seb

Can't deal with the moaners in MAD any longer. How hard is it to understand that one model moving north a couple hundred miles while another moving south a couple hundred miles at the exact time simply means that there is some margin for movement around that general area.

Banked!

I't 1:10 for wet snow and 1:20 for dry so the latter for snow next week due to extremely low dew points. However, Metcheck for some weird reasons thinks it can do the calculation for its users ;-)

You are indeed correct. Don't use Metcheck normally so not aware of this. Saying that - There are a lot of GFS precip charts for Wed/Thu that show totals close to 15 inches. Not that it matters - we know that apps and publicly available precip charts are useless.

Please, please ignore snow charts. The ones that are available to the public are rubbish and can't capture convective precipitation. What they are showing currently are several options of snow caused by troughs moving through but those are almost as difficult to capture on models as convective stuff. The models know they will move through but have no idea where. There is one scenario which has been picked up by the GFS and that's a low very close to the UK - hence the insane snowfall totals as I posted from Metcheck earlier. But even that is, in the current setup, very unreliable and could disappear as quickly as it showed up this morning. Steve's post and MetO extended text forecast as the best to give you an idea what to expect.

Well if I were to take GFS precip forecast literally then I'd be under >1.20m of snow by Thursday evening. This is from Metcheck for Ashford which AFAIK uses GFS raw data.

And other models on the 18th showed what the GFS is showing now, whereas they have no sped up the arrival of the very cold air. On balance there is no delay.

It wasn't ever shown across the board to come on Sunday. Overall consensus was always Sunday into Monday. As for the shortwave - that's perfect as it means snow rather than just cold.

This moaning is getting beyond ridiculous! These have been, are and remain the best charts we have seen in years. There is nothing marginal and there will be snow for large parts of the country for at least 3-4 days. There is also the risk of disruptive snow and we will stay below freezing for the period. There is some model divergence towards the end of next week which is normal but considering the overall set up it is likely any mild air incursions will be delayed. We live in the UK, not Canada, the northern US or Eastern Europe. All models show the most severe cold spell in years so, really, enough with the negativity because of a few wobbles showing temps 3 degrees higher than other runs.

By charts you mean computer generated forecasts I assume? Forget about them....

Honestly can't understand any of the downbeat posts either here or in the MAD thread. Nothing in the big picture has changed. It will be extremely cold from Monday morning onwards (always been shown like this); we will be under an Easterly flow with beefy showers continuously coming in from the North Sea. These are not and will not be picked up by any models that are accessible to the public, what the precip models are showing are areas of snow associated with troughs that may or may not happen. Now for the period from Thu/Fri next week, models diverge. However, given the default behaviour in set ups like this it is more than likely that the cold will continue for a while. And once again - forget any apps or computer generated day-by-day forecasts. Stick to MetO text forecasts.

Also, all but one of ensembles don’t agree with the op run.

It’s absolutely fine as it is. Really don’t understand the panic.

Only over the North.

What backtrack? Where? Unless someone has access to more recent model runs than the ones publicly available and they show a backtrack, there is no backtrack. I can't remember the last time there was such x-model consensus.

No longer their job

MetO going with snow showers from Sunday onwards (rather than snow flurries as per yesterday) changing to "prolonged snow" from Tue then changing to "significant snow". BBC using Meteogroup now.

Yes, not impressed with the BBC Meteogroup forecasts so far. Most days they have been very wrong. Weirdly, their own Weather Pro app shows -2 to 1 for Monday and Tuesday. Even has the slightest hint of precipitation (<0.1mm) haha. Screenshot attached. Might be your cache?

No one at this time can make this call. However, meteorologists know that based on the setup heave snow showers (prolonged at times) are likely along the entire East Coast. In addition there are several opportunities for snow pushing in from the south. This is exactly what the text MetO update states. I would not listen to BBC TV forecasts, radio forecasts (unless they simply read out the MetO text forecast) or more importantly the output of any app.

Wow just wow... Latest MetO update: UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018: Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill. UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 21 Mar 2018: At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March

No it’s just jealous northerners who can’t deal with the South and East being in the bullseye for once!

The small area of precipitation over EA, Essex and Kent is moving south, the big one is also currently going straight south, however, everything to the northwest of that is moving southeast so we might well all be lucky from West London all the way over to Essex and Kent.

Light snow in Ashford

Yes, all TV forecasts switched at 1PM today; website and app should be Meteogroup but the roll out was staggered so some might still get MetO. On the website you can check if you scroll to the bottom.

Yes it says ice will be more of a hazard but 1cm snow possible. Better than nothing... and better than what it looked like yesterday. I have a feeling we’ll see some surprises.