kev f
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Posts posted by kev f
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Anvil on Leicester storm well into Derbyshire now
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Leicester storm approaching here. Quite impressive as it’s still some distance away, seeing lightning and hearing faint thunder
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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
lightning there from cell to my East,
yea i saw it light the top of the tower
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Just now, Weather-history said:
YES!!!!!!!
direct hit lol, slightly jealous
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16 minutes ago, Supacell said:
Still cloudy/misty here but it remained cloudy here until just after midday yesterday and the storms still developed. Looks like I am well placed under a convergence zone today. Currently 13c with a dew point of 13c.
Yep, sun is trying to make an appearance here now, patches of blue sky too. Are you staying local today?
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Clowns to left of me jokers to the right here I am......
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And yet again between Tamworth and burton it’s fired up. 15 mins on the radar went from blues to purples, rumbling away as I type
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6 minutes ago, Supacell said:
Unfortunately all seems to have gone quiet now. I say unfortunately as I am near Sudbury and was hoping to catch it. Still, early in the day yet and a good start to have storms already.
Yes it has gone quiet. I can see the cauliflower top of the cell that I was hoping for a direct hit, but it would seem it’s going to miss to my east this time. I don’t think it’s electrified anyway.
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6 minutes ago, Ryukai said:
IF that thing stops back building eastwards and starts moving forwards properly again It'd end up being a direct hit for me now.
Yes it seemed to stall on radar lol
passed to my west about 10miles away I would think, very loud thunder coming from it although I can’t hear any now
7 minutes ago, ItIsGee said:this is your storm!
The one out of Leicester? Hope so looks very interesting
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17 minutes ago, Supacell said:
Cell between Tamworth and Burton is producing, and more cells building to the east of it.
Yes it is, sat in my garden listening to it @ Swadlincote listening to it, also just heard a very deep rumble from my southeast which must be the one just to the west of Leicester that appears to be on a direct hit for me
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Are these storms going to be breaking out late afternoon early evening in our neck of the woods? @Supacell
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I watched the first batch circa 1.30am from Swadlincote,the storm area roughly over Rugeley to the west, the lightning was pretty much constant from that all the while keeping an eye on the area from the south approaching me for a direct hit. The gust front when it arrived was very strong, trees blowing all over the place, had to retreat indoors after because of the rain, but great lightning show, one close CG with shotgun thunder. Been along time since I’ve seen a nighttime show like that, epic stuff.
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couple of rumbles of thunder approaching here
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this is my view looking south east.
excuse the poor pic quality snapped on the phone
slowly slowly coming this way
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thread resurrection.spotted this today (well my 5 yr old daughter saw it first)
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snowing in Coalville, although the sun is still out. Can see the dark clouds to the north, been watching them roll ever so slowly closer all morning.
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1 hour ago, IDO said:
Not only the margin of error that FI gives but it's the 06z and taking that seriously after D7 is going to lead to a lot of disappointments! Anyway both the op and control have little support from the GEFS and are technical outliers after D10:
Added to that both the hi res runs have the perfect setup^^^ with an upper low setting up just west of the Azores aiding two wave WAA towards Greenland. This feature has maybe one other ensemble member support and the rest of the members are rather poor in comparison:
Mean:
The main clusters at D15 are 40% Atlantic and 30% UK high. The GFS is probably too early with the amplification re GP's lag of three weeks, but we would accept it if the hi-res have spotted an early bonus!
long time lurker so go easy!! am i right in assuming that upper low west of the azores is a consequence of what GP is referring to when he says as soon as the westerlies hit the sub-tropical Atlantic that will flip the NAO negative? ie low presure in the sub tropical atlantic aiding WAA north and setting up a High pressure in our locale thus the NAO flipping negative...??
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I'll take that!! Hope you get some good photos, I'll just be watching out the windowI do rate our area tonight to see something. My concern is whether it will be big intense thunderstorms or just an area of thundery rain. There is plenty of elevated instability, deep layer shear and most models this morning do show our area under some heavy precipitation. Watch this mornings forecast, a nice yellow blob across our region
Of course taking the blobs literally is rather futile, but it is looking good.
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But surely squids are damp too 😠its been a long week and I'm storm starved.squib kev damp squib
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@ supacell
Are you rating the chances for our area? The last bbc forecast that I watched last night, seemed to me to be a bit of a damp squid for us with most of the heavier stuff out to the west across the welsh borders, Shrewsbury area tracking north, with just rain over us and not alot of anything really further east.
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AcCas firing up to the north east and in the distance beyond them bigger cumulus's.
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think it's possible for Thunderstorms to break out .. particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday in England and Wales... but not exclusive to those 2 days.. as then on Friday-Sunday storms seem likely... ~ then into the following week.. looks like something to keep an eye on to!! With another Spanish Plume gathering.. the question is.. will it hit us.. ~ it is far off!
yeah , i think western side of the british isles Tuesday into Wednesday then more nationwide next weekend as the Atlantic breaks through? after that? wouldn't like to say
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Well, it looks like all the components are coming together for first SW England, Wales and NW England through Tuesday Night and then through Friday Night and Saturday quite widely across England and Wales as the trough moves in from the Atlantic. Now, it is just my usual question, do I have a chance? Last time it ended up as a damp squib but looking at the charts, this is highly unlikely to end up like that this time as more convection seems to be present much further west this time. Fingers crossed!
i think your chances are alot higher than last time. you were relying on imported storms from France last time but these storms later next week will be associated with a small low travelling up from Biscay so they are more likely to survive the trip across the sea. next week is reminding me of plumes in the 90's with the small "heat" lows coming up from iberia in the southerly flow.
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light snow here. Radar not looking too bad either ,precipitation seems to be expanding?
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted