IDO

MattHugo81 Just looking at the medium to long term (days 7 to 14) & a new signal developing for perhaps pressure to rise across the UK near mid-month 03/03/2012 13:04 & http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&DAY=20120302 Yes, signs are now tilting towards a mild settled March, after the next 5-7 days. That will be nice, as this week was very pleasant.

First Summer forecast I have viewed: http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvcaptainbob.php?ID=304 Although it is for April & May, it does suggest that the long range models indicate that as we enter May the HP will have less influence with a LP's dominated scenario for much of the month and heading into the start of June and probably beyond? Who would have thought it!

Except that the latest GFS 06z (normal caveats apply) shows a total contrast to the 0z, with HP dominant throughout FI, mild temps and NO SNOW. It is of course interesting to look at FI, but at the moment it is rather pointless as the models have not got a clue, swinging wildly from one run to another. It looks like there is going to be cold moving down from the pole and there is a possibility it may influence our weather but I suspect it will be on the periphery as usual, and PM excursions may be our best shot of some wintry stuff. However there is a solid chance, which is better than December & January, when there was little hope, so you never know.

The 0z GFS and the ECM show a very short cool spell with little wintry weather and then the Azores High is dominant right through to the end of FI (18th March). The only saving grace is that the Op run is in the milder cluster. However the way this winter has gone it seems long odds for the UK to get anything cold before next winter. Every ten days a cold spell is modelled and every time it is a blink and you will miss it event. The lack of viewers suggest many members now realize that this is the story of this winter and no amount of strat warming is going to help; other variables are just too dominant. The truth is out there and the stats don't lie, its been a great end of winter for cold, that is, if you are based on the European mainland!

The GFS 12z today is about the worse run since a cooler outlook has been modelled. Hopefully the ensembles will shed some light, and this does not become a trend: http://nwstatic.co.u...e1cfc31ccd7074; The above is at the end of FI but is representive of the whole run after Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

Wasn't Cheese Rice statement based on the pub run? Most of the recent GFS output (0z and 12z) have been Azores High with PM excursions. So no backtrack as far as I am concerned. The GFS Ensembles for the 0Z suggests uppers are neither very cold or warm after early next week: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=ens;date=20120301;time=00;file=t850London;sess=dbe5fd71633e4d1293d02f25f923019b Scatter between -5 and +5 which suggests little to get excited about, but there is promise at the end of FI (again). However with little inter model support at the moment we will have to wait till after the weekend before the situation is more demonstrable.

As with most of this winter FI promises a cold evolution but as we get to a reliable time frame the cold gets pushed east with each run. That's why I never take any promise at face value, it has been a winter of discontent as far as wintry weather has been concerned. Late in FI on GFS 06z there is another brief PM excursion highlighted, however this one will probably have the same fate. By mid March: http://nwstatic.co.u...230fc699007e47; Been there, done that, got the T-Shirt, again.

GFS 06z: March 1st 2m temps: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120223;time=06;ext=177;file=ukmaxtemp;sess=d5ab142fb1ae7a1b2cfdfe29b0ce2c5a; March 9th (end FI) 2m temps: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120223;time=06;ext=372;file=ukmaxtemp;sess=d5ab142fb1ae7a1b2cfdfe29b0ce2c5a; Average in between so looking good for a nice Springlike March.

GFS 12z for the next 10 days gives most of the UK settled, HP based weather with mild temps. Then in FI the jetstream goes AWOL (to our north) allowing the return of average temps. with a more unsettled outlook. Little sign of the return of anything wintry in this scenario: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120221;time=12;ext=384;file=h850t850eu;sess=9b8ea6e0c99de5df0383fc1b6d18e002; Another HP closing in from our SSW. Any PV action a thousand miles plus to our east and west: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120221;time=12;ext=384;file=npst850;sess=9b8ea6e0c99de5df0383fc1b6d18e002; There is definitely a Global fall in temps from around 26th onwards: http://policlimate.com/climate/gfs_t2m_bias.html So it is likely that the UK temps next week will not be maintained at this week's relatively high marks. However the real cold is kept at bay, per the current GFS run. Yes, time for changes, but if anything, we are going to be even less favoured than when we missed out on the Jan/Feb strat. warming event.

