Brass_Monkeys
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Satellite imagery of the small Low just of the East Coast of Scotland. Doesn't appear to be that much PPN associated with it just yet. Could do with lots on its Eastern side so as it spins it slingshots it over the hills into the NW http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur
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Apparently only 30 and 40 are used with PROB. Anything higher they use TEMPO. Guess I didn't see 50-70 PROB after all. That's the trouble with Tafs - all letters and numbers. I got the info here: http://www.ap-i.net/meteo/tafexpl.html It's quite surprising how much info they contain when you start to decipher the code!
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Yes I've noticed they're often at 30 or 40. I can't recall ever seeing 90. I've definitely seen 60 and perhaps a 70 although I'm not certain.
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Only %30 probability so low confidence
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Yes I agree. However, I prefer to temper my expectations with experience. Like you say there's a reason the Met have a yellow warning over the region. Probably just erring on the side of caution, though. I hope I'm wrong and have to go bollocko in the snow!
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Looking very good for Scotland,N England, East Coast and NI. The SW and parts of Wales may also fair well overnight. There's probably more chance of some snow running into the Midlands than there is our region. Will be a case of radar viewing and touring the snowy regional threads later.
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The East of the country have yellow warnings extending out until Thursday next week. I think it will be those living furthest East in our region who may see some snow tonight. Having better elevation will help also . If I get snow cover tonight I'll dance naked on it in the street!
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The MetO are forecasting a small low to come close to the NE later today, maybe that's it? (Hence the increased risk of snow showers tonight)
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Radar says I'm under the PPN but struggling to see anything falling. Definitely not snowing. Very fine drizzle perhaps? **Edit - definitely rain 😒
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Showers moving back into the region from the NE. There looks to be a streamer in the Irish Sea feeding across N Wales into the Midlands. Could this invigorate the PPN from the NE and vice versa and aid development in the region? Shame temps are a little high at 3.5C DP 1.0C
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Couple of inches from last nights feature. Everywhere nice and white.
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Heavy snow
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Fine light/mod soft hail/snow atm
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**Edit- heavy snow
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Just up the road fr St.helens and now have snow falling, moderately.
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😜😄
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Plenty of showers this evening but mainly of rain. Some hail mixed in during the heavier bursts. Perhaps things will turn a bit more wintry later on... ...or perhaps not. I certainly won't be loosing any sleep over it.
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Well no need to open the curtains here, I can tell you it's frequent rain showers rattling the glass amid a howling gale. After hail and snow around 4.30pm I thought it would be snow all the way tonight. Lots of activity out West which is likely to carry on through the night. Should be some nice accumulations around the region by tomorrow morning.
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Just had quite an intense soft hail shower and now snow showers
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It's looking like the snow showers will only really start to get going after dark tomorrow. This should help tilt the scales towards more favourable conditions regards accumulative snowfall. If areas do fair badly thru Wednesday/Thursday, in terms of lying snow, conditions still look favourable through the weekend and early next week for further snowfalls to occur.
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I'm pretty sure there are no exclusions based on locale in any of the regional threads. It's kinda like popping next door for a cuppa with your neighbour. ...Or it should be!
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"I don't understand it?!?!...The models all predicted snowmagedon in the Northwest!!!"
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GFS 18z certainly looking good for the NW. All eyes on the radar tomorrow night and into Thursday.
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I don't understand why people seem to give so much credence to computer generated forecast apps?? I've just entered my location in 4 such apps which have returned 4 different outlooks for Thursday's weather. My advice would be simply to follow the latest MetO forecast (not the app) and read through the Model Thread.
