seb
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Everything posted by seb
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And it’s currently miles out with the location whereas HILRAM is pretty damn close.
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Yeah was just going to say that!
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French low is significantly further north and east than forecast. Northern extend into Paris which is 4 hours early. Easy already into SW Germany and Switzerland.
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what’s going on? New warning just been issued for us!? low over France looks like coming straight at us on radar as well. wind blowing from a different direction than forecast.
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It's out on the app. Website having technical difficulties. I posted earlier... nice upgrade for tomorrow and Friday.
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In line with MetO guidance re snow pushing up from the SW tomorrow morning.
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If the wind stays NE then yes, quite a few showers out there. Wasn't really meant to happen so radar watching... last there updates have the showers move SW. If that stays this way we should see some heavier ones in about an hour or so.
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Nice upgrade on public forecast as well, in line with info from my mate as per post above.
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Latest MetO guidance calling for snow from early tomorrow coming up from the south. Still some uncertainty re intensity but should continue all day. 70% of heavy snow in our region with warnings potentially being updated late this evening (main risk south and west of the region in a line up to Dartford, Medway and over to the coast). Also potential for freezing rain possibly in time for rush hour Friday morning before turning to a mix of snow and sleet. This again is from my friend who gets detailed products as part of his job. Last three days this has been spot on.
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Flurries in Ashford.
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Nope. Warning for tomorrow covering half of the Southeast, Friday all of us (both for snow, tomorrow also for wind) and then Saturday one for ice. See screen grabs.
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Warnings are in force for Friday, Thursday? Sat is now an ice warning.
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Latest MetO video forecast shows showers across the region later. Let's see if the warning for today remains or gets updated removed later. Potential for tomorrow's heavy snow to move further east according to this forecast. Doesn't show Friday yet.
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Winter wonderland in Ashford after last night’s heavy showers. 6cm in 2 hour on top of yesterday’s. Car showing -12, local weather station (a bit more sheltered than I am) showing -11.6.
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No. But be ready for the massive blob just about to hit Canterbury. Heavy snow from about 8:20 for us.
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Yep if all goes to plan. Never seen ice form so quickly! Sun was so strong this PM and drip, drip, drip. Sun went down and working 5 minutes icicles everywhere!
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Indeed and look what those charts are showing right above us (as per my post above):
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Yes but all High Res models are showing a very chunky convergence zone where NE and SE winds meet, right above us, between those hours. So while not as long lasting as last night and this morning, certainly the potential to be significantly stronger. Add to that the lower temps tonight and you've got great potential.
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Quite a bit earlier on latest guidance - between 6-7am just in time for rush hour. Then continuous snow, turning heavy around 11am for about 2 hours, until early evening.
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
seb replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What are you talking about? Warnings for Thu and Fri were issued a few hours ago/extended to cover the whole of the south. All models are showing all snow on Thu and Fri before milder air arrives in the south.- 1,198 replies
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Showers galore incoming from the North Sea moving SW/SSW ? And Thu/Fri looking wild! Perfect few days before it’s time for sling!
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New MetO video forecast just up - Blizzard conditions on Thu afternoon into Friday before the big melt!!
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@Steve Murr @Nick F @Paul Sherman You agree with what I've been told by my mate who gets detailed MetO updates due to his job? All forecasts I can find, regardless of text or app seem to support this. Haven't had a chance to look at models output myself. Latest guidance calls for all snow, heavy at times combined with 25-45mph winds on Thursday for the entire Southeast (relevant warning issued about an hour ago - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=se&date=2018-03-01®ionType=area ) and more of the same on Friday (relevant warning updated to expand Southeast a few minutes ago - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=se&date=2018-03-02®ionType=area ) and the potentially more of the same on Saturday before milder air arrives (relevant warning issued a few minutes ago - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=se&date=2018-03-03®ionType=area ). Confidence: Thu -85% Fri - 70% Sat - 60%
