seb
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Everything posted by seb
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Look at the French radar and also latest sat image (that line is most definitely visible on the sat).
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Tonight. The more East you go the lighter but certainly has snow. Saying that... radar watching over the last hour means we should ignore all models for the next few hours! Some very bizarre stuff going on that I can't explain and haven't witnessed before.
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Not sure how different countries' radars are connected to show on free radar websites but Meteo France is giving similar returns.
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It isn't pivoting even though you'd expect it. Also latest HIRLAM already brings precip all the way to East Kent but has everything further west than where it actually currently is.
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Well the afternoon MetO video forecast mention snow "may extent into SE England" tonight and then has us under a decent amount tomorrow starting around 6am until around 3PM with a risk of freezing rain.
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Steering winds are almost due north (700hPA) which is what counts
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Not thought I'd ever say this but I disagree with you. I've been watching this all morning and thus far it's been going in a straight SW-NE line whilst expanding to the East and intensifying. I was worried it'd be pushed West or indeed pivot and been expecting it to happen at any point but so far it's not done that. I admit it's baffling as it should but no matter what radar or sat I look at it simply hasn't.
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There was never a warning in place for 10-15cm in our area for tomorrow.
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Sorry, sorry, sorry! This misquoting was even worse than I thought! I meant to quite a post from @WheresTheSnow stating that MetO and BBC apps are not showing any snow. Sorry again!!!
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MetO video forecast begs to differ, so does HIRLAM and to an extent Aperge. Either way - more and more agreement on snow tomorrow and according to latest MetO warning a bit more Saturday morning which is more than we had ever forecast.
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Fair enough but clearly what you said earlier implies that you are looking at the automated forecasts (hourly symbols) - they are the same as the apps. Raw model data from usually one model only.
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IGNORE.THE.APPS!!!!! Edit: Quoted wrong post. B**dy phone! But the message remains lol.
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Latest MetO video forecast is a carbon copy of HIRLAM. Snow showers for us from late afternoon, heavy snow second part of the night/tomorrow morning.
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And London has had a massive dumping yesterday while the east of the region has had significant and disruptive snow since Monday. There are currently still train cancellations and dangerous driving conditions on all untreated roads. Absolutely nothing wrong at all with the warnings that have been issued. And this is coming from me where I had a huge discussion with the MetO a few weeks ago when they dropped the ball on the "un-named storm" that caused damage in Kent but wasn't warned.
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Not exactly true. HIRLAM shows very light snow over the area which is correct. It has been snowing here lightly since 6am. However, we are referring to the almost perfect match between radar and model regarding the big areas of precip over France. HIRLAM then shows snow later this afternoon/evening moving into our area, which I assume are the showers building SE of the main precip area and which are moving NE, right at us.
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Fully agree with both your posts re HIRLAM. Arperge also close but not as spot on as HIRLAM. The showers SE of the front also show up on the two latest sat images and are moving NE.
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The area in red is what I’m looking at. It’s barely in the French radar yet but on the sat you can see it’s moving directly NE. There’s also bound to be convection kicking off in front of that area once it moves closer to the channel. And that’s what I believe is what’s being shown by the high res models for later.
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Lol I hope you're taking the p!ss... if it's raining then you have an ice rink considering the current 2m temps.
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I have no idea haha. I think this situation is pretty unprecedented. Never see so much disagreement on models.
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No not at all. Yellow warning was updated this morning to be extended further north in the SE as it only covered half of Kent. 2-5cm included in that warning along with 50mph gusts. May well be updated or upgraded again depending on next model run and above all I would say live radar data. Red Warning area is shown as highest totals and strongest winds on all models. Also, red is necessary because of high risk of freezing rain in that area tonight.
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I think Mr Fawkes is onto something. All hi-res models show snow in our region starting with the dusting just now, followed by a break and then a good dumping later. They also all agree that the next band arrives overnight rather than late tomorrow morning. Arpege is the most bullish followed by HIRLAM.
