed to hear this because I love a warm spring, and this sounds more like an endless February!! You have been more accurate than any other forecaster on here in recent years, so, where's that passport renewal form, and where's the foreign holiday brochure??

But with 7.9C being the all time record ... by mid-feb this would still be on the horizon. I'm now thinking a 7C plus month is extremely possible - this morning's charts only showing a restrengthening of a WSWly driven pattern - and I'm feeling more than a little sick about my 4.5C prediction already...

Some hurricane force mean wind speeds there. Once the GFS gets within T72, it's time to start taking it seriously. For the moment, it's a little on its own in terms of severity; ECM ensembles do not show any lows with the same intensity as far as I can make out: http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!96!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2016020400!!/

18Z back on the storm hunt - from an IMBY point of view this would be a little close for comfort, with near 60mph mean winds not far off in the channel Still think it won't turn out like this. I'm waiting to see if the D8/D9 north atlantic ridge of the past two GEFS runs can be repeated, though.

I'm sure if we go back through seasonal threads we will see GloSea5 went for a considerable cold weighting for just to the west of Ireland, emerging in January and getting stronger in February - and the UK on the edge of things. That has not happened. It's not my intention to slate the model but it's important to tell the story properly. Sorry for keeping this going mods but I think if we are to learn from the models we need to look back as well as forward, hope that's OK.

Thanks as always Ian for keeping us abreast with the models we cannot see. From an amateur's perspective, this little period of forecasting has been extremely informative for me, and my conclusion is that the gap between the Met Office/AAM/GWO/MJO experts and us amateur forecasters is not like Man City and Colchester City, but more like Man City and Leicester City. The Met are clearly a step ahead of us, but not that far ahead of us. I've been following all of Ian's posts this winter, and the Glossea model on the METO, and whilst the prognosis in the 7-14 day period has been very useful, the long-term picture has clearly not been much better than what the Netweather forecasters are capable of here. Since November, Glossea have consistently forecasted an increasing cold pattern after the new year - it has not happened. Many others who look into long-range signals have forecasted cold and gone wrong. The only thread I feel has not given false hope is the Strat thread, and Chino - he has made it clear all winter that an SSW was a strong possibility, but it would only be useful if it occurred in the right way. Chino has been absolutely spot-on with that. On the flip-side, we have had one marginally good cold spell this winter - in the middle of January. I didn't see any long-term posters pick that up a month before - but a few of us on here saw the potential right back to the new-year period, when we realised the warm shot into the Arctic had to cause a break-out of cold of some sort, and gradually we saw heights push out in the direction of Greenland even 15 days before anything cold happened in the UK. I don't think anyone with access to more expensive models than us on here beat us to it. I appreciate the METO have done well in the last couple of years (and that they got the first five weeks of this winter more or less right) - but that was on a mild UK pattern. I think the real test comes with getting cold UK patterns right, as they are ten times harder to nail, surely. So the modelling so far this winter has left me with a couple of conclusions. 1. Don't be too in awe of those with extra information and knowledge. It gets them a bit further - and of course we should listen to them carefully - but they haven't got a magic weather forecasting app that we don't have. And 2. Don't get too drawn in by forecasts going beyond 14 days. Changes in patterns are constantly popping up out of the blue. I can think of so so many major weather events in recent years than had no forewarning outside of 14 days. And so that brings me to the good news - there's still hope for the second half of February, because no-one can too confidently predict that there won't be the weather type that you want - whether that's early spring or Siberia! Happy model watching everyone!

Yes I certainly agree with that. We would need to see the pattern I highlighted repeated a few times before any confidence could be gathered. However, the GFS very rarely shows north Atlantic ridging inside D10, so the 06Z was noteworthy for that. Can the 12Z repeat it? We're about to find out...

Just to clarify, the follow-on from John's post was the link to archive charts, by which you can easily compare past runs. The rest of my post was entirely my opinion of the models, nothing to do with JH.

