su rui ke
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Posts posted by su rui ke
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A question for native Dundonians: when was the last time you saw chunks of ice floating down the Tay at Dundee?
Definitely in January 1982. There might have been some in December 1995 - I saw a lot of ice on the Tay at Perth then - but I'm not sure. You're not saying you saw some today are you?!
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Its one of the setups that the MO get wrong time and time again for these parts (they get this one wrong over decades , you'd think they'd learn). We're tucked in under Fife, Tayside/Angus, the Eastern Grampians /Aberdeenshire in this situation. Unless the flow goes just E of NE that means we won't get a sniff of it.
Though there's a band of showers out to the east stretching almost to Aberdeen that looks like it's getting quite organised to me. Might be something for a few of us in the east later?
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But by the time it reaches here are we not expected to be within the sub 528 dam line with around -7 to -10c 850s which means it should fall as snow pretty much anywhere and everywhere it reaches. Dont think the faroes have the cold uppers yet and given they are small islands you would perhaps expect it to be more sleety. (having a guess)
Right - I don't think the Faroes ever get very cold for long. A bit like Shetland with less sun (in winter). It doesn't look like the most active cold front ever though. I'm looking more to the showers later in the week than to this.
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I come bearing Fax charts hot off the press:
A nice example of how troughs are likely to enhance precipitation during the coming days.
The 120 chart is good also, bringing in an fairly weak easterly flow for most, though perhaps still strong enough to bring snow showers a few miles inland.
I think the important think with this chart is that the high isn't sliding southeast, and the lows to the south are quite a bit stronger than those to the north, which means that the most likely outcome for the weekend onwards (from this chart) is the high moving back northwest or staying where it is, which would mean the continuation of the cold. Of course by the weekend, many of us will have become sick and tired of the snow!
The only thing that would make the outlook look better is for the precipitation tomorrow to be moved 15 miles further north between 10 and midnight on the 18Z NMM
LS
Good grief! The 528 dam line's almost in North Africa!
Also, what other signs do you think we should start looking for if we want to work out (guess?) what's to happen after the weekend? Last time I looked at the models, there was definitely some erosion of the cold going on. (Still a long way out of course.)
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And something else I hadn't since the cold winters of the 80's ... which is where the roads have been gritted, then rather than going to slush and melt, the end result on many roads has just been the creation of industrial quantities of that kind of demarera sugar composite of snow/grit. Pavements=whiite, roads=demarera sugar. No surface melt at all really, the surfaces are approaching the permafrost stage
In noticed that today too - and no sound of water dripping or running into drains. Nice ...
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That's a pretty good succinct summary
So, in that case, although from the Countryfile forecast you would have got the idea that it was going to stay cold, wasn't Mr Corbett possibly underplaying it a tad? What about night-time temperatures for example? All he said was it wouldn't get much above freezing by day.
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So, if I've got this right, the next few days has a cold front crossing the country from the north tomorrow night bringing heavy snow to some. After that low pressure forms in the southern North Sea and sits there for a few days. This pulls in a freezing cold easterly or north-easterly with snow showers. The 850 temperatures are close to -10 much of the time.
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Aye, later-on tomorrow looks likely to be when the major action starts to get itself together...Generally, I prefer the Fax charts to the model runs - they have human imput!
Nothing to worry about along the coasts (assuming you want snow rather than rain) tomorrow night? The snow risk charts suggest not anyway!
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Yup, checking through the records , both Edinburgh and Durham reported 30 cms on Feb 11th 1978 ... so Dundee was reporting the same then ... all convective snow from NE England through to east-central Scotland. I remember that spell vividly (but enough of nostalgia...)
So my recorded 40 cms was probably measured in an area of "multi-storey flat vortex" produced snow LOL !
Sawel, my 50 cm was measured in one of the highest parts of the city but I would say estimating 30 cm for the city centre on that occasion (1980) is reasonable. I was just saying, as By-tor's figures also show, that along the east coast it's quite possible to get around a foot of snow from these showers if they last more than a day or two.
In February 1987, I think there was also around 30 cm, although I had to go back to uni in Edinburgh at the weekend when it all started and before the snow had reached its maximum depth. (That was some journey back!) 1991 was not all that severe here - its fame is due to how bad it was down south - although there was snow, of course. I don't think it ever got deeper than 15-20 cm.
Back to today and its all very quiet here - literally - now that my neighbour has given up his fruitless attempt to get his car up our street!
