Village

Another occasion of a severe blizzard in southeast Essex was the 30th December 1978. The wind turned northeasterly and severe gale force. After a couple of snow grain showers giving a dusting overnight on the 28th it was dry all day until about seven pm. Then the temperature was -5C, the wind was storm force ten northeasterly. Powder snow was screaming down the length of the street where I lived in Hockley. It was like dust and it couldnt settle with the strength of the wind which tore at the snow grains and scraped all surfaces clear. But it started to pile up in the eddies. The storm lasted for seventeen hours. All night the wind screamed and the snow became so heavy at times that one couldnt see across the street, in the street light it was just a horizontal blur of powder dust, like a heavy cloud or fog blowing sideways. In the morning the scene was unbelievable. drifts, drifts and more drifts, like the dunes on a beach. Some drifts would start from just one gate post and extend forty feet stretched out in a long ribbon down wind until it faded away into the snow cover. There was always a smaller drift infront of the objects and a curve around on both sides without actually touching the object itself. It was the first time I had seen this.....drifts from the roofs of cars and all around them but never touching.. Really wierd. In the fields the drifts were all hedgerow hight with nothing in the fields. The drifts lasted until March 1979. That was a bad winter, it snowed on and off for three months. School was closed every other week because of snowfall and drifts. But that one storm was fierce. The fiercest I have ever witnessed.

Yes, I will do, will probably have to scan them first. Keep looking at this thread and you will see them come up in a few days.

Well, I think that older and more experienced members here like myself will tend to use experience layered on top of the opp runs. My gut feeling is that H/P will tend to shift north and east to bring colder weather with the coldest air in the south. But I think that the real emphasis of change has less to do with temperatures and more to do with precipitation. I see a complete change to dry weather or very dry weather for weeks. Possibly months overall going into spring. Thats what the overall emphasis of greatest change should be IMHO. But at times of minimum insolation....lets say the next four weeks forward, a symptom of less humidity in the lower atmosphere will lead to less cloud, more radiation cooling and therefore much colder.

Northeasterly

I know one thing....I have been lucky enough to have lived through the deepest snowfall in this country. The snow lay for almost three weeks. It was January 1987 I think if my memory serves me well. I lived on the seafront in southeast Essex with my parents at the time and the wind turned northeasterly and strengthened one Saturday afternoon. Snow showers set in later which became heavier and heavier. Some with thunder and lightning and a mini tornado which swept down the beach picking up a spout of snow from the ground. It was great. The snow after the first afternoon was only laying to a depth of about four or five inches with drifts of 18 inches. Then the next day the wind dropped off and the showers faded during the morning. At dusk it started to snow again, but this time it was continuous. It became heavier and heavier during the evening and the wind was variable. Temperatures were about -2C on the coast. The snow became ridiculously heavy at times and it snowed all night until about mid morning on the Monday. I went downstairs to the porch to leave and try to get to work at about 7 am and it was still dark. The scene that confronted me was unbelievable. I couldnt see much street light through the glass porch door, only at the top half. I opened the front door and was immediately confronted with a huge wall of snow. I thought it was strange to have had drifting snow without wind. I was wrong! It wasnt driftied snow!!! its was completely level snow of 38 inches in depth!!! a meter of level snow! My sister's MGB roadster was parked in the road outside and all you could see was a gentle mound of snow in the road. I couldnt possibly walk in it ...nobody could. So I got my Dad's waders out which come up to your chest and tried to walk to the station! It was impossible, one huge step at a time to lift one leg as high as i could up to waste hight to put it down again and then gradually i rose up on the compacted snow with each foot step. I couldnt go far, had to turn back. Later that day the wind got up to gail force from the east, northeast and it blew all this powder snow into huge drifts. One house at the end of the beach had a drift to the roof and you could walk in an eighteen inch gap between a sheer virtigle wall of snow that went right up two floors to the guttering. All the roads became blocked, but nobody could get their cars out anyway. The roads stayed blocked for a week until the council bulldozers managed to dig a five mile route to free up a carriageway. I have photos of the fifteen foot drifts and drifts to the top of buses. Somebody walked across the corner of the bonnet of my sisters car because they didnt know the car bonnet was there !! The snow was absolutely ridiculous....38 inches of level !! never seen anything like it since, thats 96.5cm. On the Thursday I think, the temperature in the morning was -15C. The North Sea froze to about half a mile off shore and where the sea ice ended there was sea smoke. It was amazing to see. I watched lightning from a Cumulonimbus dumping snow over the Isle of Sheppey during this time and snapped a photo of that looking across the sea ice. Unbelievable time.

