sn0wman

It's more like people complaining about their football team losing after half their players are sent off and they're 5 nil down in the first 10 minutes of play Seriously, it will be pretty hard for thunderstorms to form in this mess of periodic light rain.

Exactly. Whilst Paul makes a good point, it's different when you live somewhere which very rarely gets thunderstorms and you can't chase them. The notion that someome can't be upset when there is such great potential but nothing happens is frankly ridiculous. Of course, it's unjustified to get annoyed at forecasters (thanks to Nick F, Paul & BrickFielder for all the first-class updates the past few days), but I don't think it's unreasonable for people to be upset at a pretty much once-in-a-decade event going bust. I mean, if people are allowed to be upset/annoyed after their favourite football team loses, then why is it unacceptable for us to get annoyed over the weather?

But there wasn't mean to be complete cloud cover and light rain over these areas, which has prevented the build up of the huge CAPE values predicted earlier. I really hope you're right but just don't see it happening any more.

Depressing weather here now. Completely overcast and getting quite chilly. Never had such a letdown weather-wise in my life. No idea what went so wrong. I know some people might say it's too early but it just doesn't feel thundery at all and there is far too much cloud cover. This morning was so warm & humid and the sky was full of AcCas clouds; then, a dreadful layer of stratus in the afternoon pretty much ruined any chance of a thunderstorm. What will it take to get a storm here?

Very disappointing day so far Light rain starting now to make it even worse. Where are the thunderstorms?? ;( Level 2 Estofex warning for this...

Thanks very much for the reply - that's what I like to hear Still find it confusing how there's almost 2000J/kg CAPE (according to NMM) over parts of Southern Scotland right now yet the rain hasn't intensified there at all. A few drops of rain here atm and temperature has fallen to 21℃.

Hi Paul,Any chance you could give an update on the situation over NW England & Southern Scotland? Bit worried now as only light rain seems to be forming. Is it a lot later thunderstorms were forecast or has the instability shifted much further east? Thanks.

I thought the July record was completely safe What a day!

That storm over Tyneside does look like it's becoming severe. Potentially dangerous situation for Newcastle if it keeps up.

Has cloud cover ruined the 'main show' over NW England and Southern Scotland? Still no signs of anything firing yet and light rain is moving into the area ;( No updates recently from any of the more knowledgeable either... Praying it doesn't bust.

Completely overcast here now Worried that no thunderstorms seem to be forming in the Central Lowlands, although it is early in the day. Is it still looking good for the potential of severe thunderstorms over Southern Scotland/NW England later on today? All the action so far has been away from areas which have been forecasted to be most at risk :/

The sky here just screams explosive convection More sun breaking through the AcCas clouds now - hopefully this will help build up CAPE levels.

Amazing update - thanks very much for this! First time I've ever been under a moderate risk Just noticed the first proper storm forming north of Lancaster. And so it begins...

Brilliant summary Can't even express how excited I am for tomorrow's potential Really hoping I'm not too far west for thunderstorms though - Clackmananshire is just on the northwestern boundary of the Estofex Level 2 area. Wish I could do some storm chasing; can't start driving lessons until September sadly!

Exactly haha. Estofex does put a lot of emphasis on the initiation of storms being difficult so I'm trying not to get too excited. Pretty sure Alloa is just inside the Level 2 area... Still find it really weird seeing a Level 2 in Scotland

Level 2 issued by Estofex over Northern England and Southern Scotland for tomorrow :O Never seen a Level 2 threat over Scotland before - this is uncharted territory here. Their forecast highlights the potential for severe thunderstorms (even bow echoes & supercells) but also the high degree of uncertainty in the situation. So exciting to see a Level 2 IMBY though - can hardly believe it tbh. The wording of the forecast is very strong at some points, for example: "Potentially very severe situation with number of question marks will develop over parts of UK. "

Estofex are pretty late with their forecast for tomorrow. Really hope they manage to issue one... Edit: Just seen the radar. Looks very promising for some in the south tonight. Good luck!

I agree - brilliant update from Nick Sounds very interesting. By 'near Scotland', do you mean off the coast or just a general small risk of marginal supercell structures anywhere in Scotland? Thanks.

Very strange that they haven't put Central Scotland under the warning. Models are currently showing some of the most intense thunderstorms over this area.

Tomorrow probably has the best potential for intense thunderstorms we've seen in years. It's not often you see Scotland at highest risk in a Spanish plume set up, but all the models are pointing towards an unsually high potential tomorrow. May 2006 anyone?

First time I've seen a moderate risk over my location... Exciting times!

Definitely a very good analog. So excited for Wednesday to be honest. Even if there aren't any storms in my area, it will be really interesting seeing last-minute model predictions and doing loads of radar-watching

I don't have enough time to post the relevant charts atm - will do when I get back home. No, it wasn't a guess at all (bit rude to say that?). I've been following the situation closely, researching past events and using various models, especially the WRF-NMM, which is pretty accurate in this timeframe, so I have a good (by no means the best) understanding of the set-up this week.

So do I Been waiting for ageees for a good thunderstorm - they're as rare as hen's teeth around here. Not going to get too excited for Wednesday, as storms are so hit and miss really.

I would say that maximum instability is currently forecast to be over central and western areas during Wednesday, not central and eastern areas. Furthermore, there will be higher levels of CIN over eastern areas, reducing the likelihood of thunderstorm formation here. However, the timing of that trough certainly isn't nailed on yet, so we'll need to wait till tomorrow evening until we can give a more accurate assessment of areas of maximum instability. I completely agree that discussing favoured areas for the whole time period (Tue-Sat) is misleading, but taking one day on its own and looking at favoured areas, like Wednesday, is fine. Friday evening looks like it could deliver some intense thunderstorms over Southern England, with more eastern areas currently favoured for the main action. Could be some real humdingers mixed in (hopefully that hasn't doomed it now!). I imagine the MO are watching the situation very closely - could be quite a bit of disruption if it comes off as currently modelled.