Just to add to John's post - for easy comparison of runs, you can use Meteociel's "archive" options; here is the GFS link: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=1&runpara=0 On to the current charts - the period 10th-12th February has been the recent focal period for cold, and the GFS 06Z shows a fairly cold set-up at this point: Control run isn't too far off: GEFS ensemble mean is also pushing heights up to Iceland Pretty cold ECM ensembles not falling over themselves in support, but some members supporting a colder period around this time OK - moving from the cold to the wind - the ECM ensemble wind chart nicely demonstrates how the GFS completely overblows lows in comparison to the mean. See if you can spot the GFS 00Z on this chart (Clue: It's the one that goes off the scale at the top )

Michael Fish moment - fantastic! I almost wish I'm wrong just for the that! No I still don't see it - GFS and now ECM, and in fact all other models disagree on timing and shape of that storm - I think history tells us that a storm headed for central UK at T144 more often than not end up more NW by T0. Maybe a 10%-20% chance of severe storm over highly populated areas. Edit: OK I have just seen UKMO - similar to ECM. Also I note lack of heights to the east so nothing to hold the low back. I'll up my odds to 20-30% of severe winds (which I qualify as 75mph plus gusts at inland locations)

I see some people flagging up the storm at weekend - now I avidly followed the 2013/14 storms and in honesty I don't see the coming storms being at that level - sure, the odd GFS run might scare us but most likely scenario to me is coasts up to 70mph gusts, maybe the odd 80mph, 60mph inland - that's not in the same league as the Scottish storms of the past few days and not enough for widespread damage. No, the real emerging story this month, to me, is the title of warmest ever winter. With the mid-month northerly already seriously in question (going by GEFS and ECM ensembles), its looking more and more likely. I 100% concur with Mucka's comment on model preferences above and - dare I say - this warm winter may actually be one or two people's dream winter

GEFS Northern Hemisphere profile: some blocking in N Atlantic, but all members retain strong vortex over Canada, so a chance of a temporary block but not likely to last long http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=240 ECM ensembles London: if anything, they are back on an upward trend for temperatures - very few runs that could be described in the "cold category" even out to D15 At present, what we can see suggests colder spells limited to 24/48 hour affairs at most. Fence panels, however, are not so safe - a number of ECM members at T120 with gales or better, in various locations:

The ECM ensembles (below) and GFS 06Z provide half a chance for cold between 10/14 February GFS 'simply' needs Atlantic low to phase with Scandi low at D9 and the northerly will follow

Thanks Ian as ever. I think many of us will be very interested to see if the Met Office models can nail this, as though they have done very well recently in predicting milder spells in advance, it's a whole different ball game to predict colder spells so far ahead, particularly as other model output that we can see currently would not lead us to such a conclusion! If Glossea5/Mogrep/decider can nail these colder spells for February - which you have been emphasising for some weeks now - then I think all on here will develop a new respect for them.

This morning's ECM, for me, is a bit of a defining moment. There had existed the chance, for about 72 hours, for a weak ridge to develop, just about good enough to bring a northerly element into play, and for a pattern to emerge throwing lows ever further to our south. However this morning, I see stronger ridging into Iberia between T168 and T216 - story of the winter, really. This stops low pressure ever setting up far enough to the south for that northerly element to dominate. I'd be surprised to see a return to the colder ideas now. Instead, we're faced with lots of rain and wind, again, and a few snowflakes for Scotland/N Ireland from time to time

Better cold clusters beyond D10 on the ECM ensembles (London) tonight - a fair few maxing at 4C or lower later on in the run.

Some cheering up needed - though I agree with most of the posts above, GEM ensemble member 7 at T384 surely gives us hope

3.9C ... feels risky but I'm now seeing a tendency for the vortex to be based to our NE in the first half of the month, which suggests low side of average temperatures to me.