-0.2C deviation from the January CET average

If I could be that precise I would already be on a humongous party on my 200 foot motor yacht in the Mediteranean full up with booze, girls and best mates. You are welcome to come aboard if you wish, but you are going to have to be a real party animal!.

I see more of a Scandinavian based H/P with a coll over the southwest between the Azores H/P which will eventually break down. Coldest air in the southeast of the UK going forward and warmest in the northwest.

I think what is key to take on board now is that the southeast is going to completely reverse in terms of rainfall. Going forward it will be dry for a considerable time. weeks, possibly months overall.

Nevertheless, I think there is an issue with official CET stats regarding the set of comparisson data used and how this changes perceptions . Why is it that the rolling averages used keeps altering? Its almost as if a decission is made to cherry pick so that a particular outcome can be demonstrated, why else make the change. Sometimes they use 1960/.90 rolling, others its the 1970/2000, but there is a case for using 1980/2010 last thirty year rolling average now! Clearly, if one uses a different temperature set as a comparission then this will change the outcome. This has been demonstrated with global temperatures where using a different set of thirty year rolling either shows a .5C rise in global temps, a much reduced .25C rise which is negligable or a zero degree change demonstrating no global warming whatsoever. So we need clarity on this issue.

Yeah, it does clearly show now that 2012 was another year showing cooler than average temperatures.

Firstly the last decade and a half has not shown that warming has continued. The Meto has stated that there has been no significant warming over recent years globally, its at a standstill. http://www.publicser...still-continues Further, any warming that has been noted at urban sites has been adjusted and dont forget that downwind of a large urban area will also demonstrate warming as the enhanced temperatures from the upwind urban area will have a signal, just as a large area of water does have an effect. The gratest warming UHI signal has been nocturnally. This shows up clearly in the official statistics over the last thirty years. Check it out, its there in the official data. If the adjustment was correct then it wouldnt be noticable, but it is. Harve, on 04 January 2013 - 00:01 , said: "- I like to compare the CET with a consistent average rather than a rolling average, but I admit that using 1960-1990 is quite arbitrary. Note that that period isn't the coldest set of data, however. Almost the entirety of the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries were colder in the UK, as well as the first thirty years of the 20th century (the Little Ice Age formed only a small part of these centuries). Furthermore, comparison with an average does not change how much we are warming or cooling by over X years, it just emphasises a certain timeframe. And yes, instrumentation has changed over the years but there's nothing to suggest this would make the temperature record any less accurate. I think you're clutching at straws here to suit your agenda." I dont know what agenda you think I have, I dont have an agenda, I am not paid by the UK government who is the major beneficiary of the new climate taxes. However, anyone who benefits from the government payroll cannot claim the same. What do you think? I am glad you agree with me that using differing sets of rolling averages is not an ideal way to compare data. Its not an ideal situation is it? So who decides which data sets to commpare to? Further, does this not change the trend signal?

IMO Its actually been worse than the official temps would indicate. All the figures that are given out have been adjusted. Basically you are not seeing the real data. The CET figures are adjusted to take into account the effects of the Urban Heat Island (UHI effect). The rate of adjustment is contentious because a body or someone must make a decission about how much to change the data. I personally think that the adjustment is not enough to allow for an accurate comparison of the data. Another point to make is that instrumentation has changed over the years. Further, what data are we comparing today's CET's with? Is it the rolling thirty year average? If so then why are we comparing the data with the coldest set of data from the 1960's? All this effects the rate of cooling which we are officially fed by the Government....or the Met Office...its the same thing.

the winter of 1962/63 was before my time, but I remember being one of a group at school in the winter of 1979 when we rolled the biggest snow roller and left it infront of Mr Miller's blue Reliant Robin car in the teacher's car park. We all were called out in assembly the next morning and made to stand and stay behind to meet the Headmaster who told us that because of our stupidity that Mr Miller couldnt move his car and therefore was put out to get home and not in that morning! We paid for it with the stick. Another thing the younger generations dont know is that if we get another very cold winter many cars wont work because there are so many more diesel vehicles today and the fuel will start to solidify in the tanks. Back in the 1970's lorry drivers would light fires under their diesel fuel tanks to warm the fuel so that they could start their engines. It of course was a really dangerous thing to do, but it had to be done if one needed to get going and get warm.