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Well today has had a very different feel to it here and the first day of this spell that the traffic has had real problems within the city. There's not much happening at the moment but it looks like there is plenty of potential in the next few days. For me, to be a real east-coast event it would have to produce around 30 cm of snow. I saw that several times in the late 70s/early 80s including early February 1980, when I clearly remember measuring the snow at 50 cm. No-one ever seems to mention that time however as I think it only affected Dundee, Angus and north-east Fife, although it was generally cold across the rest of the country. It needs a few days of these showers to get up to those sort of depths though!
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I hate to mention it but that little warmish sector that's supposed to pass over Scotland tomorrow night is still there in the 12Z GFS. No mention of anything slighly warmer in the TV forecasts though. In fact, they are talking about it getting colder again, presumably because of the air that comes in behind that low.
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We've just had a shower of - well, something. I think it was mostly hail! Not very heavy though.
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I can see another big shower coming. Just give it a few minutes ...
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Huge big fat juicy flakes. lol need to calm down kids think im nuts!!!
Yes, I've just walked through the city centre and the new snow is lying easily everywhere there is no salt. So far then, no problems even at sea level! The showers are getting heavier and, like Mondy says, the sky is starting to take on that 'east-coast-snow-event' look. We'll see what tomorrow brings but even if it goes a few degrees above during the day, you usually gain more than you lose in these situations!
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Just seen the one o'clock weather bulletins, and what a difference between the Scottish weather and the national weather.
Reporting Scotland had temperatures in Inverness tonight of -12'c (possibly -15'c inland) while the national weather said it would be milder with temeratures only falling to -2'C.
This is the same TV station giving out majorly contrasting information.
I know the National forevcast concentrated ont he snow in England/Wales.. As that does seem to be th emain event today, but to have such varied temperatures in the forecasts is strange
I agree. I think it's probably the most bizarre piece of forecasting I've ever seen on TV. It's probably partly down to the national forecaster not bothering to add enough detail to her comments for Scotland though.
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Looks like we are also now in the less cold air. Temperatures have suddenly risen to just around freezing.
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Interesting to see to what extent this air now makes its way up and into ... all points west and north of here, as FifeNess/Leuchars are still reporting -7c as I write. Fife will be next in line I'd imagine, certainly at the coast.
Certainly hasn't made it up here yet and I think this morning is actually the coldest yet. Leuchars was reading -9.1 at one point - you don't often see that!
Also, the met office seem to have backtracked on today being a 'mild' day here. On Sunday they were forecasting a maximum of 5, which had changed to -1 by yesterday evening. Maybe we'll get away with just a brief thaw tomorrow!
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Hasn't really effected the snow cover, guess its so solid from yesterday. MO/ Beeb forecast looks good for tomorrow.
Yes, according to the fax charts, troughs running down form the north could bring something for just about everyone. Could be very interesting in the west in particular, with a small low just off the coast!
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I thjink we both have the same problem The wind has now swung round and coming off the sea plus "mild" uppers. Your -9 was a surface temp, very low because yesterday the wind was west (no warming effect from the sea) and snow covered mainland Scotland is very cold. Thing look set to improve in a couple of days!! Also remember that we are presntly in a "mild" spell
I dont know what fell here last night but we have a couple of cms of solid ice/snow on the roads and the cars!!
Started off as a mixture of just about everything, then heavy snow and now - I think - it's raining. If it would just turn dry we'd be OK for keeping our snow cover.
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Yes it snowed when I was at work in Dundee that day.
Thanks Hiya, and others. Looks like it was eight in a row then!
Getting a bit foggy here now. That's something new!
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Yes, yesterday was a CSWD here too - but I'm not sure if it ended a run of six or eight days. (Anyone know if it snowed at all in Dundee on Friday 18th?) Whichever it is, it's an impressive run of days with snow falling.
Having lying snow here for a week or so isn't that unusual - though I know Monifieth and other places near the river might be different. If it does get to two weeks, I'll be impressed!
Anyway, looks like the rain/snow failed to make it up here at all and it's beautiful and crisp today. Perfect for a Boxing Day walk!
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Remarkable consistency at this range from the GFS:
06Z:
12Z:
This would bring more cold and snow to many parts of Scotland over Hogmanay.
Looks like 1978! Or have I got the wrong year?
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They've been repeating this 'worst in 20 years' line about the road conditions in Scotland ad nauseam on the BBC. It's certainly nowhere near as bad here as in 1993 (Braer Storm), 1995 (Christmas), 2001 (February) ... How would others rank this current spell for conditions in their area in general?
I am enjoying it though - just don't think it's particularly severe (yet).
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It has just started snowing lightly here to the West of Dundee.
You got there before me! It's just suddenly got heavier anyway. Should be in Fife ... about now?
Scotland Cold Spell Discussion Part 14
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I'll need to go and have a look! Wonder if the docks have any ice in them yet?