su rui ke
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Posts posted by su rui ke
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Oh dear - there was a full-page article in today's Sunday Post about 'leading meteorologist' PC. It was a pretty rubbish, sensationalist article consisting mostly of quotes from our man, none of which, of course, were challenged. The worst bit was that he supposedly correctly forecast the windspeeds in last Tuesday's storm (which the poor old Met Office didn't naturally). Now, there isn't much wriggle room in this statement so, if he didn't make such a forecast, he really shouldn't be allowed to get away with this one. Did anyone see this forecast?
Oh, by the way, the main point of the article was that there is 'worse to come' this month - storms that is, and these mostly in the south. So, I hope you guys down there are ready!
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Aye, Scandinavia may have its winters and the Mediterranean its summers but when it comes to horizontal sleet we are surely the best!
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Long way home for me again this evening... twice in a week. Very gusty here in Dundee just now, with horizontal rain..
Who knows, it might ease off ...
Actually a bit sleety up here on the 'hill' (100 m or so)
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Tay Road Bridge is completely closed again according to their website. On XC Weather, however, Riverside is reading gusts of less than 50 mph???
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I must have missed the reference to yesterday's storm in his December forecast(s) then!
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Certainly seems like 59mph sustained winds here - probably just past the peak wind at the moment. I would consult my anemometer but its location is sheltered by the house to southwesterly winds so I think today's maximum gust on it was about 40mph (103mph maximum ever recorded during the late March northerly storm last year). No power cut here so far. Anyway, the main band of precipitation is hitting central Scotland at the moment and seems to be a mix of rain, sleet and hail. Last time I looked, it was 5.1/2.1 but it was dropping quickly from the day's maximum of 7.8C.
Thanks, LS - and BleakMidwinter. That's a mid force 10 then. I don't think it's quite as bad as that here!
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Are those lower speeds on XC weather sustained speeds? - 59 mph at Leuchars??? We don't see those sort of speeds on this side!
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And, finally, we've got some snow here. It's very light - but proper flakes.
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Very dull here now - not expecting much snow this near the coast but you never know. I'm thinking this could turn into a nasty rush hour in some places though.
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The man is a genius
This thread is turning into a bit of classic. It's starting to remind me when we had Ken Ring (of moonbeam fame) on.
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They really need to fill their papers with any 'old pap' they can - big chill temps of 44.6f (strange) in the north and 50f in the south which will be fractionally above average for the time of year - well done Daily Express for trying to justify your previous headlines!!
44.6F! I do hope the authorities are prepared for the likely chaos.
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Well I still think it is tosh to boast that weather and climate can be predicted accurately 100 years from now. I suppose they could be called Mystic Megs or charlatans.
It is the science of useless predictions which is not in fact science as it is based on assumptions and guesswork. It is not science.
No, it is scientific to produce predictions, based on the best understanding of the atmosphere that we have, and including error bands - which is what the IPCC does. Anyone who does say that they can predict what the global average temperature is going to be in 2064, or whenever, is probably a charlatan - we won't know how good a fortune-teller they might be until the time arrives.
Saying that the predictions are pointless because we don't know what future emissions of CO2 are going to be also, well, misses the point. As has been said, there are different scenarios produced by the IPCC based on different possible levels of emissions, the whole idea behind which is to allow policymakers to make decisions. No-one is saying that CO2 levels in such and such a year are definitely going to be at such and such a level. Also by arguing this (that the prediction cannot be made) you are implicitly admitting the connection between CO2 emissions and temperature rise.
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If all the Gulf Stream does is slightly warm the waters around us, why are we 20C or so warmer than Moscow in the winter...?
We are warmer because we are on the eastern side of an ocean. Most of the air that reaches us has to cross that ocean and warms up by the time it gets here. That in itself is more important than the existence of the Gulf Stream - the Gulf Stream makes the water slightly warmer than it would otherwise have been but it is not the most important factor affecting our winters. Remember the Gulf Stream also passes close to Newfoundland!