Its all perfectly normal. The models are always poor with the synthetic runs at times of maximum and minimum insolation. I have said it for years and complained to the Meto that they are spending too much time model watching and not enough time watching conditions at the Hpa 1000 level. Thats what counts at this time of minimum insolation. Four years ago I argued with the Meto that they should stop their Long term forcasting because it was making them look ridiculous. They did. As for our conditions here in the southeast....its all typical for this time of year. Highs of 11C in a cloudy southwesterly blow is all too common. We also know that as we head towards February that its all very common to experience freezing conditions from the East as High Pressure can tend to build over scandiland. If anyone dare suggest that the flip-flopping from a soutwesterly warm, wet and windy to a easterly dry and cold at this time of year is abnormal and linked to extreme weather changes due to man made climate change then they really havent got a clue. Both types of weather can and do effect the UK in January and February .... its all perfectly normal and the big contrasts in temperature and weather types are simply typical due to a frigid continental air mass being nothing like a warm tropical maritime airmass. It simply means that the wind changed direction and has nothing to do with theories of man made climate change bringing extreme weather events. Its always happened. Welcome to a typical winter in the southeast of the UK.

This is exactly what happened ten years ago when the green lobby linked the lack of sand eels to global warming theories and the lack of Cod stocks in the North Sea. They blamed man driving motor cars burning fossil fuels. It turned out to be the most obvious answer which they had deliberately overlooked....over fishing. The sand eels were and still are being over fished and ten years ago (probably still) were caught by the Norwegians to fuel power stations. The Cod stocks didnt migrate north either, having banned over fishing they are now back again in good numbers.

Shouldnt be a long term issue because IF the climate in these parts continues slightly warmer then the tree line will rise accordingly and leave the Pine Beetles behind.

"Past weather" means its history, thats what "past" means....therefore its already been experienced. So I dont understand your question about "have never experiendence it" Of course one has...its past right!

Watch out Scotland and some parts of northern England between Christmas and the New Year!

We already have the answer: The answer to the universe and everything is 42 ! I personally have an open mind and the more that I have discovered and continue to discover, I am finding that I dont totally agree with the currently heald Darwin theory of evolution through millions upon millions of years. I believe that things can change rappidly. In seconds a new blueprint can exist for all of life and new life and new species can change the world within a few years. I also dont believe that humans evolved from Apes in the way that Darwin explained.

The latest GFS ops run is trying to suggest that a much colder upper pool is coming further southwest around new year. As I said earlier today we do need to watch this development carefully. Quite how the Met Office can jump from a December prediction of very cold earlier in the month to a warm wet and windy for a whole month forward beats me. They should know better IMO. The runs synthetics are least predictable at times of maximum and minimum insolation....thats right now. One cannot reliably predict one month ahead based on a ten day forward synthetic run.

Well I have had three days of snow this December and the deluge was enough to screw up all the major roads in Essex. It was white everywhere. By the time it eventually melted a few days later we then got hit again with freezing conditions day and night and the hoar frosts brought back the white christmas look again for days. It was absolutely bitter. Even Southend on Sea on the coast was -4C at 11am on one day. We had three days on the trot in Essex with temps below zero all day. Its only just warming up now.

Yeah, doesnt look as if there is any real winter weather on the cards over the holiday season for the bulk of us. GFS and ECM seem to be pretty much in agreement that an upper cold pool will slip down into Scotland where it will produce more snow for the upland regions. But thats about it. We should look again after the weekend and see how these models develop the situation. What usually happens in these instances is that the upper cold air can sink down to the east of England as H/P builds north out in the Atlantic. That will bring a cold northerly down across the UK and wintry showers down the east coast for a time....but this wont be until the first few days of January, so we will have to watch the models.

I guess your winter last year was exceptionally unusual if you didnt get a frost during the whole winter. Down here in the south we had severe frosts at the beginning of the winter just like this year and the Met Office issued a category three (the most severe) warning of the extremely low temperatures which we did experience again during February this year. We had lots of snow in Essex too. They even threatened to close Gatwick airport because there was so much snow at one stage if memory serves me well.

Yeah Gavin, its a good analogy I think comparing this winter to last years if one is hoping for another cold snap in February. We have already had a week or two of very cold temperatures ...down to -12C in Scotland and even -10C quite widely here in England. I have had three ice days already this season where the temp didnt rise above zero. So as it warms up this weekend and continues warm for a few weeks this will simply bring the temps back to the average again. The winter is all to play for though.