Thanks for all the regular contributors to the strat. thread. They forecast the PV split and the accompanying cold to our latitude. It just shows that even when such events occur it is no panacea for cold over the UK. It transpires that the clues we were given in December-January of a robust jetstream and an omnipresent Azores High was prescient in the UK not being visited by the PV discharge. Its is however another indicator for future forecasting. GFS (12z) remains consistent with the same pattern till the end of week one in March and at the end of FI it appears the same scenario: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120219;time=12;ext=384;file=h850t850eu;sess=a2154ab2040af147954cd8f5fcfa24ab; Plenty of cold uppers on our latitude but all too far to our east or west. The strat. warming event for early March, will in all probability be kept at bay from our shores again. That is, based on these charts and the other synoptics that have precluded the cold, so far this winter. From an IMBY perspective the winter has been poor for cold. Three periods of snow, all dissipated within the following 12 hours, with under ten frosts. Even when we faced the easterly, apart from one breezy cold day, it was a rather slack affair. I do not think it is a trend to milder winters though, I suspect it was just a missed opportunity, with background noises that drowned out our chance of sharing in the European mainland cold. Well hopefully.

Update on snow forecast tonight by Simon Keeling: http://www.weatherweb.net/temppics/uksnow.jpg He admits that the snow was grossly over estimated.

I dont know where some of these forecasts are coming from. According to the BBC there is no chance of snow for the south or SE. Its angle is towards the SW and its current axis is about 100 miles west of London!

No snow according to the Met further than around east of Swindon. Mainly the M5 corridor. Dying out midday and nothing in the South or SE or East.

Just watched the BBC weather and they are saying that there is still uncertainty for Friday to how far east the snow will go. They have it west of London, but with the proviso it could change...

Snow for Friday: http://www.metoffice...g-rain-and-snow Nothing for SW or SE or North of manchester.

weatherschool System now starting to show loss of eastwards momentum so may be several hours worth of snow left over central and east England. 04/02/2012 19:30 (tweet)

"MattHugo81 Distinct lack of actual heavy precip passing over E Lancs so far has resulted in limited snowfall amounts. Little chance of anything sig now 04/02/2012 16:07 " (Twitter) Looks like a downgrade in the NW.

Latest forecast snow depth is Lincs and East Anglia in the hot zone: http://www.weatherweb.net/tvweather/uksnow24.gif

Upgrade for snow for Northern areas: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1 Met office expanded amber area. This probably means that UKMO were over-playing the snow to rain transition. Also a boost to Western areas.

It is snowing now in Carlisle: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/ukukradf.htm The first front also has frontal snow.

At the moment it looks like where you will be will get approx. 8-12 hours of snow, up to 10cm, but over that if you are higher up. However this could change and such changes may be good or bad. WIB has posted some of those bad options, but at this time there is probably a higher confidence in the current forecast. As the warm front moves west to east it will hit the cold pool and slow, allowing the following cold front to catch up and occluding it. The cold air should undercut the warm air and with the dew points looking OK and with the 528 dam line over the SE quadrant then snow looks the best bet down here. It will be relatively cloudy on Sunday with still an easterly influence allowing temps to stay below 3c thus only a very slow thaw, if at all. If however the front(s) stall (slows) then certain areas may get a bonus and other areas may lose out on accumulations.

UKMO have been forecasting last night that the snow will clear the SE on Sunday morning turning to rain ("messy" they called it). 24 hours later at 6pm today, its now an all snow event and they are also tying in with GFS's forecast of snow showers possibly throughout Sunday in the SE. Again it appears that UKMO are playing catchup; GFS last night were very close to their current 12z.

I like this run: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=171;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13; Friday afternoon above; rush hour below: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=174;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

All very changeable at the moment. Compare the (usually unreliable) 06z: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=06;ext=141;file=tmp850;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13; At T135 the 850s are in the Europe mainland. Current run: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=135;file=tmp850;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13; This has pushed the possible snow event of mid-week west but gives the E/SE a better chance of snow from the East. Potential seen at T144: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=144;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

GFS: borderline for the SE: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=36;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13; The above is Saturday at Midnight. Below 3am Sunday http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=39;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13; Best for NE Saturday and E. Anglia Sat evening/Sunday early hours. By Sunday 9am: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=45;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13; Still in Kent at 12am: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=48;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13; Sunday 6pm: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=54;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13; Still hanging around SE corner. GFS has it stalling over this area but others not keen... 6am Monday: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=66;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13; 9pm Monday: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=84;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13; Still going... Tuesday 6am: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=90;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13; I dont believe it, but for fun.