seb

Yes and the link earlier was +24 hours, e.g. precip showing in orange.

It’s the 24 hour prediction on that link mate. Live and three hours (+3 uur) based on live is white.

Clouds rolling in here too (SE Kent).

That’s based on GFS at long range, not picking up most convection.

Of course there is on the Dutch. See my post above but here it is again. its the Buienradar app, zoomed out. also added NW Germany radar.

Here comes the first lot. ETA approx 2am.

And we are under AMBER for Tuesday ?

Additional warning for snow just been issued valid from 4AM tonight to cover period until the already existing warning becomes effective.

You’re looking at 500hpa lines. 750hpa is absolutely fine and that’s what counts.

And now AccuWeather as well. All falling into place ? 3-6cm Monday daytime, locally higher amounts in heavier snow bands.

Even the good old weather Channel app has picked up on convective activity ? “potential for significant accumulation” on Tue - never read that on there before!

MeteoGroup started in the Netherlands and is now one of the top 5 weather providers in the world. It’s headquartered in London and owned by General Atlantic. No idea what is going on at the BBC but Meteogroup’s own app “WeatherPro” is pretty much spot on and in line with models and MetO. Their forecasts in other countries are fine. Watched Dutch RTL4 earlier. Baffling!

Hearing the same form my social care clients - full emergency protocols being implemented now (before the weekend when less admin staff are in).

Mate I’m not sure what your problem is. I said this morning that we will see extensive “lake effect” snow. You complained that the MetO forecast don’t mention it. I said they will from this afternoon, and now they do (I do have my sources). Now you’re still moaning and doubt their forecast.

Whoop! MetOffice officially stating "significant and disruptive snow" from Tue onwards.

The forecast ends with "risk of significant snow".

To add to this - this is now happening to all apps. MetO symbols have been showing the snow showers since this morning, then AW as per above, now the Weather Channel app is giving snow showers from Mon late morning until Wed evening... (followed by a huge dumping from Thu evening (as per GFS)).

Extended outlook (as per above) which will be updated this PM in any event. Apart from that - scattered showers is entirely correct. It will be showers from the North Sea. Those showers brought us endless snow in previous similar set ups.

Some apps (AccuWeather for once) are now starting to pick up shower activity for Mon-Wed but are still struggling. AW is giving me 3.5 inches for that period from “occasional flurries”. As I know the AW backend well, this discrepancy between amounts and descriptive text makes perfect sense to me but in general shows how badly automated apps cope with this kind of setup. It does the same by the way for lake effect snow in the US.

Erm no they have not. Outlook for Saturday to Monday (South East): Becoming much colder into the weekend and beyond, with an increasing wind chill. Overnight frost becoming more severe, and an increasing risk of scattered snow showers on Monday. UK Outlook for Monday 26 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2018: It will be turning much colder next week. Monday and Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas, where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through the rest of the week it will remain cold with an increased risk of ice, frost and snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east and across southern England. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill. That's not marginal at all - it gives a wide range from showers to significant snow across the SE. Apart from that, I can promise you that the extended outlook (above is from yesterday afternoon) will read significantly more bullish later today.

He can't discount it as it is a very possible scenario. As per my earlier post - the german weather service is calling for >50cm of "lake effect" snow coming off the Baltic Sea - water temps are 5-6 degrees lower than the North Sea so despite the uppers there being 2-3 degree colder compared to what will sit above us, the difference in temps here is still greater. So >50cm in NE Germany could easily translate to more here.

Nope. All of the east coast will see snow. It's impossible not snow. How much is a different question and depends on a number of factors. Central Europe will stay dry and extremely cold but for once us being on an island surrounded by water will be an advantage. Same applies to north east Germany as per my earlier post.

PLEASE stop looking at the apps. This is not a setup suited for automated apps. Stick to text forecasts. No model used for any of the apps is properly capable of picking up "lake effect" snow showers.

Borderline model related (sorry) but very much related to the amount of snow we can expect from showers (our own version of lake effect snow). If you are worried about snow showers from the East... The German Met Office is expecting >50cm from "lake effect" snow in NE Germany caused by showers kicking off over the Baltic Sea. For reference - the water temp there is about 2 degrees whereas the North Sea to our East is about 6-7 degrees. So extremely good conditions for convective precip.

Just as an FYI for people who are worried about snow showers from the East. The German Met Office is expecting >50cm from "lake effect" snow in NE Germany caused by showers kicking off over the Baltic Sea. For reference - the water temp there is about 2 degrees whereas the North Sea to our East is about 6-7 degrees. So extremely good conditions!