Temperatures definitely on the way down for the first week of Feb - quite a surprise for me after seeing the ensembles a few days ago. Whether cold enough for lasting snow or not, looking encouraging for northern areas but the south still likely to miss it (though at least 'in the game' now). The 10C+ days are over after D5 on ECM, and GEFS 850s for London has a nice cluster at -6C for at least 48 hours next week.

NOAA 8-14 dayer is having none of this cold stuff - just the tiniest bit of amplification possible there, so this chart would be too flat for more than a cold breeze after a cold front passes through ECM ensembles for London shows the op is again a massive outlier between T192 and T216: But with the ECM control following the op, the colder option is not to be discounted - especially since the run brings in cold via micro-scale synoptics rather than the macro-scale

A good point, so just for you here's a non wintry-biased post on the ECM T168 A strong westerly flow over the UK, so slightly above average temperatures especially further south. Coastal gales likely and no doubt the odd front passing west to east within the 24 hour period, so a mixture of rain clearing to sunshine and showers. Cold enough for snow over Scottish mountains. Low pressure to the NW likely to move in within the next 24 hour period with the possibility of a weak ridge building behind it, so a NWly may set in temporarily, so slightly below average temperatures likely for all parts in the T192/T216 period with very cold rain for the south, snow possibly more extensive over Scotland and snow above 200m/300m in N Wales, Lancashire, Cumbria, Northumbria and Yorkshire. Severe gales likely over Scotland especially coastal regions and probably a squally front heading south with temporarily strong gusts for all places as the air-mass changes. The chart suggests below average temperatures lasting a day or two after T168 but, due to low heights over Greenland/Iceland, southern areas will probably return to average/above-average after this time. With no lows ejecting from the US, there is also the possibility of slightly drier weather establishing for a few days too. Is that alright?

Not been able to post much recently but a small window now, so here's my assessment. Forecasting on here comes in two types - what could happen, and what probably will happen. Singularity is doing a fantastic job in flagging up some of the longer-term "coulds" - keep them coming please! - personally, my level of long-term forecasting expertise is pretty close to zero, so I'm left to say what I see in the models. GEFS T384 mean Not a surprise to see the Azores High in that position, but 1030mb sits off the coast of Portugal for more or less the entire run. Highest uncertainty is over the UK from T240 onwards - looking at the ensembles individually, I'd say that's more down to timing issues of pssing lows. More importantly, fairly low uncertainty with regards troughing to the north, so very little chance given of a height rise to our north in the next 15 days: ECM ensembles for London - trending a little cooler in the D10-D15 period, but this is probably explained by the GEFS charts - passing lows, temporary WNW flow after the exit of cold fronts causing fluctuations between mild and slightly below average conditions - not properly wintry at least in the south: And so this takes us out to the 9th February. Verdict - seeing any snow at all south of the Pennines and below 400m would be quite a surprise. Instead, we have a fair amount of rain: and the odd gale, though nothing too extreme likely away from the far NW Now it seems everyone is looking at the mid-February period onwards. Some of our top long-range forecasters (or those with access to long-range models) have banged a bit of a drum about the prospect of a cold flip around this time. We need caution here. Predictions at D20 and beyond can only be categorised in the "could happen" category. I caution anyone against putting them in the "will probably" category. The truth is, if we get to February 10th in the way it seems we will, we will still be in need of dominoes falling in a favourable fashion to get a proper cold snap to the UK. And of course, if the charts are still zonal on February 10th, even a change in pattern may require an extra 5-10 days to filter through to the UK, taking us up to February 20th - and by that time, synoptics are increasingly required to be optimum to get cold/snow to our shores. So my verdict is - I don't rule out the possibility of wintry weather returning to the UK - but if I was forced to say one way or another, my feeling is 60:40 that many southern areas may again miss out on proper wintry cold within the optimum winter period - those lucky enough to have seen snow last week may have scooped all in the prize fund. Further north may get lucky on a weak PM shot, but don't expect anything white lying on your ground for too long. Sorry.