su rui ke
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Posts posted by su rui ke
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It's just started snowing again here (about 7.30 am in China). It's quite heavy and beginning to lie. This snowfall is forecast to last into tomorrow, so things could get interesting again!
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I see that hundreds of thousands of people in Guangzhou have been stranded and they despatched 10 000 workers to go and clear the lines!!!! Couldn't do that in the UK! LINKY
Some good news then
Yes, today we finally got some lying snow here right down on the coast near Ningbo after more than a week of freezing cold and drizzle. It's all melted by now but there is more forecast for tomorrow - we'll see; it's always very marginal here.
Judging from the TV pictures Nanjing has at least a foot of lying snow and friends said there was snow on the ground in the centre of Shanghai on Sunday, which doesn't happen too often.
It couldn't have happened at a worse time, of course, with millions of people trying to head home for the holiday. Is there anything in particular we can blame all this on? La Nina?
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7146947.stm
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30200-1297233,00.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/US/weather/12/...m.ap/index.html
Severe winter weather continues to grip the US and Canada.
The Northern Hemisphere is in the grip of a cold spell. Snow cover anomalies are well up on recent years, with temperatures well down on the mean.
Meanwhile, in another part of the northern hemisphere (China) things are a little different.
From NOAA's global monitoring pages, some temperature anomalies for the past month:
Guangzhou +1.73
Beijing +1.37
Qiqihar (Heilongjiang) +1.24
Shengxian (nearest station to me) +0.72
Lhasa +2.21
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Isn't it only the sixth warmest since 1850 though?
I think you might be talking about the global average temperature there - it is predicted to be the sixth warmest on record.
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There's absolutely no point looking towards the christmas week, things can rapidly change. If we manage the unimanagable (very cold easterlies) during the second half the CET will fall very quickly, especially considering the CET is so high ATM.
The first half of the month will have a CET around the 7.0c mark.
Sorry but I don't see where a 2.0C drop this week is coming from. Looks like an up-and-down week for temperatures but with the CET eventually settling around 8.0C for the first half.
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I wonder if throwing in some global data might help here. Below are the monthly worldwide (land and ocean) temperature anomalies for this year, as published on NOAA's 'State of the Climate' pages, together with each month's ranking in the series. The anomalies are relative to the 1961-90 means.
Jan +0.36C 13th warmest
Feb +0.53C 6th warmest
Mar +0.55C 7th warmest
Apr +0.45C 8th warmest
May +0.50C 5th warmest
Jun +0.60C 2nd warmest
Jul +0.56C 3rd warmest
Aug +0.54C 4th warmest
Sep +0.56C 4th warmest
I'd be very interested if anyone could explain exactly what series is being used here and whether the complete data set is available anywhere. (I don't think it's on the NOAA site.) Then we could do SF's ranking for each year based on this too!
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Hi su rui ke,
Exciting mild! Many would find that a terminally unpalatable oxymoron! True though. Like you seem to do, I too excited when a record is threatened, warm, or cold. I just don't get any cold ones to get excited about!
Paul
Well, I didn't say that exactly! I actually enjoy most types of cold weather, whether it's over here or back in the UK. However, for the second month in a row - and for the third month out of the last four four(!) - the 'warmest on record' monthly CET looks seriously under threat. I just don't think that should be ignored!
By the way, does anyone know if the date records for the 29th and 31st given on the TORRO site are up to date. At 19.2C and 19.4C, respectively, they're looking shaky too if things go according to plan at the end of the week!
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Still 13.5C on Philip's site up to and including Oct 22nd, and I can't see too much evidence of it being pegged back at the moment.
It's actually down to 13.3C now (up to an including the 23rd). Temperatures look all over the place this week and the GFS forecast temperatures for any particular day are changing by a lot from run to run. However, the overall amount of 'mild' and 'cold' for the next few days is staying roughly constant and it looks like the CET will be down to around 12.9/13.0 by the 28th. If the last 3 days of the month are as mild as currently forecast that will then push the CET back to within a whisker of equalling the record by the 31st. Another exciting end to the month as far as the CET goes!
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I'm going for a seemingly absurd 13.4C. The October record to fall!
And at the moment it looks like we might continue floating around 13.3/13.4 until at least the 25th!
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The long warm spell continues here and it looks like we've just broken the date record of 29.1C.
Ningbo, China 1400 (local time)
Temp 29.7C
Wind S, 1.6 m/s
No rainfall today
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Philip's CET is currently on 13.3C. http://www.climate-uk.com/
I was trying to see what October needs to hit for the UK to have experienced the warmest ever 6 month period? I'm assuming that record is very likely to fall, but I need to trawl through 350 years of data! Where's Mr Data?!
Hi West,
I think it's May-October 1995 with an average of 15.04C. By my calculations we need an October CET of 9.01 to beat that.
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Yep, apologies, you're right with 12.0. 14.61 is needed to make the CET equal to 16.64. I forgot it can be equalled by rounding up as well as down. :lol:
OK, Nick - it is obviously going to be very, very close. It feels strangely like waiting for an election result to come in!
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12.5C for the very good reason that no-one seems to have taken that yet.
