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sn0wman

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Everything posted by sn0wman

  1. sn0wman
    Don't know where you're getting this from. There might be a lot of CAPE building up in the East on Wednesday but the trigger (isentropic lifting) definitely favours the West. I expect thunderstorms will break out over Wales first and then rapid initiation will probably occur over North West England and Western Scotland later on Wednesday.
  2. sn0wman
    Looks like Scotland & NW England could be in the firing line for storms next Wednesday/Thursday (for once!). I've become so used to just watching webcams in Southern England when there's a plume occurring - very exciting to finally have potential pretty much anywhere in the UK. I know it's too early to forecast specifics thunderstorm-wise, but does it look like there's any potential for some severe thunderstorms? Noticed that a strongish jetstream is forecast to be near Scotland on Wednesday/Thursday - maybe this could aid development of stronger thunderstorms?
  3. sn0wman
    The marginal risk seems rather incongruous with your description? :/ Thanks for the forecast though!
  4. sn0wman
    Waiting for the squall line... Hopefully there'll be some thunder & lightning mixed in!
  5. sn0wman
    Not had much snow (if any?) here since that spell last night. Still at just over 2 inches but worried about melting now Hopefully that really nice shower over Gourock can make it to the Central Belt in the next hour or so, before the sun has too much of an effect!
  6. sn0wman
    What an amazing spell of snow Showers in this kind of set-up always seem to die before they reach Alloa, but this time they've actually been intensifying right over us! Must be due to the more southerly component of the wind. I'd estimate about 2 inches lying here - most of this fell in the space of 20 minutes! Surprised there's only a yellow warning for this. BBC Weather still tweeting about "locally 1-3 cm" to lower levels but we've already passed 5 cm Will be interesting to see if there's any more snow overnight.
  7. sn0wman
    Definitely the best snow this winter here (or spring I guess!). Looks to be a perfectly aligned incoming trail of showers for the next half hour too - so happy right now!
  8. sn0wman
    Those showers lining up in the west are looking very promising for us Central Lowlanders
  9. sn0wman
    So so jealous! Showers just aren't hitting Alloa now that it's cold enough for snow to lie Hopefully a covering by the morning...
  10. sn0wman
    Had a short period of heavy snow that started to lie around 10 minutes ago. Already melted though; now the roads and pavements are all wet again Showers always seem to break apart once they reach Stirling and Alloa, whilst intensifying to the south. Hopefully this will change later on tonight!
  11. sn0wman
    Thanks for the reply The point I was making is that the 12z GFS run showed the feature affecting Central Scotland with a spell of prolonged snow, whereas in previous runs it had kept the trough/low confined to western coastal areas. Temperature has dropped to 1.1°C here and ground is starting to dry a little now thankfully!
  12. sn0wman
    The latest GFS run has a very interesting feature bringing heavy, persistent snow to Central Scotland tomorrow evening. Not been shown in any previous runs so probably won't happen, but it is very unusual for something so distinct to appear at short range. Perhaps something to keep an eye on? Would certainly take the Met Office by surprise if it did occur.
  13. sn0wman
    Some lovely cloudscapes today. Had an extremely heavy snow shower in Stirling around 9 am, which started to lie on all surfaces but soon melted. Hopefully this interlude between showers will help dry the ground a little - lots of puddles about after hours of sleet! Met Office amber warning doesn't come into effect until 5 pm, so still lots of promise for lying snow in the Central Belt
  14. sn0wman
    Met Office forecast for Central, Tayside & Fife is looking interesting to say the least: Today:Bright with sunny intervals and snow showers, these heaviest and most frequent in the south and west, giving slight to moderate falls, even on low ground. Strong westerly winds, causing drifting on high ground. Maximum Temperature 5C. Tonight:Clear intervals and snow showers, most frequent in the west, but feeding through the Forth Clyde valley in the strong westerly winds. Widespread frost with icy patches. Minimum Temperature -4C. Especially like the bit about snow showers "feeding through the Forth Clyde valley" BBC Weather also hinting at an area of more persistent snow in the Central Lowlands this evening, which matches up quite well with the latest Euro4 run. No hints of marginality either; dewpoints firmly below zero for most of us after around 3pm. Excited for this one today!
  15. sn0wman
    Alloa got lucky overnight About 2 cm here - the first proper lying snow this winter. Looks beautiful. All eyes on next Tuesday into Wednesday now. Could be some really good frontal snow or perhaps a sleet fest.
  16. sn0wman
    Snowing but not lying Really hope this doesn't keep up all night.
  17. sn0wman
    Had a short but intense snow shower just before 6, left a nice covering on all surfaces. Thought the temperature might be low enough for us to hold on to the snow cover but it melted within 15 minutes Now the roads and pavements are really wet - hope this doesn't stop further snow from lying.
  18. sn0wman
    Looks like just a small shower, but there is an area of more organised precipitation starting to move in from the west. Could be the beginning of the more prolonged forecast snow! Don't know why people think the MO are wrong to issue an amber warning tonight - there's a good chance of disruptive snow during both rush hours over the Central Belt. Latest WRF-NMM is really going for it, with prolonged and heavy snow streamers setting up over our area. I would be happy with even just a covering tomorrow morning; not had any lying snow so far this winter, although there was a very slight dusting of hail today. In the longer term, models are looking much more promising for sustained cold, courtesy of the MJO moving (almost!) into phase 8 I think. Interesting times ahead for sure
  19. sn0wman
    Cannot believe the weather tonight. Crazy, crazy 5 minute period of thunder, lightning and the strongest gusts I've experienced.
  20. sn0wman
    Thread is nicely busy tonight so thought I'd make my first post of the winter Been watching Thursday night closely on the charts - definitely looks like the best potential so far for accumulating snow in the Central Lowlands. It's one of those set-ups where there could be huge differences in snow totals within a small area. The evolution of the low appears to be quite complex, with high uncertainty on how far north/south it will go. UKMO does look the best for central areas at the moment; kind of reminds me of January 8th 2011, where a similar system gave almost 10cm to parts of Central-Eastern Scotland. Nice to see the MO have an early warning out too! P.S. huge thank you to LS for keeping everyone updated with snow prospects! Always a very interesting read
  21. sn0wman
    Looks like a cell erupted over Ashford! Any updates??
  22. sn0wman
    The MCS behind this intense line of thunderstorms is now turning NW in response to the change in steering winds. Could be a night to remember (if not already!) for many parts of Southern England.
  23. sn0wman
    Check this webcam out now again haha - http://www.newhavenwebcams.co.uk/ Truly amazing thunderstorms now!
  24. sn0wman
    Seen a few amazing bolts on this cam! http://www.bournemouth.gov.uk/Microsites/Waterfront/Waterfront-Live.aspx
  25. sn0wman
    Lightning much closer, wind picking up and raining on this cam now - http://www.newhavenwebcams.co.uk/ Edit: Cloud 10 beat me to it
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