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Because it proves the suns is behaving unusual and has been for the last 3 - 4 years and thus there's a strong coleration between weak sun activity and cold periods throughout our climate history the last little ice age was akin down to the solar cycle failling to produce sunspots knwon as the Maunder Minimum. So if it's true what's happening now people would fail to acknowledge it because it contradicts global warming completely.
The article you posted a link to claims global temperatures have dropped by 0.7C since 2007. The global average temperature anomaly for 2007 that I have is 0.55 and (so far) for this year it is 0.67. The 30-year running averages for those two years are 0.33 and 0.38, respectively.
I do not, therefore, have any problem in acknowledging the recent lack of sunspots and still thinking that the global temperatures are rising.
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The sun spot is at a minnimum but many refuse to acknowledge this because it doesn't suit their everybody panic and drive an electric car or we're doomed agenda
haha[/quote
Could you please explain that part? Why would anyone refuse to acknowledge a solar minimum?
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A lot of credible sources state that the world reached the peak oil production this year. Peak Coal is apparently scheduled to be reached in 2011. Peak natural gas is scheduled (by some) to be in around 2025.
That might be correct for oil - although all of these things are very hard to predict. I think there is still 'a lot' of coal down there though and would be very surprised if production is anywhere near a peak. Whether you would want to burn it all though is another question.
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It's not over yet!
Chance of the record going again tomorrow or Thursday?
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Oh yeh, medium snow here now too. Too busy trying to understand blocking and stuff to notice. Its getting a wee bit heavy actually. I'll send it right over!!
Well, it hasn't made it here yet - although I can see the orange glow in the east.
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A wake for the snow and ice!! We could all bring a snowball from our gardens and have a sacrificial melting to the snow gods
... and with 'Winter of 2010' t-shirts!
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One thing about this cold spell is that it's great for learning how the models etc. translate into real weather. I still don't know much but it's a lot more than I did a few weeks ago!
Perhaps we should have a big party when it's all over ...
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It doesn't seem obvious, it all depends on where the HP ends up. As long as it is close by we don't need "new" cold air. So something of a hiatus for the next 4-5 days. Time to go back to watching models I think...
Was just watching the BBC and they are still going for the possibility of -20 somewhere this weekend so it looks like they are favouring the 'local cold is enough' option for now.
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Theres no doubt about that SRK.
Right on top of us , probably cold and dry in the immediate short-term. We'd keep the snow cover and depending on how much cloud is wrapped up in it, then we could test some low tempeartures in the interior.
If it sat to the east/north-east of us, then probably bringing a moderated north-sea influence. Depends on the uppers and the cold at the source (Norway, Denmark, Low-countries ?) - but most likely we could end up with a chilly rather than outright cold fetch to the east coast. Immediate east-coast could get some mushing up of existing snow but still with the majority of us holding onto most of it.
Unless we get a direct cold-fetch/good cold uppers though, we're likely to see any High in our immediate proximity begin to mix-in some atlantic/north-sea air over time, so thats got to be a moderating influence I'd think.
Thanks, BT. So there's likely to be a trend towards less cold wherever the high is?
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To pick up on what Snowplough was saying, for quite a few runs now the GFS has been wanting to let warmer air into the developing high over the weekend. However, the other models have the high slighly further north and keep us in an easterly. Presumably that would see the cold continuing? Could a slight change in the position of the high make all the difference?
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'Britain' is frozen apparently. Oh wait, they mean SE England. The world revolves around London, just like it always has and always will.
I get seriously racked off when perfectly good posts get trashed by some pathetic trolling software. Grow up netweather.
-2.8/-5.5; more overnight snow and looking a bit dicey out here.
Indeed, the world. Yesterday the BBC started stringing together stories about cold weather in mainland Europe, N. America and Asia. If it hadn't snowed in (or near) London, they would have ignored what was happening anywhere else!
haha
Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by su rui ke
Yes, but that's the whole point - he's not a harmless eccentric. He gets quoted in the general media as a 'leading meteorologist', which means that when his forecasts are wrong most of the public just puts it down to 'them' getting it wrong again. He also uses his forecasts (and the wider media) to pursue his anti-Met Office agenda. For those reasons, his forecasts deserve close scrutiny.