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Hi su rui ke,
By my calculations today's CET needs to be 14.61 to equal the record. You posted this message at the same time I posted my estimate of last night's minima: I reckon it's about 8.66.
Hi Nick,
Checking, I think my 11.6 was a bit out, but 12.0C would do it, wouldn't it? If 8.7C is near the mark for the minimum that would mean a CET max of about 15.3C for today would see the record equalled.
(16.71 x 29 + 12.0)/30 = 16.55C
But better if it was a little higher to avoid rounding arguments!
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To just equal the record, using Philip's figures, I reckon today's CET needs to be at least 11.6C - assuming 16.55 counts as 16.6C - or 13.4C if it needs to be at least 16.60 to count as 16.6C.
Does anyone have an estimate of what last night's minimum was?
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Phillip Eden posted the exact figure in the September CET thread for the 1-28th September period at 16.89, making the CET 16.8C as it is rounded down, with a cold night last night and maxima around average today, the CET will most likely drop to 16.5C, when rounded to one decimal place.
16.89 gets rounded down?
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The CET yesterday was 16.89C, so the CET droped by 0.18C, maxima in the CET zone looks to be just under 20C, which is around average, so i would expect the final Manley CET to be 16.5*C.
In summary, September 2006 will most likely not be the warmest on record on the Manley CET series.
Are you sure that was after the end of the 28th? I'm pretty sure it was 16.8 for the 1-28.
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It's not the daytime tmeps that have really amazed me this September, but the very mild night time mins, with some nights having mins above the daytime average, which is really quite amazing!
The rrecord could yet go but indeed the CEt has taken a dip last night which makes it less likely. Either way this has been another amazingly warm month!!!!
But do we know what the figure was at this stage yesterday to 2 decimal places? What I mean is that it might only have fallen from 16.76 to 16.71 - a not too frightening 0.05C.
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What makes a record breaking month? Well one which has consistent high maximums and high minimums. September 06 had both of those. Having temperatures 2.5C above average throughout the whole month is pretty unusual. We just havent had a cool day in September. Temperatures peaking at 28C on the 21st is unusual again but can happen relativly easily if the synoptics are right. September may have been warm but who is to say October isnt going to be cool.
Exactly, it's a bit of both - according to Philip Eden maxima were 2.6C above the mean for the period 1-29 September and minima were 3.2C above. So, you could say that the high minima have contributed more to the final figure than the maxima, but not 'very' much more.
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Looking at Weatheronline, temperatures are already close to what the GFS suggested today's maxima would be, so perhaps 16.8C is still possible after all! It would be nice to break the record properly and not just scrape in by 0.1C!
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West, I was going by an earlier GFS run which showed widespread minima of around 10C tonight. Obviously if tonight's minima are lower than last night's, tomorrow's maxima will need to be correspondingly higher to hold the figure steady. Do you think tomorrow is likely to be warm enough for that?
It's sometimes difficult to get a feel for what's happening at this distance, especially when thing's could come down to a few hundredths of a degree!
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At this very late stage, it still looks like it's too close to call as to whether the (Manley) record will be broken or 'only' equalled. What do people think - 16.6 or 16.7 as a final figure? It doesn't look like any other outcome is possible now.
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Though strictly speaking that figure is as of yesterday. Mind you, was glorious in the west country today with temps up to 22C. Worked outdoors in shirt sleeves and got sunburnt. Amazing!
It's stayed at 16.9 for the 1-26. I agree with Anti-Mild that 16.7 looks the lowest figure likely now - might even be 16.8 if Saturday is warm.
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Speaking of quirks I'll pop something in the 'Yearly CET' thread about the 2002 quirk. http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...pid=788814&
Incidentally, Philip's current figure is 16.95C rounded up to 17C, rather than 'over 17C'. Splitting hairs, I know, but every fraction may count if the record is to fall!
Yes, it will be close - I'm 90% sure the final figure is going to be 16.6 +/- 0.1C now. It could come right down to the last day 'deciding' whether the record falls or not.
I honestly can't see why some people are still talking about it possibly falling by a whole degree in these last 6 days. That would require a CET of 12C from now until Saturday and none of those days looks like having a CET anywhere near as low as that!
:lol:
Heavy snow in China (Merged)
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted · Edited by su rui ke
That's an interesting question. For this month, mean temperatures locally have been slightly below average with a -0.3C anomaly. I would sum it up by saying that the prolonged cold, but not severely cold, spell of the last two or three weeks has been partly offset by a very warm spell earlier in the month - we had maxima over 20C for a couple of days during that time.
The cold anomaly in the far south has been stronger - maxima of around only 6/7 C in Guangzhou this week! However, the cold did not set in there until a little later and they also had a very warm first half to the month and look to have finished slightly above average for the month. The (in)famously cold northeast aslo looks to have been slightly milder than normal.
So, yes, I think the story has been more the persistence of the snowfall in central and eastern China rather than any extreme cold. No doubt some local low temperature records will have been broken though.
The temperature data I've been quoting come form NOAA's excellent Global Temperature Time Series. I'll try and do a more thorough analysis for January when I have a bit more time.
Anyway, here it's still snowing ...